Eventually, it will catch up with him. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, that is. At the press conference today, as the market was making new highs, he made some statements that were unsettling. Paraphrase, below.
- U.S. Money Market funds were still subject to 'runs' and solutions were still being sought.
- Some assets (like stocks) might be perceived to be high.
- Treasury market dealers seemed 'less committed' their role..
And a question he darn near choked on, was whether the Federal Government could even operate with higher interest rates if those appear, some day. As a result the market gave up much of it's gains. Here is the ES 60-minute chart. There has been a triangle under discussion for the last few days. This is how I think it all fits together.
Please refer to the ES 8-hour chart at this LINK for the larger picture on (a) and (b). Today's new highs did barely fulfill the requirements of the triangle, but they did. The alternate would likely have to be that the triangle develops a 'flat top' like a barrier triangle, and higher prices result from that, but that seems less likely, and so is a clear alternate, only.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Try as I might, I simply clould not count an impulse up from the putative E wave of a completed triangle.
ReplyDeleteIFF it is (and that is not for certain), then it may have counted as an Expanding Diagonal. The 'deep retrace', so far, may lend credence to that thought. But, it is best to take out the lows to draw a conclusion.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uu7YUgUC/
TJ
New high clearly obviates any notion of a truncated fifth but imho no sign whatwoever of a reversal...just my two pennies...
ReplyDeleteIF we go over the top, and we may have, the barrier triangle looks like the best options. (D) can be higher than (B) but 'must' close inside the triangle - which it did.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/umgy6
TJ
Thanks Tj
ReplyDeleteWhat is barrier triangle? Can you draw a chart as 4200 is crossed.
see below.
DeleteTJ
So a measured move would be 4226?(Roughly)
ReplyDelete...see below. Yes, there are ways it could get to 4,226-30; but that is likely the outside edge.
DeleteVIX (daily), Bollinger Band spread -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bWcX.png
The money-lenders are quite predictable. I figured they would try to gap price past RN redistance at 4200 with a liquidity flood. Watching YM 33850.00 as well. Continued vol supression/compression will either succeed, or it will fail. Either way, a very big move is coming. Unfortunately, in an era of CB hegemony, we have all learned that technical signals can, and often are negated. How we close Thursday I think will be significant.
DeleteI think you are 'stretching the truth' here about what you thought, Tachy. Here is an earlier excerpt.
Delete"TachyonApril 26, 2021 at 1:55 PM
Well, I certinly have no problem conceding when I am proven wrong. I had every expectation that price would at least tag 4200 but so far that level proving formidable resistance. I am still counting an imcomplete three with a possible fourth to come so we could still imho see price hit that level before a reversal. I am working on a good charting platform so I could provide some visual context for the ideas of S/R behind my thinking on the prevailing trend."
That's why this site is about wave counting, and not my 'greatest trades'. People will invent things in their head, and say things after the fact, to prove they were right all along.
TJ
GW - I agree, a spike higher is more probable.
DeleteLol! T.J you missed the point of that post entirely. Contary to your implying some kind of smug self-satisfaction about being "right", I clearly stated a willingness to admit being wrong when the facts bore that out. You totally twisted what I said. That is beneath you my friend... :)
Delete..oh no I didn't. You claimed you had previously 'knew' they would 'gap through' round-number resistance. You never stated such before. You keep trying to 'prove' your round number theory, when round numbers have little to do with it. What does 4,211 have to do with a round number? Nothing!
DeleteUntil the swingline low on daily ES at 4163.75 is taken out, the upper bb could be the destination.
ReplyDeleteEarly look 30min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bWkB.png
Good morning all. On the ES 60-minutes, it is best to stay with the contracting version of the triangle, as below. This fairly large gap 'should be' in the third wave position. Triangle provides a target of 'up to' 4,220.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0rFnbxiW/
The target does not have to be reached, but it could be. The upper daily Bollinger Band is around 4,216 - 4,220 at the moment,
TJ
(just fyi) ..also from daily Pivot points, we have tagged R2 at 4,206 and the next higher daily pivot is R3 at 4,219.50.
Delete(just fyi) .. price has hit a 1.618 extension, in one way of measuring.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/umrkw
TJ
This is where the fourth wave either proves itself in an alternation pattern or not.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/umstw
TJ
(just fyi) ..best current explanation of overlap, is a 'wave-in-a-wedge' is completed. Depends on not going over the high again.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/umt4w
TJ
ES 5-min (just fyi).. tentative down count; no sign of retrace, yet. Sorry, bad link the first time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/umti1
TJ
ES 5-min (just fyi) .. price has pierced the down trend line. Common targets for a Flat, are shown.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/umtpo
TJ
..first target at 1.618 reached.
Delete30min update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bWom.png
ES 5-min ..down through the low; watch to see if it wants to become a 'compound flat' or 'double flat' to extend the correction in time and price.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/umum7
TJ
now through wave (E) of triangle, lower.
Delete..mmhmm.. just like that; shorter wave and upward overlap. Lots of possibilities now; failed flat, diagonal - best to let the market sort it out.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/umv7p
TJ
ES 5-min; one of two options is a 'failed flat' which would have given more time to an upward correction - and may not be finished. It 'could' indicate a strong third wave ahead.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/umvoh
Second option is a simple a,b,c down which 'might' start a diagonal, lower.
TJ
(B) seems to be 5 wave shouldn''t it be 3
Delete..now up and over prior wave; did not fail.
DeleteLooks like 5 down imho, with deep 2 up underway...
ReplyDeleteNow looking like a "b" imho...
ReplyDeleteI'm going like this for now ..., especially without the triangle low having been exceeded.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/umwg7
TJ
..reason, the c wave of bold b looks too large - by degree labeling - to be an interior wave of the initial down move.
DeleteThanks, ET!
ReplyDelete..welcome
DeleteJust to clarify (for me at least). If we finished c of (b) with the move up out of the triangle, then we should be in (c) down now, correct? If so, we should not exceed the prior high?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I just want to be clear; look at 4,200. There is no 'magic' at that number. There is only whether we go over the high or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/umwv7
TJ
(just fyi) .. current down wave is longer in price than (B)/ii. So, either we are in a fourth wave, or the degree has changed. That means the only thing that matters now is whether we overlap (A)/i, up.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/umx56
TJ
Saying round numbers are significant is not the same as saying there is anything "magical" about them. While I understand your focus is application of EW methodology, it is myopic and arrogant to contend in a dismissive way, that NOTHING ELSE informs our understanding of market price action T.J. I really do not get your harping on this issue. Lighten up bud. It's just one man's opinion and has worked well for me, that's it. I am done commenting.
DeleteGlad I hit a little bit of a nerve. I am really only trying to get you interested of understanding this concept of 'degree labeling'. It is how I sorted out "three-down" from "five-down" today. You took a guess instead of looking at measurements. It would be great if you might apply yourself to it. Then, you would have more tools in the arsenal. Few seem to want to measure. That is all folks!
DeleteTJ