Yesterday, at 2 PM, as per the comments, my market view changed from neutral to negative - at least temporarily. This is based on a completed Elliott Wave Count, and a break of certain trend lines. Today, after making only a marginal new high, we closed below that level.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Completed Minor B-3? |
Better confirmation would occur if prices trade below the EMA-34, if the Elliott Wave Oscillator trades below the zero line, and if prices trade below minuet wave (iv) of minute ((c)).
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Well past fib retracements and top of potential diagonal trend-line clearly breached. I believe in EWT a second wave can actually retrace 100% of a first wave,just not make a higher high. The CBS continue their magic, and I continue to watch 4100 and until breaks and becomes resistance I lean bullish, If a second wave underway, 4100 falls today, and hard. If not, we tag 4200 at the very least imho.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. Not shown here (due to time delay), although we were headed in the right direction with a potential (c) wave, up, the futures did just nick past the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x6fzWdLp/
The down count had to be diagonal a, then b, then the wave after it had to be c, down.
TJ
So, (fyi only) Russell futures do not have a new high yet; and in fact, have a lower high, and lower local low. NQ futures do not have a new high yet.
ReplyDelete..and ES futures with another local high, are into the weekly confluence area around 4,150.
DeleteCPCE - currently at 34. That has been a level for reversals in the past. Spx stocks above 20 dma is down on the day.
DeleteAlso, ..just fyi .. it is 'possible' to count a 5 = 1, around here. But, I would want to break that triangle 4th wave low before anything meaningful.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uhbbm
TJ
further ..just fyi .. at this new higher high wave ((4)) is now located at the 0.382 retracement point.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uhbz5
TJ
Also, we are at the upper trend line from November high.
DeleteTJ's definition of Tachyon's "violent": If there was a new fourth wave minuet (iv) of minute ((c)) at yesterday's low, then if today is wave (v), then a new low below the low of wave (iv) should occur in 'less time' than wave (iv)-to-(v) took to build.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Hey TJ -
ReplyDeleteI used to post frequently, but has been a while. Hope all is well. I read your post last night called "Trillions' from June of last year. As you may recall, that's the post in which you established that the 2018 high was a Cycle V and a SuperCycle wave III.
Firstly, truly a work of art in how you arrived at your conclusion!
I also realize that you've flipped to a negative bias recently (paraphrasing). If I did the math right, the expanded B wave from March 2020 lows hit exactly 1.618 today!
Several questions if you don't mind:
1) How 'expanded' can B waves get? Beyond 1.618 has to be rare IMO. Thoughts?
2) When the Primary ((B)) is confirmed, is the expectation that primary ((C)) would take us below March 2020 lows? If yes, would the expectation be for that to occur rapidly in C wave fashion?
3) My understanding is that the Primary ((C)) would just be a conclusion of Cycle A wave, with B and C to be completed for a SuperCycle IV. Is that right? Are we looking at Wave 4 chop action for next 5-10 years maybe?
Thanks!
I also go by TJ so apologies in advance to the readers for any confusion. I'm definitely not the EW genius.
DeleteHi TJ -
Delete1. Beyond 1.618 a triangle or failure flat is more likely than a typical expanded flat is all.
2. Probably.
3. Likely, yes. Likely.
TJ
Follow up question on 1. A triangle can eat up a lot of time. But, failure flat waves typically have a strong rebound back to all time highs and start next impulse. Would you agree that a failure flat would make the SuperCycle Wave IV too short in time compared to Wave 2 from Great Depression so it's less likely? Or would the failure wave C would be just first leg of a complex correction?
DeleteThx
..not sure yet. Cart before the horse, right now.
DeleteHere is an updated short term chart; it is also very interesting where the daily pivot points reside.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uhcvv
TJ
..last typical stop for a wave is 5 = 0.618 x net (1-to-3)
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uhdow
TJ
Trek to 4200 looking labored but I still expect it. We are 48 points away and a spike into the close could seal the deal. I'm out after today's anticipated ramp;risk reward outcomes getting slim, despite my being short-term bullish above 4100.
ReplyDeleteWell, then there's this wedge towards the top; needs confirmation.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uhets
Biden to announce sanctions against Russia this afternoon.
TJ
..just fyi ..
Deletehttps://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/russia-sanctions-expel-officials-hacking-election/index.html
TJ
Yeh...a classic wedge throw-over would just about do it...
DeleteES 15-min ..first breech of lower wedge line; not fatal as it's not real impulsive yet. But something to keep an eye on.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uhf14
TJ
ES 15-min; back-test of lower wedge line is failing with lower lows, so far.
DeleteZelensky got wise to the incredibly asinine notion that they could militarily reclaim Crimea so the war-mongers of course have to find another way to stir the pot...meanwhile the CCP continues to harass Taiwan while Biden sucks his thumb...
Delete(just fyi) ES 15-min; IFF price gets below 4,153, then a larger diagonal would be ruled out, as the fourth wave would be larger than the second wave.
DeleteYeh...I had 4153.88
DeleteIs this spread coincident or leading? Seems we may drop in rates.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/dqdIrfdp
Looks like we get 4200 in ES...and then...???!!! We shall see... :)
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete