Today gave up some ground in the ES 30-minute futures, albeit begrudgingly. Last night, the opening gap was a third wave. There was a lower low, and that made five waves down. So, it was about even odds that a lower low might follow. It did, but it is hard to make too much of it at this time.
As the chart above shows, all I can realistically count is 5-3-5, down to the intraday S2 pivot point as of now. The second wave down is not a 1.618 wave. Could it become more? It could, but the market would have to prove it's case by breaking today's low. If it does, then the question would be was there upward overlap or not. Right now there isn't yet.
Otherwise, the three-waves-down has to be respected for its possible power to be part of a triangle or just a correction that leads to a higher high. Let's see how it goes.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
https://schrts.co/sXrrVuwY
ReplyDeleteStill 14% above 200 ema.
Early look at the hrly -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bSqY.png
Morning TJ!
ReplyDeleteContinuing the discussion from last week re. your post from June called 'Trillions':
First I'd like to playback to you the key takeaways from that post to ensure we're aligned.
1) SUPERCYCLE Wave II is a SHARP = 1929 - 1932 (3 years)
2) SUPERCYCLE Wave IV 'should' be a FLAT or Compound due to alternation
3) SUPERCYCLE Wave IV 'should' also be at least 9 years because....bullet 4.
4) Primary ((4)) is a FLAT from 2000-2009 (9 years)
If above statements are valid:
a) How do you identify CYCLE Wave 4? It must be longer than Primary ((4)) right? So shouldn't the SUPERCYCLE Wave 4 be even longer than it?
b) Where/When is CYCLE Wave 2 and Primary ((2))? The question behind this question is , if SUPERCYCLE Wave 2 was only 3 years, wouldn't all lower degree wave 2s must be shorter than that to maintain degree validation? I'm having a hard to locating CYCLE and Primary Wave 2s less than 3 years.
Thanks
-TJ
a) Don't know where you are getting Cycle Wave '4' from. Supercycle [IV] should be made up of Cycle a, b, c or Cycle w, x ,y (or cycle triangle a,b,c,d,e) should it not?
Deleteb) If you are unfamiliar with these designations, see the discussion at this link, below, to a valid reference on Stockcharts.com
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:identifying_elliott_wave_patterns
c) Based on the above, any further discussion is premature.
TJ
Thanks. I'll brush up on the reading today. Using the naming convention found in a table at the link, can I rephrase my question as follows?
DeleteIf SUPERCYCLE Wave (II) is 3 years long, does the rules dictate that CYCLE II and PRIMARY ((2)) all have to be less than that in time?
Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-minute intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9HIDGu52/
The new down wave is already longer in price than the previous down leg as the Fibonacci ruler shows. It could go longer in price, and it could go longer in time. It could also be quite whippy, so exercise care.
TJ
5min, follow up to earlier morning post - (a look at the turn)
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bSvs.png
Spx - a = c =4123, 23% retrace =4133, 38% retrace =4097, as long as we stay above 50% retrace 4068, a I think we get a higher high.
DeleteES 30-min; possible 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal with wave (v) longer in price and time than wave (iii).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g1Og5wJc/
TJ
TJ that's not the case in cash though.
DeleteI mean we are in a 3rd down from top-wave 2 was a exp flat Imho
DeleteLower VIX high intra-day likely confirms a fifth down.
ReplyDeleteVIX (4hr), update to a prior post -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bSA2.png
It’s nice to see our sentiment indicators doing their job and warnings working. This pullback is setting up the new money trade.
Delete15min, current look -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bSEG.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete