Still in Minuet (b)

Yesterday's post outlined a "five-down" count. We said that if new lows didn't result, the expanding diagonal could have been "ending" and not leading. Today made marginal new highs. The expanding diagonal was ending.

All that likely means is the minuet (b) wave upward is likely extending in time (mostly) and somewhat in price. Here is the updated chart.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Longer Minuet (b)

So, the 'invisible' WonderWave from the ECB presser was a flat for the x wave label shown above, and the five-down diagonal was the 'c' wave of that flat. (Remember in the overnight, prices went down, then up, then down big.)

The result is there is a new "three-touch" trend line which is to be respected from a wave counting perspective until it is broken lower. If and when it breaks lower, it will likely signal the onset of the minuet (c) wave of minute ((b)) wave lower.

The reason we have a high degree of confidence in this count is that all of those that were counting a diagonal to Minor 5 of Intermediate (5) at the mid-July high, and there were several, now have extra waves to deal with. The count above does not share that problem. That is very, very encouraging.

Here was my short term wave count over the last two days of observing the ES E-Mini S&P500 futures. 

ES E-Mini S&P Futures - 15 Minutes - Extension of (b)

At the end of the futures session (5 PM ET), there was about a six-point give-back. One internal trend line was broken, and the market may have established that it has taken out the previous fourth wave in less time than it took to form. But further, if a downward wave travels below 3,018 it would likely become the largest downward wave on the chart, and potentially signal a degree change.

Ask yourself if anyone can provide commentary with such specificity and so few words?

Have a great start to your evening and to your weekend.

TraderJoe