In the overnight and until the cash market opened, ES prices climbed to 4,211, and after the cash market open staged a reversal. As you can see below on the ES 5-minute chart, we could only count three-waves down in the channel shown.
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| ES Futures - 5 Minutes - Whippy |
Then, promptly after noon, prices staged a rally, that we could again only count in three-waves up, so far. And prices did not go over the high by the settle. Prices then broke the channel to the down side and traded somewhat sideways. The down move exceeds the previous ((B)) wave, down, in both price and time. So, there is either a new wave started lower or it would be a fourth wave of an impulse. So, we can not categorically rule out that the high won't be exceeded again. With three-waves-down, it would most likely mean than any such wave starting downward would be a diagonal. There is clearly a "deep retrace" wave at this point.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
An aside - SPXcfd (PnF) Interesting, but is it telling us something?
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bWz6.png
5min, late update -
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Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen, along with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation), and local fractals. The most recent down fractal has been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/afMm1Jae/
Price is below the daily pivot point, PP, and is sitting on support S1.
TJ
There is now a new up (green) fractal, closer in.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MUdjsX8C/
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/21DXFZVW/
ReplyDeleteES 30-min, down (red) fractal moves to the recent low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RqXbjEzJ/
TJ
SPY 15-min, now appears to have five-waves down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3dJ5fVKF/
TJ
ES 15-min futures might be able to be counted like this .
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/una9b
TJ
ES futures just took out the overnight low.
Deletetrying to keep track of where we are, so would that have possibly completed the correction ( C/IV of iii ) ?
ReplyDeleteno, I don't think so. Thanks for logging in. Please go back to this 8-hr chart.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/04/reminder-of-intraday.html
TJ
ES-Daily .. while there may be a larger correction over the noon hour, in the daily chart, the slow stochastic is at 81. IFF it loses it today, then there is a trip possible to the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2gvM5hMX/
Also, yesterday was an "outside day, up". And if the low of such a day is exceeded lower within two trading days, then it constitutes a trap for the bulls, and might also indicate a trip down to the 18-day SMA.
Today is the 'last-day-of-the-month' with usual 'window dressing' and resultant sloppiness. Monday would be the first day of the new month with potential inflows from the usual roll-over sources, company bonus plans, pension plans, etc.
TJ
Hello, great posts and relly informative. one question for me is how we transition from a top, whether it be a intraday, daily or major top. Do we need an ABC before we start imploding down. Surely Bear Markets can be impulisve (12345) or can they only ever be variations of an aBC (5-3-5) etc
ReplyDeleteThe word 'imploding' suggests something that most people would agree on as being large (multi-week) and disruptive. I have expressed my longer range views at these two posts.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html
and
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/03/trillions-more-dow-at-618-extension-of.html
First we have to finish Primary ((B)) up, which is itself a bear market wave, not a bull-market wave. Often times the large move starts with a 'failure', like the fifth wave failure in ((C)), the move to the high yesterday afternoon, in the chart above.
TJ
4hr, observations -
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There goes the swing line low on daily ES.
ReplyDeleteBull trap yesterday?
Delete..very possible!
DeleteES 30-min; now have lower daily high, lower daily low. Possible we are going lower by diagonal.
ReplyDeleteTJ
It may also be a extended 5th of c wave of flat.
DeleteI was watching this closely all day today. As I said, we may have gone lower by diagonal. It may be the 'a' wave of a larger expanding diagonal. It is very choppy and hesitant.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/und6-
The 'c' wave down might come in the Sunday overnight. Depends how much 'front-running' of the first of the month money occurs.
TJ
..and it 'may' be a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal.
Delete...yup; now up over the diagonal, likely confirming at least the 'onset' of a 'b' wave up. If that diagonal is 'actually' 5-3-5-3-5, then it may only be leading. So, the b wave might be a Flat.
DeleteThank you for responding and posting so often today, I went and read more about the different types of flats. Slowly I'm getting the hang of this.
Deletewelcome, and nice to hear rprit.
DeleteTJ