The NASDAQ 100 (NQ) futures made a marginal new higher high today. For this reason we need to show the clear invalidation level of the potential 5:3:5:3:5 Diagonal in the NQ futures. The invalidation would be because the fifth wave is not allowed to be longer than the third wave in price.
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| NASDAQ 100 - NQ Futures - Invalidation Level |
So, even with the divergence on the Elliott Wave Oscillator on a four-hour chart, beyond this level (about 8,045 - given the accuracy level of this particular tool) a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal would invalidate, and a different count must be in play for this index. Because each of the waves is shorter in time and in price, it could be that an impulse would explode upward in a third wave, but that seems to run directly into the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Not impossible, but the presence of the upper band raises a caution.
Kindly remember, different indexes can do different things at times. Just look at the Russell for an example. It's still time to remain patient, calm and flexible until there is more information.
Have a good start to your evening and your week.
TraderJoe
Thanks Joe!
ReplyDeleteET please take a look at this count?
ReplyDeleteFrom June 3 - 5 waves up to June 10 is (A)
Running flat to June 26 is (B)
Then contracting ending diagonal:
a to July 3
b to July 9
c to July 10 or 11
d to afternoon July 11
(C) = .618 (A) was just missed on SPX, beat it by about 40 pts on Nasdaq - count seems to work on both
Brackets used only for visual effect.
On cash indices
DeleteWith this count, I believe the top would have to be by 10:15am Tuesday at the latest (if not done today) for e to be shorter in time than c, or 5 vs 3, whatever the nomenclature.
DeleteMorgan Stanley bearish
ReplyDeleteJP Morgan bullish.
The red (down) hourly fractal is below the hourly EMA-34. The green (up) fractal is pending the close of this hourly bar. Technicals continue to show divergence.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b9-9d
TJ
With the close of the 11 AM (ET) candle, there is now also a valid green (up) candle at 3,022 as the requirement is to have two 'lower high' candles on 'both' sides of the fractal candle. That has now occurred.
DeleteStill in the process of learning the miniscule detail of wave development.
ReplyDeleteA bird's eye view of the hourly chart sure looks to me like classic sideways consolidation ahead of another break highe. Trying to find a supportive miniscule count but not having much success....
...and here we go.
ReplyDeleteAMZN should be in a 3 down, indices soon to follow.
With the breaking of the down (red) hourly fractal below 3012.50, then the market has started a downward count of 'some' type. Could be a-b-c; could be 1,2,3; could be more complex. Next question is whether a 1.618 extension is made. Market is already past a 1.272 extension, and the truncation at the top in the futures should not be counted as part of this wave.
ReplyDeleteMarket now hits 1.618 extension at 3,005, and hourly MACD is now below the zero line, but the signal line is not quite yet.
DeleteHourly chart below includes additional valid hourly, red (down) fractals.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ba0rv
TJ
Lol! No wonder I could not find a legitimate upward count that was valid!
ReplyDeleteI would consider, under the circumstances a CLOSE below the round number cross-road as probative!
DJIA upward looks like ZZ, ES looks like a flat. Is that possible?
ReplyDeleteOops! B wave of potential flat NOT at 90%...
ReplyDeleteHaha! They are throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at the decline!
ReplyDeleteA new low would be exquisite! :)
ReplyDeleteDaily CL possibly finding rejection at the 18ma and 100ma and slow stoch. attempting to turn down at the 50 line. https://invst.ly/ba2a6
ReplyDeleteES new low of day. Very possibly v of 3 or v of C.
ReplyDeleteDarn .. that was the new Micro ES that made the new low; not the regular ES or SP500 cash. Now there is a another new problem to deal with.
DeleteYep! Looks like once more into the breach...!
ReplyDeleteFwiw, cfd contract had new low as well.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteOn a 30 minute Dow cash chart this action looks like a 4th wave, basis MACD look.
One more wave up to complete a wave five ED perhaps?
ReplyDeleteBradley turn date next Tuesday 23. Looks like a few more days of grind.....
ReplyDeletewhere did you get this info ?
Deletei dont see a single bradley turn date in july
https://bradleysiderograph.com/2019-bradley-turn-dates/
Deletephil I think you are correct I checked both the middle and long term sideographs and there is nothing listed for July. I originally got the info from Dr. Robert McHughs newsletter and I will alert him that info is not correct according to Bradley's own data. Thanks!
Delete3002 SPX close on only the 3rd day above 3000. It won't take much to leave an island tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAgreed. The cash dumps are merely issuing in a a lethargic decline and the attempts to defend the 3000 inflection seem so far to be a slow-motion failure.
ReplyDeleteI frankly would not be surprised to see them execute a desperate gap back above as well as a possible gap down from that level.
We do have a clear break of the lower boundary of the bearish rising wedge...possibly a move back up to tag underside?
Speaking of gaps, the cash session is sporting one on the i min chart from 2996.62 that managed to only reach 2997.94 before being sold...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAn impulsive move below 2882.08 would suggest to me that the CBs have thrown in the towel... :)
ReplyDelete