Monday, July 1, 2019

Potential Impulse ES Only

Here is a repeat of the intraday chart we showed (in the comments section today by link) on the ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures in the half hour time frame.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 30 Minutes - Potential Impulse

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not have this structure, and, in fact, overlapped the waves on June the 28th, with about 140 candles on the chart for the 'wave of interest', the ES futures did grab a hold of the lower channel line and rescued the plausibility of an impulse count in a channel. It is not for certain, yet, though.

Wave iii of (iii) is on the maximum of the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and wave v of (iii) is on a divergence. Wave (iv) is a sharp to potentially alternate with the very sideways wave (ii). It is possible to chew up more time, if needed, that wave (iv) could become a triangle. Further, a wave iii likely has traveled beyond the upper channel boundary to show the location of maximum momentum.

Because of how deep this wave (iv) is already, I would not want to see prices trade below 2,955 or today's low before making a new high to call the structure an impulse. If an impulse is not properly formed, then we may just have another three-wave-structure to find a home for in the wave count. But we'll provide the impulse count a good shot at it.

Have a good start to your holiday-shortened week!
TraderJoe

31 comments:

  1. ndx has impulse count as well i believe

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  2. ES2983.5 was what I was hoping for to be target. There are few more levels above but I was thinking we wont see them for quite a while. So question now is whether dec lows will be exceeded if B wave completes here?

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  3. Quite fascinating to see all the confident calls of an upward three of three break-out coming in the larger context of negative momentum divergences and over-bought readings.

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    Replies
    1. Agree .. and proximity to the upper daily Bollinger Bands.

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    2. And Weekly Bollinger Bands as well.

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    3. I find the market here to be fascinating - not the opinions of "others"

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    4. If you give it a moment's reflection, it would be obvious to you that they are one abd the same.

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    5. hardly the case but we can disagree

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Is it possible that a triangle Z wave (currently potentially finishing a) is forming to end (B)?

    OR

    That a larger Y triangle is forming (currently potentially finishing c) to end (B)?

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  6. There is now ...let's call it .. a 'smaller' triangle from the high. Can also get a 'larger' one at 78%. Here is the smaller version.

    https://invst.ly/b5o2y

    ..and a potential thrust out of the triangle.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Since the (e) wave of the "smaller" triangle in futures was exceeded lower, and looking at cash, there can be the "larger" triangle in play, but not below ES 2,955.

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  7. Oil is doing well for the bears! Very nice breakdown.

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    Replies
    1. CL retrace, so far is 38.2%; monitor it closely.

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  8. For the time being, this is what the cash triangle's trend lines would look like. This would be the 'break up' triangle, which is most common. We can also envision a 'break down' triangle this high in the wave structure.

    https://invst.ly/b5q2v

    TJ

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  9. Upward break seems more likely as triangle entered in an uptrend...
    Triangles used to be penultimate waves but that appears to have changed lately!

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  10. Is there enough room for a corrective C up out of the triangle?

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  11. Ooops! Just noticed an upward break would lead to new highs so definitely not corrective..

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  12. Daily CL rejected at the upper bb and 100ma, slow stoch. turning down, returning to the 18ma: https://invst.ly/b5qzo

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  13. Here's an update on the potential cash triangle. Still very acceptable.

    https://invst.ly/b5r20

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..and cash can still form a larger triangle if it wants (futures too).

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    2. SP500 cash is now above the prior (b) wave. If the close is at 78.6% or so, then it is 'possible' to have a larger (b) wave. Otherwise, price can go over the top.

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    3. ..cash stopped at 78.6%, so far.

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    4. so we are not in 5th wave since open yesterday?

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    5. Futures exceeded 78.6% in the AH .. looks like the current triangle and not the larger one.

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    6. @marc .. likely the fourth wave needed to equalize 'in time' with the second wave. You, of course, are free to see it as you wish.

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  14. When you put 120 - 140 candles on the chart 'for the wave of interest', the triangle, then you see each significant triangle wave falls on an opposite side of the EMA-34.

    https://invst.ly/b5roy

    TJ

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  15. Measured target pointing to new highs...

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  16. A new post has been started for the next day.

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