Thursday, April 8, 2021

NQ Too!

As the chart below shows, today the NQ daily futures also made a minimum of a 90% up wave. See the Fibonacci measurement. As you probably know by now, that 90% level is the 'minimum' required if the up wave is to be the B-3 wave of a Flat, as well as the ES.

NQ Futures - Daily - Up Wave at >90%

 

Meanwhile, the ES futures remain in their 4-hr channel and are approaching equality as the chart below shows. 

ES Futures - 4 Hr - In channel

The up wave is still diverging with even higher price highs on lower highs in the Elliott Wave Oscillator. I have gone back-and-forth a bit on the count of this up wave, and noted, "B-3 waves are sometimes very difficult to pin down". It 'still' could be ((w))-((x))-((y)), but this is OK for now.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

46 comments:

  1. Thks!

    15min inverted H&S target met. 👍

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  2. The Q's RSI 5 diverged today 98.59, with an opening gap up. Even at that we still have a dovish fed. I should also note lower volume all week.

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    Replies
    1. look at volume right before feb 19 2020 - this week looks familiar

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  3. I have never seen weekly series gaps such as those currently on display in NDX. They are typically seen at the start. or end of strong bull runs. Obviously there is nothing "typical" about the current market..except one...

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  4. ES over 4100. Interesting they waited to do it in futures...very significant imho...

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  5. ES (wkly) Apex, measures update -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bLSA.png

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  6. A significant feature of ES price action today is that the futures settled at the same as cash (within +/- 2 pts) whereas the June contract is now nowhere near settlement. It is typical for the futures to converge with cash close to settlement, but much less so more than two months out.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. The spread is 8 handles. The reason futures closed the same as cash is because futures rallied after cash closed.

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  7. XLRE - daily, 5 up (or close)?

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bLVx.png

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  8. With a dovish fed shouldn't we expect 10 year yields to continue rising?

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  9. https://schrts.co/VkvYnqTD

    We are in nose bleed area with tight BB. Rarely do you get this high. I’m bullish this year, but not at this moment.

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    Replies
    1. Lol. Just getting ready to post the same. Some add'l thoughts. :o)

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  10. Stocks above 200ma -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bMcE.png

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  11. (MarketWatch)
    8:36a
    Breaking U.S. PPI data release delayed - government website frozen

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  12. Here is the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and nearby fractals.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ld2hDaDJ/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..first three down (red) fractals back have been broken ...

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  13. Inflation is a risk? Really? With such low lumber and grain prices?? But daddy Powell said don't worry!

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  14. ES 30-min; the low may now be seen as a fractal. All down (red) 'interior' fractals were hit, and removed.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/BLwrhzJy/

    TJ

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  15. Inflation formula...well when in power just change the formula public will never notice..if I recall many years ago we now calculate inflation with the new gage..chained inflation..and there you have it...ahh so much better. :)

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  16. Thanks TJ, I am targeting NQ 14400 based on measured move from the neckline of the IHS.

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  17. 15min update - observations

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bMgC.png

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  18. ES 30-min, there is now another valid up (green) fractal.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ld1XDxcf/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..that up (green) fractal, has just broken higher.

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  19. Potential H&S emerging (if overnight high not exceeded)

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    Replies
    1. [Should this play out] (depending upon breakdown pt), would look to retest lows on 7th.

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    2. I was thinking that might be possible too; given the 'long wave in time' yesterday.

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  20. ES 30-min; second up (green) fractal back has also been exceeded higher. ES 30-min Futures are beginning to look like another triangle. Meanwhile, SPY cash currently looks like this.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HSNIZRpo/

    TJ

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  21. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-mania-stock-inflows-past-5-months-exceed-inflows-prior-12-years

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  22. 15min update - small inverted vs larger reg. H&S -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bMig.png

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  23. Replies
    1. NQ (30 min) ..don't think so; wave four would be exceptionally large compared to two. BUT, possible of :5 down to the mid-point, and an expanded flat. Then, a lower low would be needed.

      TJ

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  24. New high, negating possible reg. H&S (on cfd 15min chart posted above)

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  25. On the ES 30-min; is it possible we are seeing an ending expanding diagonal??! The time signatures seem way off for other structures.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wZ0sKobS/

    As an 'ending' expanding diagonal, it 'can' fail to make it's targets, but being Friday, it certainly can make them, too.

    This is yet another high, on yet another divergence.

    TJ

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  26. Trend remains up. Looking for how things close on Monday before picking sides. Have a great week-end everyone and thanks much Greywaver for isightful charts and comments!

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  27. Bigger pic look (4hr), and observations -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bMjv.png

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  28. Meanwhile, back at cash, SPY remains in its wedge for the time being.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/nvjeZS7s/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Here's what Im seeing on the lower TF 5min SPY -

      https://funkyimg.com/i/3bMkh.png

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    2. Something revved 'em up! :o)

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  29. Have great W.E all..Joe thanks much for your dedication...impressive. :)

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  30. ES 30-min; there is ES 4,108; structure meets the length requirements in the potential expanding diagonal.

    TJ

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  31. Looks like the 2-4 TL has been breached.

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