Saturday, July 20, 2019

In Perspective

The chart below shows why downward movement was expected at this time and is occurring in relative perspective to the overall double-zigzag, upward, in U.S. equities.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Targets

The 'minimum target is that this likely minuet c wave down of the minute (b) wave, down, overlaps the prior minute (a) wave, which would likely also overlap the prior April high. However, a more likely target is to travel down to the 2,900 level to contact the daily up-sloping trend line, and, perhaps even make a breach of it lower to generate some really bearish opinions before heading higher.

The alternation would be that within minor W, the minute waves formed a zigzag, and within minor Y, the minute waves formed a flat.

Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe

22 comments:

  1. Thanks again, Joe!
    Have an awesome weekend yourself.

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  2. Quite interesting that the 2900 round number nicely intersects the upward sloping trend-line. I do agree how price reacts there will be telling...

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  3. Hi TJ, in yesterday's post you reverted back to a larger diagonal down on the short term SPX CASH chart. I don't mean to trouble you but can you please explain why. Thanks

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    1. Triangles and diagonals can start the same: with three wave zigzags. Once the lower red fractal busted, it made any triangle much less probable, and any expanding diagonal much more probable.

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    2. Actually, what I meant was why you switched from the smaller expanding diagonal to the larger expanding diagonal?

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    3. I didn't. The 'smaller' diagonal as you are calling it, was just the 'minimum' target for an expanding diagonal.

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    4. ..ah .. I think I know what you mean now. The original, very first, leading diagonal did not reach it's target. But then, after 'failing' to reach it's target, a larger up wave occurred. So, it was logical a fourth wave became larger than a second wave. Unless it was a larger diagonal it would have created degree violations based on the size of its sub-waves.

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    5. Thank you. Does Mastering Elliott Wave by Neely discuss degree violations in detail?

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    6. no, it doesn't very much at all.

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    7. Does anyone else, apart from you, discuss degree violations in depth?

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    8. A lot of us have listened to the audio interview Glenn Neely did at the bottom of the page at this link.

      https://www.neowave.com/interviews/interview-201710.asp

      Although this is a learning interview, there are some reasons not to take it entirely as gospel. Hope it helps.

      TJ

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  4. Thank you for your patience this past week TJ!

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  5. 5 of the top on gold. Looks like we just completed a of b or 2

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    1. Basis 4hr, poss 5th ending diag (assuming 7/22 low holds)?

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    2. To take more time could be only a of b wave triangle

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  6. I am not sure if my count of c up of the (B) wave is complete yet. And I know I have 180 bars instead of the ideal 120 to 160 but I might give one of my counts a try. It is currently between the .618 and .786 of the (A) wave down and pushing on the upper trend line of the c wave up. TJ.... let me know what you think.

    https://imgur.com/a/WYj5v4l

    Tim

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    1. Also ignore the big B to the left of the chart as that would move as c completes. And my c complete is where the .786 line and upper trend line meet so it may not be over.

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    2. Your wave (iii) is full of overlaps and AO does not show a a tipical impulse. I think it is a more complex corrective wave.

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  7. ET, maybe this candle fulfiles the guideline of the first wave down being faster than 5 took to build so the leading diagonal didn`t truncate? If the last 5th wave up was very short maybe that candle is enough.

    https://i.imgur.com/H07uMHY.png

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    1. Is unreliable a timeframe so much low. Probably this was a part of a triangle and now drawing an ending diagonal.

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  8. A new post has been started for the next day.

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