On the second day of Fed Chair Powell's testimony, this time before the Senate Banking Committee, there was no change in the overall count.
 |
| SP500 Cash Index - 2 Hr - In C Wave Up |
Today, we spent most of the time trying to count this next impulse up, and, in particular, counting the long "triangle-shaped" fourth wave as below.
 |
| SP500 Cash Index - 15-min - Finishing Fourth Wave |
It was surmised that because the ((A)) wave of the fourth wave was so deep, and rather quick that a triangle might form. It was also noted where the 0 - ii trend line (from 2 / b) is on this chart, and that the trend line broke. This means we are not likely in a continuing third wave, and are just waiting for the fourth wave to wrap up. The ((C)) wave of a potential triangle made another 78.6% retrace on the ((B)) wave - which was shown live during the day, and then a potential ((D)) wave took off upward back towards the highs.
This wave absolutely does not have to form a triangle. If the market is unusually strong, then the fourth wave could have ended as a truncated flat at the ((C)) wave low. Still, the wave is taking so much time, that the ((E)) wave of a triangle should be allowed to form before a fifth wave higher. In other words the triangle has a 'high likelihood' of forming properly. Now, it's just a question of if it does.
The pundits are already out on T.V. claiming Dow 33,000. That gets my sentiment antenna up, making me say I am "neutral only - and counting towards a top". I will have more to say about that on the weekend.
For now, have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks ET. 👍
ReplyDeleteSo far sentiment goes, there is something most peculiar about the FED embarking on an easing cycle with less than three hundred basis points to deal with the first negative quarter GDP print being in any way bullish. I have a sneaking suspicion that Powell is setting giddy bulls up for a sucker punch...even if he does not, they WILL be sucker punched by something else...!
ReplyDeleteThanks. Your hard work has substantially increased my awareness of EW and what's actually going on. Not nearly as noisy as it once was. Cheers
ReplyDeleteJoe -
ReplyDeleteA question to clarify:
I assume the truncated flat at ((C)) is due to failing to reach ((A)). Would not the ((C)) leg itself need to be 5 waves? It appears to be 3 waves, itself a completed flat. Thanks for taking time!
If a truncated flat ends in three waves the whole sequence would be w-x-y, not a-b-c. Remember, "a" of the triangle is three-waves too.
DeleteI was seeing it as w-x-y (3-3-3) if the low was in. I just didnt understand the reference above that if the market was strong, then 4th could have ended as truncated flat at ((C)) low. But, it has indeed moved up, so w-x-y it is.
DeleteThanks
Just for my own edification, why would this count below be wrong or not considered? Ignore last two labels as it is still unfolding.
ReplyDeleteES chart
It would appear as if end of B is closer than originally thought if ED pans out?
Because 'by rule' the second wave must be a zigzag - not a flat. It 'can not' have the higher b wave if you're counting three-wave sequences. Again, that a hard rule'. Nothing I can do about it.
DeleteTough to see any convergence on 1-3 and 2-4 trendlines as well imho...
DeletePure opinion and conjecture - the big top is Friday or Monday - SPX 3015 +/-, small chance of approaching 3050, small chance of making it to Tuesday. AMZN is the canary in coal mine - it should make a new high first, Y:W = .618 at about 2078 - it probably won't quite make it but will exceed 2050.
ReplyDeleteIn SPX, following the count, if this is currently 5, it is limited to 3018 - near the trend line of tops. This 5 waves up = .618 the last 5 waves up at about 3013.
That may be about it - figure out the exact count later.
Not limited to 3018, but 5=3 at 3018. AMZN is counting cleaner - should just be a 5th wave left from late June.
DeleteThe truncated flat (written about above) appears to be the best location for the fourth wave of the impulse. There is already a new high in the ES futures.
ReplyDeleteThe truncated flat has 'also' been reinterpreted as a truncated zigzag. The rationale is that there is a "sharp" "A" wave down, a long "B" wave up, and the "C" wave down is a very compressed expanding diagonal. Either way provides either an acceptable fourth wave of C, in the main count, or in ((2)) wave of a C diagonal in the pending count.
DeleteThe note at 11:10 am applies to "futures only"; not cash.
DeleteSP500 cash index has overlap of July 10 high.
ReplyDeleteHere's a look at the cash chart SP500 15-min. There is already ((5)) = ((1)), the question is if a downtrend has begun. There could easily be another up wave. I will show hourly futures shortly.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b8ujj
TJ
..and cash S&P gets the higher wave.
DeleteHere are the hourly futures relative to two technical indicators. This count is an ALTERNATE count. It is not needed. It is plausible if there is a Friday lurch up towards the close.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b8ulm
The main count would be that a "C" wave of larger diagonal ended at today's high.
TJ
Possible contracting ED in ES...?
ReplyDeleteSee comment 11:00 AM.
DeleteGot it...!
DeleteTop of wave one ZZ would be June 21...
ReplyDeleteHard to argue with cash as being 'five waves up'. Can still extend, make a small triangle, etc.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b8v8u
TJ
Great support for possible count from numerous momentum indicators.
ReplyDeleteReversal should be quite conclusive...
ES futures are a few ticks from going over the top.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b8wsu
TJ
So ideally a wave 2 pull back for a iii of 3 of C of Y setup next week targeting 3100-3150 to finish the large degree wave B?
Delete@TJ @ 2:30; I know people have a tendency to "jump ahead" with the count on here, but first we must see a wave come to an end. We have not seen that just yet. The futures absolutely missed a critical overlap this morning. So they can still be counted as an impulse. A diagonal is an alternate. It all depends on if a diagonal holds form or not.
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteI finally got a chance to watch the videos you had posted last week. They were amazing, can you please post more videos, even despite the weird voce over? :)
Glad you liked the content.
DeleteES has just nudged over the top … just counting as the rules permit.
ReplyDeleteI want to emphasize that an impulse has not yet busted in either the futures or cash. Both are still on the table in SP500 and ES.
Deleteimpulse from where ?
Delete2,963.50 ES Jul 9th
Delete3013 close. Looking for a cascade down. AMZN may have started a downward count from Thursday with 50% retrace Friday - if so, then it's leading and straight down. AMZN could be a final 1-2 up sequence from Friday low - if so, the relative flatness of the indices will be the tell with a couple more days levitation. Should be counting down unmistakably by Wednesday morning latest. Anything significantly more bullish than this - well then cancel that, something else is happening.
ReplyDeleteThe moves from June low to now, from Dec low to April high, from Dec low to now - there is a similarity to them.
Looking forward to the update.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
ReplyDeletehi Joe
he does not stop making the highest US indices
look at this site and tell me what you think about the weekly account
thank you so much
Please see the next post.
DeleteThere is a new post for the weekend.
ReplyDelete