Shorter term on the ES futures 4-Hr chart, below, prices fell out of the most recent upwardly slanting parallel.
We don't know a triangle is forming until we get better confirmation of overlaps, but it looks like a good start. Triangles can be whippy, make unexpected moves, and be difficult to trade. That is why they usually occur on shrinking volume. Who wants to be unwitting victim to just a market algorithm, right?
Besides the shrinking volume, triangles are characterized by sideways movement of the EMA-34, and indicators like the MACD. Triangle waves can also show a lot of 'compression' intraday until one of the waves decides to just cut loose.
All we know today is that the up wave lost some momentum. Besides a triangle, other three-wave interpretations are possible. Like IFF the next wave go over the top instead of below the EMA-34, then perhaps a contracting diagonal is possible. But, we're not there yet, so we'll go with what things looks like at the moment.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The lower triangle boundary just at about 4100. A reversal there or brief breach followed by intra-day recovery imho strengthen the case for a triangle.
ReplyDeleteAgree.
DeleteTJ
https://schrts.co/ufNtaPVm
ReplyDelete👍 thanks TJ. The down volume has been greater vs. up volume since the top.
https://schrts.co/ZJAARCAJ Still diverging.
ReplyDeleteMO (wkly/dly) A recent Weinstein candidate and observations [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c8fW.png
Good morning all. Here is an initial look at the ES 15-min.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uy3cp
TJ
Looks like overlap within your (1). Can you highlight the breakdown of it?
DeleteThanks
..need to seem something clarifying yet. We may be in a smaller diagonal c wave. or triangle b wave yet.
DeleteDXY (hrly) update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c8mW.png
DXY has reached the 1.618 level.
DeleteAn aside - Are these "weeds" about to begin growing?
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c8nT.png
ES 30-min; SPY 15-min. At this point we need some clarifying waves. It is very difficult to know which is correct.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uy7ss
TJ
Really it has been a very difficult day today, with overlappings and many waves in abc.
DeleteIf we fail at current level, looks like we could accelerate downward (basis SPY 15min).
ReplyDeleteSPY (15min) what Im seeing currently -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c8pT.png
Daily chart looks like three down and three up so far...
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bEn3hcam/
ReplyDeleteI think, from a practical perspective, and taking a simplified view, we have to assume the current up wave is over until proven otherwise. The red line on this chart is all important at the moment. If we see one single tick above this line it'll be back to the drawing board. A lot of great comments and charts on this board - beats out the info on C N B C anyday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eiArBRqa/
ReplyDeleteIf we are headed lower short term this might be the route to get there. I've seen a lot of struggling 1st waves both up and down that then lead to much bigger things. If you think the potential triangle here is flawed please criticize.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/I1XkxYaL/
ReplyDeleteThere's an island bottom on the S&P chart.