Few listen. Few care. Today during the trading day I posted a link to this ES 30-minute chart, which I had drawn up with the specific intention, again, to see if anyone is listening with regard to degree labeling.
People that saw this chart should have been screaming that the supposed a wave of ((4)) was larger than the whole previous wave ((2)). That is a clear and unmistakable degree violation. One is saying a smaller degree wave is larger than it's larger degree counterpart. But, there are other degree violations too. Wave ((4)) - smaller degree wave than i, is longer in time than all of i! That is just as much as degree violation in time, as the former one was in price!
Perhaps one person was on the right trail when they asked if the up wave was over. But, they did not cite the potential reasons why. My point is that people 'should' have really beaten up that chart. What did I get? Silence.
Here is the correct count.
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| SP500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Correct Count |
Clearly you can see the diagonal downward did not overlap the prior wave i and is still probably in the fourth wave position. Clearly, you can see that it did not take out the fifth wave of iii in less time than that fifth wave took to build.
Clearly you can see the only wave that took out it's prior wave in less time, was the new location of i down.
So, what we most likely have is a truncation top. And, if the top truncated that means it also can not be a leading diagonal wave. Ponder on that one. "If the top truncated, it can not be a leading diagonal wave up to that point."
I'll let you sit with that one overnight.
TraderJoe
Thanks, as always, Joe! But I kind of hate your guts right now!
ReplyDeleteGlad you clarified this evening instead of waiting until tomorrow. Instead of questioning your count, I started questioning my understanding of following this blog for 6 months and was preparing to start a full review after dinner!
..then, participate, more! You are already, but keep it up.
DeleteYou're absolutely right ET! Can't be a leading diagonal, and because on ES futures a (b) wave up from 26/6 would be very close to if not bigger than all of ((A)) up from dec low so that is also unlikely? (one of the alternates you showed in the weekend video). So imho this leaves us only with this diagonal for bulls:
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bamnj
This diagonal have a nice over-throw instead of a truncation. So maybe this impulse we're seing from the recent top is the C wave of ((B))?
Yes, the "B" down still works.
DeleteThanks
DeleteHere's a more detailed chart, I think it counts best as 33333 diagonal:
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bamvu
Also very soon small cap has to decide were it wants to go?
https://invst.ly/bamwv
yes, Re: chart 2, the up channel is the right idea. Re: chart 1; plausible but not the only possibility.
DeleteWhy are you ignoring the massive 0-2 trendline violation? Almost all of wave iii is on the wrong side of the 0-2 trendline.
ReplyDeleteIf you mean on the way up, then just move ii as far to the right as you like so it still overlaps i. It still works. Another absolutely useless criticism from you. Your comments are not welcome here.
DeleteI disagree that it was "useless". It was a valid observation and one that you quickly chastise other posters for missing. Another "useless" observation on the above chart: where's the alternation between ii and iv?
DeleteRules are rules. Either you follow them or you don't. Even if you move the end of wave ii up to 3006, and make it a running ii, then wave iii still violates the 0-2 trendline. Also, a running wave ii would not result in a wave iii that is shorter in length than wave i, and shorter in time than the running wave ii, nor would it result in a truncated wave v. All three of things things are because of the inherent internal strength required to produce a running wave ii.
DeleteMoving wave ii up to 3,006 covers all the bases including the needed alternation.
Delete@Bob_J .. re:mblcta, he 'never' does any worthwhile work on here; he 'never' has shown a chart with a correct count; he has 'never' made the correct call of a turn. All he does is jump on to feed his ego and try to criticize a past count. It is literally nothing of value.
DeleteWhere can I read more about the 0-2 trend line?
Delete@Bob_J: Neely, Mastering Elliott Wave.
Delete@Elliott_Trader - Do you have any other recommendations on the best EW books to read?
DeleteWatching triangle in gold. I lean towards needing on more trip under 34 for e.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/WpDOGhj
10 cents off the 34
DeleteIm the unknown.
Deleteover 3
DeleteSPX:
ReplyDeleteI think it is possible to count the first i-ii (flat) as i-ii-((1))-((2)) which would make iii - ((3))) and iv - ((4)).
Given that current up move at 1030 eastern is now the largest up move, that would indicate completed :5 and change of degree unless morning low is iii and we are now in iv. This puts iii at between 2 and 2.628 of i.
But that count has 0-2TL issue so nevermind
DeleteThis morning cash SP500 has only three-waves up; with no 1.618 extension. In fact, c = 1.272 x a quite exactly. Then, after 'three-waves-up' a 90% retrace lower. You know the drill, "b wave of FLAT, or next impulse lower".
ReplyDelete..cash SP500 is now through the low.
Delete@ET - Any view the current market situation?
DeleteSee new post for next day.
DeleteAt the ATH the DOW was rejected at the trendline which joins the Feb. 19 and April 19 highs at the 27400 area.
ReplyDeleteIn today's cash session we've seen a lower low in SPX, DOW and YM but not in the ES. The YM low was an exact 1.5 extension of the previous up wave which opens the door to an expanded flat or a triangle. Either would fit as a wave iv. A "double top" flat would equate to 100 points higher, give or take. This would also require an upward C wave consisting of 5 waves which I'm not sure we are getting but IF it eventuated we are looking at 2993ish for SPX which is not totally out of context for a wave iv for that index. A triangle in the YM would also be satisfactory for a wave iv if we are looking for an eventual impulse down. With no lower low in the ES or NQ we really only have 3 waves down at present.
Well there's 2993ish and a double top in the DOW/YM but I only see 3 waves up with a 1.382 relationship.
DeleteStill not clear on the down count as the indices are very mixed. What is clear however is today's rally retraced 61% on the YM and 58% on the ES from the notional highs. I'm thinking a rare red Friday coming up.
Deletethink there is a little 4 and 5 left on gold.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDelete