Here is an automated Elliott Wave Video Report prepared for any idle hours you have over the weekend. To be respectful of your time and mine, the video is kept to about 7 minutes.
Great video! The (b) wave in the flat alternate on NQ 100 futures is very close to be bigger in time than ((a)), so maybe the bigger leading diagonal ((a)) that is mentioned first in the video is more likely? Thanks!
Looking at the DOW & S&P500 futures I'm not really seeing a diagonal. What does stand out is the 3 minor waves down to the recent low in the DOW futures and an even more non-descript low which formed on the S&P 500 futures. So I'm thinking A down, B up and now the "messy" low MAY be b of iv of C. In other words a triangle MAY be taking shape. If so, c of iv of C (i.e. wave c of the triangle) would target around 27343/3013.5 (cash prices). This assumes wave b of the triangle is complete at the recent lows (i.e.27295.33/3009.64 cash prices). IF it is a triangle we would need to go lower after the triangle (i.e. v of C) before we can go higher again. Consolidating here with a relatively minor pullback is not unreasonable given the recent gains. Potential triangles are common. Sometimes they work, but sometimes they don't.
The other "big picture" observation is drawing a trendline across the Jan. '18 & Sept. '18 tops. Using 2 different charting software I get 2 different levels as to where that trendlines currently sits. Those levels are 3022 & 3028. Today's high was 3017.80 which is close but not quite a "hit". That trendline SHOULD be stiff resistance. If this market is going higher then we should get at least some reaction at that trendline.
Interesting because I think Garret Patten from Elliott Wave Trader has that 3022 as a potential target as well, at least that is what I read in an older post of his.
I have noticed that when price does not reverse immediately from round number inflection points, sideways price action generally presages a move higher. A lot observers are convinced we will not see a market high until after the initial rate cut. While this has certainly been the pattern at the end of prior tightening cycles a few things are markedly different this time around, one being the number of arrows left in the FED quiver. I suspect we will see a "buy the rumor, sell the news scenario" unfold, although the panicky telegraphing of Powell hardly qualifies as "rumor"...
Billy, wave 3 is shorter in cash than wave 1. As I said earlier, the futures likely truncated at the lower high. The lower high does not show up in cash.
..and wave 1 in cash can also be counted to 'include' the original down waves in the futures. That makes it longer in time when 'all hours' are considered. Remember, 'time is time'.
..also I made 'no comment' that the diagonal was Leading. That, I believe, was Mark T. Only way to tell definitively if it is leading is if the low is exceeded lower. Only in the case of a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal do the odds 'slant' towards a leading diagonal, but even then not definitive (because can also be an impulse with lower and lower degree wave two's because they are shorter in price and time). So, please try to avoid putting words in my mouth. I'm counting as best I can.
Hope you had a good weekend. Any tips on how to distinguish a structure such as this between.. 1) leading diagonal (which would suggest either 1 of an impulse or and A of a corrective), versus.. 2) a corrective wxy or some thing (which would suggest this is an end of a corrective wave and upward trend resumes
Anyone who could would be rich beyond their wildest dreams. All I can say is that larger wave targets (i.e. nearing a Fibonacci target or cluster) sometimes helps. The 'exact' problem with diagonals is that they are made of multiple zigzags. If there weren't equivalent alternates in the market, then there would be no risk, and markets would cease to function.
..but.. the very 'reason' why diagonals are usually ascribed to a, c, and vth waves is that they are 'slow grinding waves', and very much less impulsive. So, if you are looking for a 'fast move from the top', then diagonals slow that progress down and are therefore 'often' part of just a corrective wave.
I don't 'know' if this will play out properly; but even on a 1-minute chart, I 'try' to let time and alternation play out properly, with calm, flexibility and patience.
Thanks again, Joe!
ReplyDeleteGreat video!
ReplyDeleteThe (b) wave in the flat alternate on NQ 100 futures is very close to be bigger in time than ((a)), so maybe the bigger leading diagonal ((a)) that is mentioned first in the video is more likely? Thanks!
Thanks Erik.
DeleteIf the diagonal invalidates to the upside maybe ((b)) finished 9/7 as a wxy, as you’ve mentioned an impulse from 9/7 can’t still extend
ReplyDelete*can
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe!
ReplyDeleteWe got spammers now?
ReplyDeleteThey show up from time to time....like a bad penny.
DeleteHourly technicals are still on a divergence, as below, and there has been a short term trend line break.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b9lrv
Also, in the futures, possibility of a truncated fifth, but the high must hold
and I would like to see fractals broken under the EMA-34.
TJ
RUT looks like 5 down off the highs...
DeletePossible Leading Diagonal on the SP500 cash 5 minute chart?
ReplyDeleteLooking at the DOW & S&P500 futures I'm not really seeing a diagonal. What does stand out is the 3 minor waves down to the recent low in the DOW futures and an even more non-descript low which formed on the S&P 500 futures. So I'm thinking A down, B up and now the "messy" low MAY be b of iv of C. In other words a triangle MAY be taking shape. If so, c of iv of C (i.e. wave c of the triangle) would target around 27343/3013.5 (cash prices). This assumes wave b of the triangle is complete at the recent lows (i.e.27295.33/3009.64 cash prices). IF it is a triangle we would need to go lower after the triangle (i.e. v of C) before we can go higher again. Consolidating here with a relatively minor pullback is not unreasonable given the recent gains. Potential triangles are common. Sometimes they work, but sometimes they don't.
DeleteGot it. Thanks. Good observations
DeleteThe other "big picture" observation is drawing a trendline across the Jan. '18 & Sept. '18 tops. Using 2 different charting software I get 2 different levels as to where that trendlines currently sits. Those levels are 3022 & 3028. Today's high was 3017.80 which is close but not quite a "hit". That trendline SHOULD be stiff resistance. If this market is going higher then we should get at least some reaction at that trendline.
DeleteInteresting because I think Garret Patten from Elliott Wave Trader has that 3022 as a potential target as well, at least that is what I read in an older post of his.
DeleteI have noticed that when price does not reverse immediately from round number inflection points, sideways price action generally presages a move higher. A lot observers are convinced we will not see a market high until after the initial rate cut. While this has certainly been the pattern at the end of prior tightening cycles a few things are markedly different this time around, one being the number of arrows left in the FED quiver. I suspect we will see a "buy the rumor, sell the news scenario" unfold, although the panicky telegraphing of Powell hardly qualifies as "rumor"...
ReplyDeleteBoy they sure can 'squeeze' can't they?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b9nu3
TJ
ET, so it doesn't matter in a leading contracting diagonal if wave 3 is longer in time than wave 1?
DeleteBilly, wave 3 is shorter in cash than wave 1. As I said earlier, the futures likely truncated at the lower high. The lower high does not show up in cash.
Delete..and wave 1 in cash can also be counted to 'include' the original down waves in the futures. That makes it longer in time when 'all hours' are considered. Remember, 'time is time'.
Delete..also I made 'no comment' that the diagonal was Leading. That, I believe, was Mark T. Only way to tell definitively if it is leading is if the low is exceeded lower. Only in the case of a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal do the odds 'slant' towards a leading diagonal, but even then not definitive (because can also be an impulse with lower and lower degree wave two's because they are shorter in price and time). So, please try to avoid putting words in my mouth. I'm counting as best I can.
DeleteThey are experts...! :)
DeleteNow five waves up to an A wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b9o5i
TJ
given you relied on ndx count in video, the count on ndx is counting upward, abc down is complete
Delete?? an actual count has nothing to do with me or what I relied on; I have no idea what you are trying to say now.
DeleteHope you had a good weekend. Any tips on how to distinguish a structure such as this between..
Delete1) leading diagonal (which would suggest either 1 of an impulse or and A of a corrective), versus..
2) a corrective wxy or some thing (which would suggest this is an end of a corrective wave and upward trend resumes
Thanks
Anyone who could would be rich beyond their wildest dreams. All I can say is that larger wave targets (i.e. nearing a Fibonacci target or cluster) sometimes helps. The 'exact' problem with diagonals is that they are made of multiple zigzags. If there weren't equivalent alternates in the market, then there would be no risk, and markets would cease to function.
Delete..but.. the very 'reason' why diagonals are usually ascribed to a, c, and vth waves is that they are 'slow grinding waves', and very much less impulsive. So, if you are looking for a 'fast move from the top', then diagonals slow that progress down and are therefore 'often' part of just a corrective wave.
DeleteNice real time charting...!
DeleteI had a possible nested 1,2 down...
..thx, Tachyon.
DeleteAnother truncation of an abc?
ReplyDeleteYM and ES both rejected "at the 50", at least at the first attempt.
ReplyDeleteI don't 'know' if this will play out properly; but even on a 1-minute chart, I 'try' to let time and alternation play out properly, with calm, flexibility and patience.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b9oz8
TJ
..the issue was to 'try' to let wave B/2 become as long in time as A/1.
Deleteand now C/3 is over A/1 .. just in time for the close, and 'more-or-less' on 'schedule'.
DeleteFancy that...! ;)
ReplyDelete