The upward wave in the ES hourly futures, shown below, now takes more time (at 90 bars) regardless of where the downward a/i wave (max 64 bars) started. Therefore, the upward wave should be corrective to the downward wave.
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| ES E-Mini S&P Futures - Hourly - Upward Correction Takes More Bars |
Overall, the count would be a/i, down, and b/ii, up, with a c/iii down to follow, where b/ii, up, is a flat wave. Cash S&P did not make the lower low at .b, like the futures did, but it darn well did make the 90% level lower. Hence, a flat correction is allowed by the rules.
We do not know that the upward correction is finished. But, there is the clear potential makings of a very rare ending expanding diagonal. If the goal of the upward .c wave was to get above the upward .a wave, to avoid a truncation, it did not do it by futures settlement time. It could easily do so in the after-hours, however. None-the-less, we thought it helpful to readers to show what this pattern is like in near real time.
If this is an overall minute ((b)) wave down, then it is no wonder than the count is so explosive and choppy all at the same time. B waves are among the hardest to count and one never knows if they will be simple zigzags or triangles or some other "three". So, we do the best we can.
IF (again, IF) the diagonal winds up to be an ending expanding diagonal, then the start of it must be exceeded lower in less time than the diagonal took to build.
Have a great start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Watching zz in gold. Would not be surprised if done here with truncated c with deep b.
ReplyDeleteOn diagonal watch for c.
DeleteNQ (NASDAQ 100) futures, now at 90% of the former high. Same drill as always, "B wave of a flat or next impulse possible".
ReplyDeleteRUT looks like it has begun next rally phase after prolonged basing period, thus I'd say impulse for NAZ is more likely (unless, of course, Russell 2 reverses and breaks recent low, then bear counts it is.)
ReplyDeleteFrom an Elliott perspective, the Russell 2000 index is rallying following an over-lapping corrective pattern lasting over three weeks now, and attempting to breakout of that sideways churn period. If over-lapping waves indicate a correction period, and that period is over, then we are in the early phases of an impulse move. If so, any move back near all-time highs would leave the big three indexes - Dow Industials, S&P500, and NASDAQ at all-time highs. Thus in an impulse move, which was my point, in regards to what pattern the S&P500 is here: corrective in a bear, or still in some of impulse move in a bull.
DeleteIsn't it plenty of degree violations in this chart?! Both between 2 and (B) up in time and 1 and (A) down in price?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bee06
yes, but go back to the 20th Jul post to see where I have the ((a)) wave ending. I think you are putting it in the wrong place. Why? I am not sure why you are.
DeleteYes wrong place your ((a)) keeps degree intact, hope I didn’t confuse anyone!
DeleteMaybe this is a clue that the july 20th count is correct, because if the DOW cash makes a new high and we move B to the right the smaller degree B will be bigger in time than (A) up, this degree work doesn't work in s&P500 so only a clue maybe different count on DOW
Deletehttps://invst.ly/beewc
Hmm it actually does work on s&p500 also?
DeleteHere is this morning's up wave since the low. Now at 78%, which is triangle or truncation territory.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/beelj
TJ
ES goes over the prior high.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/befhu
TJ
NQ has marginal new high; ES has reached 90%, RTY (Russell futures) at 78%.
ReplyDeleteTarget of 3020 appears a magnet...
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteWow...this was really interesting!!!
ReplyDeleteGreetings! Very helpful advice within this post! It is the little changes which will make the greatest changes. Thanks for sharing!
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