Just like on Friday, where we expected sloppiness due to the end-of-month so-called 'window-dressing', today we alerted readers to watch for 'first of the month money' resulting from the inflows seen from pension funds, 401k's, company bonus plans, dividend reinvestment schemes and the like. That money did come in the overnight futures as they 'front-ran' these likely automatically required purchases and, then, into the cash open. But, today's pop was not enough to send prices over the prior high. In the after hours tonight, the ES daily futures appear to be losing the slow stochastic as per the chart below.
Prices sold off a bit towards the end of yesterday's session, and are continuing a bit tonight. If they continue lower, the 18-day SMA (or line-in-the-sand) may be the first target, with the lower daily Bollinger Band the second target.
Intraday, we showed a way to count the money inflow. So, it remains to be seen if a lower low day will result sending the swing-line lower, and whether there will be a close below the 18-day SMA to suggest a trend lower on the swing line.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
30min, follow up to prior post (this morning) -
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30min morning update -
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Good morning. New ES daily low. Likey sets the swing line lower, with lower highs and lower lows.
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DJT - Courtesy of SentimenTrader (thought this was interesting) ...
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👍
DeleteVIX & VXN moving higher. Q’s BB are so tight, watch out.
DeleteVix above resistance at 20. I think 23 to 24 is probable.
DeleteBelow ES 4,163 there is a way to count this drop as the third leg of an expanding diagonal. It is longer in price and time than the first a-b-c, down. But there may be other ways to look at it later such as a failure top.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to your take.
DeleteHope you're ok.
DeleteRSI now at 20 level. Looking for bounce of some degree. (basis 30min)
ReplyDelete4hr, possibility? Perhaps.
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Bonds - Gold, observations (if interested) -
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👍 nice chart
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lDhTDz7a/
ReplyDeletebase on rescent up wave made higher high in MACD and RSI ( compare to previous wave), I think we still have one more wave up.
yep, I think that's been TJ's primary count on this blog. I think that some indices might end up with a truncated last wave up. Lets see.
DeleteNo. The counts are not the same. My count is a double zigzag (W),(X),(Y) to this point, as shown at this link.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/04/its-time-to-talk-about-time.html
I have only been considering the double zigzag count, with a possible extension to the triple zigzag. I know things get lost in the closer-in details, but it has all been published before.
TJ (the real one)
TJ, if you want to continue commenting here, which is fine, could you please alter your login name? I'd appreciate it. I just don't want readers to get confused. Thanks in advance.
DeleteTJ
ES (daily), observations - (10min delay)
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A reset below 50 dma would be healthy for the bull run. We shall see.
DeleteAn aside - US$ (qtrly) A long term look w/observations (if interested)
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A new post is started for the next day.
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