As noted in prior posts, there was a lot of 'whip and foam' in this market. It was entirely possible that a downward minute ((iv)) wave was playing out as a diagonal. It appears to be a diagonal of the expanding variety as shown in the ES 2-Hr chart, below.
Yesterday's downward wave was greater than a 1.618 wave, and is likely a third wave. Today is likely wave iv, and has already overlapped wave i, upward. It has also taken enough time to be longer in time than wave ii, but it could take more to meet the trend line if it wants, but does not have too. It has already satisfied the requirements, but can go further to make a larger zigzag. Then, there should be a fifth wave down that is longer in price and time than the third wave.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Thanks, ET!
ReplyDeleteYep!
DeleteA peek at the 30min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZd2.png
Now three inside down. Let's see if we get any follow through.
DeleteAfternoon all
ReplyDeleteYour chart corresponds with the open gap (4188ish)..Ill be watching. :) Thanks Joe and all,have great day
Welcome.
DeleteHello TJ,
ReplyDeleteYou mention 5 will be longer in price and time than 3, That means 5 will bottom sometime next week as per my calculation. Question is that is that a absolute rule or probability? Thanks in advance.
Hi Chitown - if i - v is the (c) wave of minute ((iv)) downward, then, yes, while the price length is a 'rule' for an expanding diagonal, the problem is that (c) waves are allowed to have a vth wave that 'fails'. In other words there 'could be' but does not have to be a truncation. In general, the 'time' parameter is the more flexible one, but the time parameter helps give the pattern the 'right look', which is also very important in wave structure. The short way of saying this follows:
DeleteProbability is very high of price and time for v longer than iii. But, one has to watch for a truncation in a (c) wave too. And if it occurs, not to be 'disappointed' by it. Keep the emotions out - just count the waves.
TJ
Update to this morning's post (30min) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZkG.png
I don’t see 5 waves off the bottom, so expecting a lower low per TJ’s count.
DeleteNice chart. I noticed daily bollanger bands are very tight. 4-20 low hasn't been broken.
DeleteEarly look at 30min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZxW.png
4hr, a bigger pic view -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZAa.png
ES has a new overnight low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
spx under 18ma, if it closes under it's been a while.
ReplyDeleteES 1-hr; because of the time scale involved, and a 62% retrace, so far, we should allow that wave iv could very well develop into the larger wave in a channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/upfw6
The best alternate for that is that is ended at the prior high, but it is the alternate because the form of an expanding diagonal, while barely acceptable, is 'strained' at that earlier location.
TJ
..since ((A)) and ((B)) are 'very similar' in time at 20-21 hourly bars, then - for better alternation in a corrective sequence - a wave ((C)) should be either shorter in time or longer in time.
DeleteThe bare 'minimum' ((C)) wave of iv has been accomplished in less time. But, of course, this could be a fourth internal wave of ((C)), or ((C)) could form an ending diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/upjyy
TJ
Current look at 30min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZMW.png
TNX (wkly) - handle time? (if interested) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZN6.png
Spot Gold (dly), update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZXZ.png
ES futures went 'over-the-high' on the jobs report. That potentially allows the alternate we covered of the double-zigzag minuet (b) wave, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/upzid
The structures continue to be very, very messy. Yes, it is 'potentially' possible for the (b) wave to form a triple zigzag; maybe even one that looks like a contracting diagonal. The count has to be taken step-by-step at this point.
TJ
..regarding the TZZ alternate, just remember that triple zigzags are 'supposed to be' a fairly rare event.
DeleteTJ
Why not triangle as the 4th wave instead?
Deletetriangle misses the channel, and projects much higher than the daily Bollinger Band.
DeleteTJ
thanks
Deletetriangle completion only requires one tick over the previous high
Deletethere is no requirement to hit any target
ET, Was the wave from 1982 - 2018 ever on the site.
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. It was in my E_T videos, and was before I got more rigorous about degree labeling.
DeleteThx
DeleteFED fires a 'shot across the bow', and with the new higher highs today, it's "What Me Worry?". Straight out of Mad Magazine.
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-says-asset-prices-may-201252345.html
TJ
I am finding it excruciatingly hard to pin this as a another Fed-fueled failed expanding flat that stops short of (c)i this is an expanding diagonal 3 weeks in the making. Our big "degree" date is coming up in two weeks...
ReplyDeleteA peek at the 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bZZY.png
So, based on the EWO, I think a count like this one could be a completion count into Tuesday. But, such a count should likely not go beyond Tuesday. I don't think the fourth wave is a triangle. It would have very odd proportions for the d wave of such a triangle, including wave cut-offs and broken triangle trend lines.
ReplyDeleteThe completion count would be for the Intermediate (Y) wave of the double-zigzag, so far, which 'could' still extend as a triple zigzag.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zhdEJIcz/
TJ
Also, based on the 'time' in the third wave, it is still possible for a longer (c) wave down of minute ((iv)). One news event does not necessarily change a wave count. I continue to be flexible, patient and calm.
DeleteTJ
That roughly equal and alternate count looks like this one ...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vyLh29LM/
TJ
Whats the rationale for the Tuesday deadline
Delete@kavi .. there is no 'deadline', only the common observation that Tuesday is 'often' a turn-around day.
DeleteTJ
Weekly Es-mini 500 has an outside week up bar and an embedded slow stoch. Interesting to see if the low of the outside week up bar is exceeded in the next week or two.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete