First, relative to the wave count, if there is to be a third wave down, it should likely start in the overnight tonight, or no later than noon tomorrow. So, you might like to monitor that.
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| SPY - 15 Minutes - Possible Start of Minuet (c) |
It was very interesting coming into today that the overnight gap was not a higher one. That initially seems to reinforce the above short term count of the minuet (b) wave up. There appeared to be three waves up after the opening drop - right to the the 62% retrace level on SP500 cash - and so it is possible this represents a second wave up
Prices did fall off from that level into the end of the session, and if they continue we may get a third wave down. If so, it should be a 1.618 length wave, or more. If a lower low occurs but it is not a 1.618 wave, a diagonal 'might' be suspected based on the position of the futures.
The best alternate I can think of at the moment is that today represented another 'x' wave down (shown in red). There is no rule-based reason why the minuet (b) wave could not become a triple zigzag, but triples are pretty rare, and it would be pretty poor form, since the minuet ((a)) wave diagonal represents a triple zigzag in the ES. So, a further triple zigzag for a (b) wave would be very poor alternation. Therefore, the alternate is only that, and would require prices to go over the high first.
This week of course is a full slate of earnings, another torrent of economic reports, and the report-out of the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. But beyond that, Wednesday is the end of the month which often (not always) brings some sloppiness from "window-dressing" activities, and then Thursday is the "first of the month" with potential inflows from company bonuses, pension fund and 401k reinvestments, dividend reinvestment plans, etc. Because this is a mid-week change in the month - and not the end of the quarter - the impact might be a little more subdued but is still to be watched for.
Have a good start to your evening and to your week,
TraderJoe
Most Ellioticians I follow are aligned with an imminent correction. I would be very cautious here with a bearish bias. Most I follow think the fed decision is going to be the catalyst and that the current move has the cut baked in. Don't be so sure.
ReplyDeleteI do see my own weakness into Aug 16th... Maybe China will be the catalyst. Spy 303.5 seems likely this week though
Be vigilant
Well said Aw328!
DeleteTriple bottom in the DOW/YM 7/18, 7/25 & 7/30 all arriving in cash hours. Looks like a consolidation pattern between 27050 & 27400 since 14 July. No guarantees in this game but that's what it looks like and that means higher before lower. But any higher move in the DOW will be marginal in my opinion. Wall Street hanging in well so far today with the DAX down 2.3% currently and still near its LOD.
ReplyDeleteAnother bullish count might be that X=a of flat, so we move X to the right with Y yet to come
ReplyDeleteGold may have a expanding diagonal forming on the 5 min.
ReplyDeleteDid not form properly. From 1467 the best i can tell is a nice impulse down and now the ending part of a flat.
DeleteIF there is upward overlap in cash and futures, then this pattern is suggested. And, yes, by the nature of Elliott Wave, it could be w-x-y down to this point with equal probability.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bgf1z
TJ
..and therefore a wave ((4)) 'could' become longer in price and time than a wave ((2)).
Delete..as best I can tell, 'a' wave up from 9:30 - 10 AM, and 'b' wave as a 'flat' wave down until noon, and/or continuing. 'b' wave might find a way to waste more time.
Delete..now at 78.6% in both directions and a cross back down over the A wave, a "running triangle" is 'possible', but so is something lower.
Deletehere is the 'potential' triangle. If the ((c)) wave breaks, then lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bgg0f
TJ
first 'larger' pattern lower is a 'slightly' larger, perhaps more proportional, running triangle. But this patterns is getting to have some very 'exacting' standards from here. In no case allowed below ((A)).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bgg8o
Next larger pattern lower might utilize the three-wave sequences of a triangle to make some kine of diagonal, lower to a 78.6% retrace of the full up wave to a.
TJ
Now upward overlap in the futures.
DeleteBoth a and b of 3 of potential expanded diagonal is bigger than all of 1 I think
ReplyDelete..depends on exactly where the 'a' wave ends; it looks like the 'b' is a flat wave. So, it's a close call.
DeleteGetting overlap of prior 'a' wave up, and possibly a wedge. Could be a diagonal or a larger flat for 'b'.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bghl7
TJ
wedge is breaking down
Delete..if there's low volume, and they decide to whip it, can also be a larger triangle if certain parameters are met.
Delete..for larger running triangle should not trade below 10 am ET low, or else just a larger flat.
DeleteTJ, I was trying to apply Eight-Fold path to monthly chart since 2009 (around 160 bars) and the max EWO seems to have happened in early 2009 and not late 2018 (wave 3 of 3). Is there something I am doing wrong?
ReplyDelete*120 bars
Delete1) ..a monthly chart of 'what'?
Delete2) .. how do you know you actually have the EWO indicator?
3) ... there are 124 bars; no need for guessing.
Sorry for being rather unclear, I meant S&P500. I am using EWO(close,5,35) on TradingView.
DeleteThe Elliott Wave Oscillator on both Trading View and Investing.com is also called the Awesome Oscillator on those platforms (see link below.)
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zJDl5P8a/
It is pre-programmed and there is no need to enter parameters. I don't know where you are getting the EWO for your function. You might try to start by reversing the parameters (close,34,5). Do not let me see 35 as a parameter as that is not correct.
I hope this helps, but I want to be clear : it's not my yob!
TJ
Thanks a lot TJ, it all makes sense now!
Delete