Monday, May 24, 2021

From the (W) Wave

Today made a higher high than Friday, and at least got to the 78.6% retrace level of the all-time-high, and a little more. That was hoped for in a triangle, so the proportions might turn out reasonable. Towards the end of the daily prices tailed off a bit. Here is as much detail as I can include on an ES 2-day chart from the (W) wave to the (Y) wave.


I have looked the degree labels over several times, and where they are, they make sense with no degree violations.

Now, of course, triangles can be tricky. All we have here is the suggestion of a potential triangle. Its waves would have to form correctly in every detail. This one certainly could get longer in time.

Keep an eye on the possibility, and have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

26 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update!

    SPY (15min) e.o.d.-

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7ER.png

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  2. Thanks for the update TJ- How you arrived at that circle iii(int A) is beyond me.
    just an observation.

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    Replies
    1. The structure is a contracting leading diagonal. The count is as per the original count. Nothing has changed, although once I considered everything to minute ((b)) following as all of A. But, there is no need for that. The original works. There are documented reports (Prechter, and me) of a third wave in a diagonal - while contracting in price - taking one additional zigzag - kind of like a true extension in an impulse. This skews only the time relationship a bit. Price, again, remains fine. I saw this happen once 'live' while counting the Eur/USD daily in Apr/May 2014. And, since I had seen it myself, and there was no other plausible explanation for the ending wave, I cite the case as 'rare', but, legal.

      TJ

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    2. Thanks TJ- I hate asking you, but it seems such an important & interesting discovery i.e LD in a 3rd wave. Could you share the link to your write up on it as you mentioned?
      Thanks in advance

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  3. ET, Thanks for the update. I will not be surprised if the defensive stock sectors lead the thrust out of that triangle.

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  4. An aside for the commodity followers here (if any) - Long term view into 2020

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7LY.png

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for all of your charts. I greatly appreciate you sharing your trading insights.

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  5. Here's something that hasn't happened yet, but may. I think you may find this of interest. Gold/BTC (wkly)

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7Mu.png

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  6. ET,
    I believe you counted out the roaring 20's as an expanding diagonal that I never saw anywhere else. One of the kids is studying the great depression and I wanted to show them the pattern before and after. Would you still have that in the debts of your computer?

    Thanks

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  7. DXY (hrly) - observations

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7Yc.png

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    Replies
    1. DXY is close enough to the prior low (>90%) that it might make a Flat correction.

      TJ

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  8. ES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rr9V2KX5/

    Looks like narrow range Bollinger Bands again.
    TJ

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  9. SPY (15min) 2hrs in -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c81Q.png

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    Replies
    1. Testing broken upward TL and bottom of OR.

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    2. Trading between today's lower boundary and yesterday's upper boundary of ORs.

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  10. ES 30-min "looks like" 5-down but can't be sure yet. Not at workstation.

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  11. SPX has decisively closed its open gap off the ATH. I think how we close today will give clues as to whether that is bullish or bearish for the other major indices...watching 4200...

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  12. Interesting to see if triangle in play. It does look now as if 4100 battle to be rejoined...

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  13. ES 15-min; I think this is the simplest, and it is possible.

    https://invst.ly/uxrph

    One can also 'squint' and see a diagonal, but since there is another alternative, we will count as the impulse.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. If impulse underway, I would expect the bears to take out 4100 following the expanded flat. It would be quite interesting if that scenario does play out in ES as it would mean a cash c wave truncation at the open.

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    2. ?? a truncation is 'possible' not certain. Not sure where you are getting that one from.

      TJ

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  14. DXY (hrly) update to morning post -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c86u.png

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    Replies
    1. Note: trading is still going. Had my countdown to bar completion clicked off. Oops.

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  15. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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