Employment Pop

In some good news for the US economy, the payrolls report beat expectations (+916k actual vs +675k consensus) and the ES futures popped higher. In doing so, they reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, as shown below. This can allow for the third wave, iii, within wave (iii) in the following manner using The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse which is the Featured Post in this blog (upper right hand corner).

On this time frame, with about 106 candles so far, the EMA-34 indicates that a fourth wave, iv, has not been made yet. This could occur Sunday night into Monday. If wave iii of (iii) occurred on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) then wave iv would expect the EWO to return to near the zero line. Wave iv should alternate with wave ii and so a wave iv of different, shape, complexity or time might be a Flat or Triangle wave.

As we showed earlier in yesterday's comments, today's partial day (which will likely be combined with Sunday & Monday trading) closed over the upper Bollinger Band again - which happens approximately only 5% of the time. So, the probabilities of closing outside of the band are getting lower. While not impossible to make 5 or 6 closes outside of the band, each successive consecutive close over the upper band fights the odds.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend & holiday.

TraderJoe