The equity market as measured by the ES E-mini S&P500 futures, dropped early in the day, crossing below the lower daily Bollinger Band, as in the daily chart, below. To paraphrase Ira Epstein (see my article on his guidelines for trading at this IRA link), "this is not such a good place to add new shorts." It wasn't and prices rebounded as we counted five-wave-up, then a higher high with possibly more to come.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Weak Hammer |
In the process, by the settle, the daily pattern made a weak hammer candle, with still a red body. None the less, you can see that there is a tentative trend line up from the lows. It is still possible we will make a triangle-shaped wave. We don't have to, but there is a good probability of doing so before a major top.
The Bollinger Bands are pretty much sideways, and the daily slow stochastic is not in over-bought territory, so going back to the 18-day SMA can not be ruled out.
In interesting news, CNBC reported that Ford was to halt production of F-150, Bronco Sport and other vehicles due to chip shortage (link to story HERE). But beyond that, for the crypto buffs, I hope they paid attention to THIS story that the block chain has lost billions due to being hacked. Hey! The block chain was supposed to be non-hackable, and criminals were supposed to have complete anonymity as a result. It was one of the supposed selling points for the crypto's. Oh well. Throw in another loss of a few billion .. (a few billion here, a few billion there ...) and before you know it ... you know how the story ends.
Meanwhile, have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
For BBRider - just standard stuff (nothing magic) :o) - (Weinstein template)
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Thx for the response.
DeleteNice work ET.
ReplyDeleteJune Stocks and Commodities magazine Carley Garner noted the mini bitcoin futures are coming out. She noted when bitcoin futures started trading in 2017 price was 20,000 dropped to 5,000.
I checked TDameritrade and mini bitcoin started trading a few weeks ago before price dropped and all the bad news. ET I guess double whammy
Is the dollar going to reverse direction? I've been wondering, so what I noticed is a wedge from January 2017 top to March 2020 top then February 2018 low to January 2021 low. If I look at the March 2020 top to January 2021 low inside of a 2 day chart I notice a wedge. We still haven't made a lower low. I think the dollar is changing directions. I'll add a dirty non-offensive example.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5uipxbVZ/
I agree dollar will really and commodities will fall back
DeleteJoe, I know your not a crypto fan but with it being a newer issue so to speak could you do an EW analysis of it. Ty. Sam
ReplyDeletealready did that here; not interested in anything further.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/02/bitcoin-special.html
TJ
The Buck (wkly) update -
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Hi Tj,
ReplyDeleteI read that bitcoin is used to purchase stocks,futures and options ? Many brokerages allowing.
https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/22875/can-i-buy-stocks-with-bitcoin
Overseas exchanges from last 2 years.
https://bitcoinist.com/tokenized-apple-stock-bitcoin-ethereum/
Isn't that too risky if the bitcoin drops then the stocks will not be hedged against and fall ?
Was this run in es from 2019 also due to bitcoin ?
Bitcoin fluctuates in value; what that means for tokenized purchases is not in the scope of I follow. It is a better question for an investment adviser or crypto expert.
DeleteNo, I don't think the ES rise had as much to do with bitcoin as it did more directly with FED policy, and the larger wave count. On the other hand, bitcoin speculation may have been enabled by the FED. What else to do with free money, but send computers endlessly trying to solve a meaningless algorithm.
Thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteIf this piece is correct, where the ransom hackers on the pipeline may have had their bank account cleaned out (there is some tracing possible with crypto), there could be a rush to the exit from crypto:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/colonial-pipeline-hackers-darkside-received-90-million-in-bitcoin.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail
XLP/XLV (mthly) A ratio to monitor [if interested] -
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Morning look at the hrly -
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👍 A/1 = C/3 = 4000 area SPX
DeleteCash [currently] showing island reversal. (This could change.)
ReplyDeleteThis is real interesting in here. We are still lean to the printer machine but wave theory suggest the psychology is about to negative on MMT.
ReplyDeleteResistance area 4139-45 on SPX (cash).
ReplyDeleteTrying to break above OR. If it fails, look for move to btm of OR (and possibly fill opening gap). (fwiw).
DeleteTJ’s triangle theory might be in play here
Delete15min cash - all systems go currently -
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Evening star on 15min. Watching for follow through (or not). Still above TLine and RSI above TL.
DeleteGood afternoon all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting screen. After five successive closes outside the upper intraday Bollinger Band (probability about 1%), and a hit on the R2 daily pivot level, it looks like a close is trying to form inside the upper band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/967fC5Wm/
If price closes back inside the band, it can reset the number of consecutive closes.
Hopefully, you are now generating this screen each-and-every day, and looking for where and how to place the fractals.
TJ
ES 30-min close inside the band; now resets the number of consecutive closes.
DeleteTJ
..and fyi .. that high was coincident with the 18-day SMA.
DeleteTJ
To understand placing the fractals, would it be best to read Bill Williams' material on fractals?
Delete@KellyO .. yes; that would help. Basically, a green 'up' fractal must have two lower highs on either side of it, and a red 'down' fractal must have two higher lows on either side of it. Add two required bars for any 'tied bar' up or down. Other than that, it is fairly straight-forward.
DeleteTJ
Oh OK. Thank you.
DeleteI have shown the basic fractal idea (called two-bar fractals) in the schematic to the right of the chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GNRFpznc/
TJ
..and because it is now 1 PM, and the 12:30 bar is closed, that means with two lower high candles on either side, the bar at the high is now a valid fractal, and has been marked with a green ^ up arrow.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/f38uSVpF/
TJ
15min update and RSI trend analysis -
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Final - RSI trend analysis - 3 choices [if interested]
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SPX 15min. On this move up from yesterday, the CRS of SPX vs DJI crossed above its mov avg and continues to rise (above its avg).
ReplyDeleteMacd has crossed (downward).
DeleteSPX 15min e.o.d. (with a little CRS thrown in) -
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A new post is started for the next day,
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