The chart below shows why downward movement was expected at this time and is occurring in relative perspective to the overall double-zigzag, upward, in U.S. equities.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Targets |
The 'minimum target is that this likely minuet c wave down of the minute (b) wave, down, overlaps the prior minute (a) wave, which would likely also overlap the prior April high. However, a more likely target is to travel down to the 2,900 level to contact the daily up-sloping trend line, and, perhaps even make a breach of it lower to generate some really bearish opinions before heading higher.
The alternation would be that within minor W, the minute waves formed a zigzag, and within minor Y, the minute waves formed a flat.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks again, Joe!
ReplyDeleteHave an awesome weekend yourself.
Quite interesting that the 2900 round number nicely intersects the upward sloping trend-line. I do agree how price reacts there will be telling...
ReplyDeleteHi TJ, in yesterday's post you reverted back to a larger diagonal down on the short term SPX CASH chart. I don't mean to trouble you but can you please explain why. Thanks
ReplyDeleteTriangles and diagonals can start the same: with three wave zigzags. Once the lower red fractal busted, it made any triangle much less probable, and any expanding diagonal much more probable.
DeleteActually, what I meant was why you switched from the smaller expanding diagonal to the larger expanding diagonal?
DeleteI didn't. The 'smaller' diagonal as you are calling it, was just the 'minimum' target for an expanding diagonal.
Delete..ah .. I think I know what you mean now. The original, very first, leading diagonal did not reach it's target. But then, after 'failing' to reach it's target, a larger up wave occurred. So, it was logical a fourth wave became larger than a second wave. Unless it was a larger diagonal it would have created degree violations based on the size of its sub-waves.
DeleteThank you. Does Mastering Elliott Wave by Neely discuss degree violations in detail?
Deleteno, it doesn't very much at all.
DeleteDoes anyone else, apart from you, discuss degree violations in depth?
DeleteA lot of us have listened to the audio interview Glenn Neely did at the bottom of the page at this link.
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/interviews/interview-201710.asp
Although this is a learning interview, there are some reasons not to take it entirely as gospel. Hope it helps.
TJ
Thank you for your patience this past week TJ!
ReplyDelete5 of the top on gold. Looks like we just completed a of b or 2
ReplyDeleteBasis 4hr, poss 5th ending diag (assuming 7/22 low holds)?
Deleteb looks done
DeleteTo take more time could be only a of b wave triangle
DeleteI am not sure if my count of c up of the (B) wave is complete yet. And I know I have 180 bars instead of the ideal 120 to 160 but I might give one of my counts a try. It is currently between the .618 and .786 of the (A) wave down and pushing on the upper trend line of the c wave up. TJ.... let me know what you think.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/WYj5v4l
Tim
Also ignore the big B to the left of the chart as that would move as c completes. And my c complete is where the .786 line and upper trend line meet so it may not be over.
DeleteYour wave (iii) is full of overlaps and AO does not show a a tipical impulse. I think it is a more complex corrective wave.
DeleteET, maybe this candle fulfiles the guideline of the first wave down being faster than 5 took to build so the leading diagonal didn`t truncate? If the last 5th wave up was very short maybe that candle is enough.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/H07uMHY.png
Is unreliable a timeframe so much low. Probably this was a part of a triangle and now drawing an ending diagonal.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete