Windows Dressed

In the comments today, we reminded readers that - today being the last day of the month - could see some sloppiness, as portfolio managers juggled their positions around for the new month. It was a fairly sloppy day, drifting after an initial pop higher. Similarly, Tuesday is the first trading day of the new month for cash equities, and the typical inflows from usual sources is 'often' seen. Further, we showed this plausible up count on the ES 2-Hr chart. And here is what was written ...

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Up Wave in a Wedge

Looking at the up wave from 4,029: there are 138 candles on the chart. The wave is diverging all the way up on the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The wave is in a wedge. And, very importantly, the wave has reached the 90% level.

This doesn't necessarily mean the wave is over. But, also very importantly, in order to adhere to degree labeling, the first subwave of y 'has to be' shorter than all of w, which it is in this format (and only in this format I think). Further, there is one level of overlap to contend with.

So, this can still be the (b) wave of a barrier triangle or a flat (or expanded flat over the high).

Next, I added that given the size of the initial 'x' wave, I would not be opposed to an 'x' wave which was longer in downward price. In other words, the light blue dashed line is the current lower wedge line. It is shown as dashed because it might be necessary to modify it slightly for a longer wave 'x'. So, that modified line is shown as dashed purple.

In addition we said there is a way to count a smaller degree potential triangle on the ES 30-min chart. But, it is only a potential and could easily devolve into a larger flat wave in the overnight session(s). And, by the end of the session, there was an additional level of overlap to contend with. Still it looks like this up wave should be wrapped up within a couple of days.

Let's see how it goes, and have a nice weekend & holiday if you are celebrating it.

TraderJoe