Stocks are often seasonally positive around holiday weeks, and then, on this one, the cash market was not allowed to trade the Employment Pop until today, either. So - quick as a bunny - stocks sprinted higher and made new all-time-highs.
Around noon, the ES 30-minute futures made a "spinning top" candle and we called it out, but said it needed some confirming lower candles. Those did occur, and a higher high was not made by the futures settle. Speaking of settlement, today did settle over the upper Daily Bollinger Band - a place where the so-called Smart Money often (but not always) takes some profit off of the table. That daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - 1 Day - Over Upper Band |
From the chart above, the bias is still up - as price is over the 18-day SMA - and the daily slow stochastic is embedded again. However, as we noted before, price closed up over the upper band, and this for the second day running. The rough probability of this happening is less than 5% of the time.
Soon stocks will face first quarter earnings reports, and it should be noted that stimulus was in place for only a portion of the first quarter.
From an Elliott Wave perspective the Minor B wave can still be within range. Tomorrow is Tuesday, and, often, not always, a strong Monday is followed by a Tuesday reversal. Let's see what the market has in store.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
After 2 or more closes above the upper band---a sell signal is given when price then closes below the upper band.
ReplyDeleteES (wkly) observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bKbh.png
https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/2021/04/05/2021-apr-05/
DeleteStocks above 50 & 200 getting frothy again
Deleterabbit stew is delicious!
ReplyDelete2hr update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bKfy.png
VIX - VXN - CPCE are sending a warning right now.
DeleteIn reference to Friday's 30 min chart A/O, today's rally now shows the highest peak.
ReplyDeleteClearly a third wave up. Most did not see it coming.
DeleteBTC (daily) observations (if interested) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bKhn.png
Anyone else see the insane minute candles on the DXY? Any hypothesies?
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 4-Hr chart. As a reminder, the B-3 wave up in a Flat 'should be' in three waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vwlvAYr5/
We are currently channeling well for the B-3 wave, and that would be typical. Nothing here yet rules out further highs, but remember the daily close was over the upper Boolinger Band two days running. More later..
TJ
its NOT a B wave
Deletewhen will you admit you have been WRONG for months
tony caldaro tried to teach you
but you are too stubborn to learn
Hello mischik
ReplyDeleteI think Joe has shown more than enough that this “probably” is a B WAVE. Nothing is for sure but I think he has a strong case!
Maybe instead of just saying he is wrong, why don’t you try to back something up with data?
Not ment as critics but come on man, when you say something like that, it’s better you give your chart and the reason for it, and better show where joe’s chart is wrong.
Otherwise you better stay with tony caldaro?
Thank you
on my site since april i have been saying
DeleteSTRAIGHT UP for a year
and have posted that here MANY times
maybe you havent seen it because TJ deletes anything that
calls into question his " counts "" which are total BS
Tony paased away...
Deletemischik not sure what you are getting so excited about, lol! T.J has repeatedly made it clear that the site is only about an academic exercise in learning to count waves, nothing more. He has never once recommended that anyone actually make trades based on his counts so I think you are being a bit unfair.
DeleteUnfortunately ..according to my records, mischik is a liar, liar, pants-on-fire ..
Delete"mischik replied to a comment on "Employment Pop"
Apr 3, 2021
yes as described ... bonds are a buy stocks are a sell dont overthink it.
Mischik, as I have said before, posting at this site is a privilege and not a right. Either behave yourself or your comments will continue to go to spam.
TJ
you sell at targets ........
Deleteto make money you have to sell
spx hit target ..its a sell
thats how i beat the spx by over 10 % last year
not by using nonsense BS counts
also bonds remain a buy
but i took profit this am on bonds bot last week
Perhaps you should go back to your site and continue beating the SP500?
Deletesounds like sour grapes from you making losing trades ...
Deletekeep trying ...someday you will guess correctly
Which is it, mischik? STRAIGHT UP, or STRAIGHT DOWN - since the front part of your small brain seems to only be able these two concepts. On the other hand, it is clear the reptilian portion of your lower nervous system refuses to allow you to be courteous to anyone here. So you will be treated as you treat others and all further posts will go to spam.
DeleteYou immediately lay off the people on this site who are doing real work or a complaint will be filed against your account.
TJ
mischik is a documented liar, and is not interested in Elliott Wave counting. No one else should reply to his posts. I'll handle the situation from here.
DeleteComments this morning seem fitting for a long in the tooth move.
ReplyDeleteWe are finally rich to the money machine as well.
Delete2hr update - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bKBE.png
small caps may have finished a little ABC retrace today. Russell not nearly as optimistic as the large cap indexes.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like sideways consolidation in a clear uptrend. Whether the current uptrend is impulsive or correctvive I think a big clue to its completion will be the vigor of the reversal and Russell does not look to be like it is done. Just my two pence.
DeleteReally? I see 5 waves down and 3 up from 2306. The move down was impulsive. Oil also not confirming the bull case this week.
Deleteis there an EW reason this move so far in the b wave is not all the (i) wave and (ii) down is yet to happen? referring back to your count several days back outlining a 5 wave b up. the implication is the impulse invalidation may not then be valid.
ReplyDeletesnp .. so your comment is a little confusing; I have since the post on March 30th, referred to this as a potential B-3 wave up. That means a Minor B wave should occur in three wavess. Here is the March 30th post.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/03/relevant-charts.html
There were three waves down to A-3; now three waves up over the top for a B-3 wave.
On the daily chart, today we are trading between the 138% and 150% external retrace of the A-3 wave; which is typical for "B" waves in a Flat. Price 'should' not go too much beyond that for a "B" wave unless the Intermediate (X) wave is to be a triangle. So, when you discuss the 'b' wave, I'm not sure what you are referring to. I am being 'degree specific' here.
TJ
SPY cash - here is the best alternate for cash IFF price begins to move down in more of a hurry. It 'may' apply to futures too. That's the thing about B-3 waves; difficult to nail down. But, this one seems to have reasonable degree labeling.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VjNzmFX3/
TJ
By-the-way, there are fully 13+ open gaps in the Daily SPX chart just since the Oct/Nov low. As far as memory serves, this is locally unprecedented. Never seen that many that I can recall.
ReplyDeleteTJ
GEO (mthly) - off subject, but thought this long term chart was interesting ...
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bKEe.png
SPY 5-min; now below the micro ((B)) wave shown. There is some chance it is a triangle, but not below ES 4,057.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EYSp7dsf/
TJ
Seems to me that works only as a B wave triangle.
ReplyDeleteHere's the SPY at the end of the day. Some measurements only at this point. First, the prior day's most recent down wave was undercut. This tends to rule out a triangle. Next, the second down wave in the small channel is indeed longer in price than the first wave down, but the second wave down is 'shorter in time' than the first wave down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nul4l2ev/
Next, in the up direction, one has to watch the length of the up wave in that direction to see if it becomes longer in price than the prior up wave.
TJ
Appreciate your wave counting skills. It’s not easy doing it correctly.
Delete