At this point in time, there are potentials for several waves possibilities. A triangle is still plausible, although at this point a barrier triangle with (b), and (d) roughly equal in height to wave ((iii)) must be included (and maybe later an expanding triangle will need to be). But, so is a diagonal. Oh yes, but so is a Flat wave, or an expanded flat. And so is a pure fifth wave higher - assuming wave ((iv)) was made at the 4,029 low. Here is the ES 4-Hr chart.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Flexibility |
All we really have at this point are some very tentative potential trend lines, assuming market momentum continues higher for a bit, and a pretty clear line of horizontal support and resistance. This condition is what I have written about earlier as The Fourth Wave Conundrum (one such post was back in 2017 at this LINK). You are seeing it here at a minuet degree of trend. It happens at all degrees of trend. Because there are over 8 different styles of waves that can occur as typical fourth waves, one has less than a 15% chance of getting the pattern correct by random chance.
The market knows that. It makes for pretty slim odds. The other thing we know is that the bias remains up, as price remains over the 18-day SMA.
So, all-in-all, it calls for maximum flexibility until the character of further waves is shown. As I said in the article in the link, anyone who feigns certainty might have another product - like snake oil - to sell.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Yes indeed. B waves and fourth waves notoriously intractable...
ReplyDeleteAnd 'X' waves, too.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/MaswQujf
ReplyDeleteNYAD at new high but stocks above 50 dma diverging.
I could probably make a case for a completed triangle on NQ 1-hr chart with no problem.
ReplyDeleteall we need is some upward momentum.
Good morning all. Looking at the up wave from 4,029: there are 138 candles on the chart. The wave is diverging all the way up on the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The wave is in a wedge. And, very importantly, the wave has reached the 90% level.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uz0zo
This doesn't necessarily mean the wave is over. But, also very importantly, in order to adhere to degree labeling, the first subwave of y 'has to be' shorter than all of w, which it is in this format (and only in this format I think). Further, there is one level of overlap to contend with.
Can be a barrier triangle or a flat (or expanded flat over the high).
TJ
Definitely a wedge that’s getting squeezed.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr; also hit 90% retrace on the open.
ReplyDeleteTJ
It does appear Mr. Market is loathe to leave any "unfinished business"in the form if unfilled over-head gaps. Looks like DJIA just might conclude its own unfinished business today.
ReplyDeleteHere's the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MONqXdoL/
The chart is delayed 15-min. Yet, the first fractal back has been exceeded lower. Watch for market to possibly engage lower trend line at some point and for some whippy behavior.
TJ
This is also a reminder that today is the 'last trading day of the month' which is 'often', not always, accompanied by some sloppiness due to 'window dressing'. And Tuesday is the first trading day of the month which 'often' sees the inflows from pensions, bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, 401k's, etc.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 2-hr; lower trend line engaged.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uz3ge
I will just note that given the size of the first 'x' wave, I am not opposed to seeing a larger 'x' wave here. Doesn't have to form that way, but dropping the lower trend line once to meet a larger 'x' wave would not be out of the ordinary.
TJ
..also, this created yet another level of overlap on previous waves.
DeleteTJ
SPY (15min) -
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ES 5-min; here are some thoughts on the very close-in count. This could be a 'last chance' wave ((4)); or the wave invalidates with another flat: this one upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uz5aw
TJ
u..huh .. downward overlap. Messy.
DeleteTJ
here's a bit of an update: still a bit messy. Down wave has made a 62% retrace. Watch to see if goes deeper or not.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uz6ai
TJ
Tj,
DeleteThanks for all you do. This weekend or whenever if you have a chance, Would you please do a link to your write up on LD 3rd waves please?
Thanks in advance, Happy memorial day weekend.
Just for clarification; ES 15-min, here is the triangle or flat being referred to on a larger scale picture.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L6jnRy3m/
Note, there is one way to consider the triangle complete if they want to start front-running the 'first-of-the-month' money later today. And there is still a way that a triangle or a flat can be in progress,
TJ
Dicey market. Price appears vulnerable to downward break from rising wedge, BUT, another close above 4200 brings 4300 into Plat imho.
ReplyDeleteES new overnight low, and below a 62% retrace. Traveled down to 100-per SMA on the intraday chart, and close to the daily pivot of 4,200 at 4,201. Can stay in a triangle, or travel lower in the overnight(s) if it wants.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (15min) update to this morning's post - e.o.d.
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c9nz.png
VIX and UVXY impulsive move off lows into the close despite SPX retention of 4200 rn. Dicey market. Have a great week-end all!
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ