I have been commenting recently how little cash and futures are having similar patterns lately. I have seen this before so it is no major surprise, but several days in a row really makes one scratch the head and give pause.
The futures trade around the clock - much like commodities do - and this morning, there was a (not) WonderWave from the ECB Press Conference on the left hand side of the chart.
 |
| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 5 min - Intraday |
You won't see any of this wave in the cash market. Cash opens with a gap down. The WonderWave was created when Mario Draghi 'promised' to do whatever is needed. The WonderWave disappeared when he provided virtually no details. Markets reversed hard, in their fastest turn in a while.
At the end of the day, I had some other chores to do and couldn't stay with the close. But, in looking over the intraday chart in the after-hours, I couldn't help but wonder if "five-down" was, in fact, made as an expanding diagonal.
Although the wave fits the price measurements with ((5)) greater than ((3)), ((3)) greater than ((1)), and ((4)) greater than ((2)) and overlapping wave ((1)), the interesting thing is it may also fit the same expanding time measurements.
But, even though the pattern is still apparently there, I would like to see more downside follow-through including taking out the b wave low that was noted yesterday. Otherwise, the pattern could be ending instead of leading.
Cash would not count like this yet.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Gold looks to have a contracting LD over the night with deep retrace and now above LD.
ReplyDeleteMissed the diagonal this morning. Few things from this week to print off for the F-UP file. LOL
DeleteSP500 cash ticked over it's top. 'Possible' fifth wave of c of (b).
ReplyDeleteDo you think the (a) wave down truncated on cash?
DeleteDOW futures made its high in the AH on 14 July. That high met the overhead trendline near 27400. Travelled in a narrow 333 point (1.2%) range since then. SPX/ES also dealing with its overhead trendline. Question is are we seeing consolidation before the market moves above those trendlines or is rejection here going to prove fatal?
ReplyDeleteCAC is hovering for 4 hours at the 50% retrace of yesterday's drop. Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX between the 38% and 50%. With the relentlessness of the poor economic news out of Europe, not sure what can push European equities to a higher high. Perhaps ECB purchases or is it simply yield (German 10 year bunds -0.37%).
ReplyDeleteBased on degree labeling, avoidance of overlap, and adherence to the 0 - 2 trend line, this is the most 'aggressive' count I see for this up wave. The alternate is A-B-C, but that would have to be proven by irreconcilable overlaps.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bf9b6
TJ
..since wave 2 = 38.2% x 1, then it 'likely' means wave 1 is the extended wave in the sequence. Right now, wave 3 = .786 x 1.
DeleteET I was looking at that possibility myself. However 2 is shorter in price than ii so I took it as a "no go".
ReplyDelete..but it is longer in time, and as I said yesterday, degrees can not 'time travel' backward. They only work, forward in time.
DeleteI guess you keep having to repeat yourself because you don't provide enough clarity on this topic. It's clearly evident from the repeated questioning you get relating to it.
DeleteClearly a new concept to me ...
DeleteAre you saying a second wave (2) price for degree is independent of the lower degree (ii) second wave of a directly preceding first wave (1) as far as price?
ET - whats the difference between forward and backward? i dont get it unless you are saying that we can only use determine a change in degree in real time???
DeleteIs this a change in your concept thus allowing for different long term counts than were previously rejected?
Think about it marc, once a third wave becomes longer in price and time than the second wave, it 'must' be of the same degree as one & two. There is no going back from that. There is no way to recover from it. There is no going backward in time to change the labels to something you 'wish' it was. It is what it is, and is cemented in the market. Please read tomorrow's commentary and see where those .i and .ii and .iii are. And apply that rule to the second chart in the next post. And, no, it is not a change in any way from how I have counted previously.
DeleteHere is my thinking on gold.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/8evBd7q
The bullish count would be this is 2 of contracting diagonal for 5 on the 4hr. I lean towards no because we have lost the 4 hr channel and the impulse of the top made a lower low at 1415.6.
DeleteAt 3,029 price has tapped 3 = 1 or C = A. IF it is the latter, then just a more complicated (b) wave upward.
ReplyDeletemore complicated b waves of various degree as a result
DeleteIf a of (b) counts best as an expanded diagonal isn’t it more likely that c will be an impuls?
ReplyDeleteHere is the count I have been following all along - Check both images
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/dcJhU6a
https://imgur.com/UoyVQLA
Thank God I didn't see any invisible waves.
Nice trendlines KS.
DeleteDAX futures finally made it to the exact 50% retrace of yesterday's decline before declining 30 points into the close. CAC futures peaked earlier and made it past the 50% but not the 62% and finished the week in a iii/c wave lower.
DeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDeleteInteresting price action in ES. I know the principle that allows second waves to retrace 100% of first waves but I have never actually seen an example. The 15 min chart appears to show just such an impulse with a possible second wave exactly matching the first wave high at 3029.38. The market makers no doubt noticed and anticipating new lows on Monday,felt comfortable offering less than intrinsic value for 300 strike calls expiring today! SPY sure does look like it traced out a CED to the top at the close. Fascinating!! :)
ReplyDelete