Without the overlap noted in the futures, the DOW cash index may best be counted as "five waves up" to the minute ((a)) wave, of the Y wave of Intermediate (B), as follows.
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| DJIA Cash Index - Hourly - Minute ((a)), Up? |
Reviewing the Elliott Wave Oscillator, this is the case where the first wave is the "extended wave in the sequence", and makes the highest high for the EWO. This wave is designated as x (i). Then, each subsequent shorter wave makes a lower high on the EWO.
I watched that Dow triangle form on a different time scale (much as the S&P500's triangle) and it fits in this location just fine as a fourth wave triangle. In this case, the triangle's a wave is likely a flat. One leg of a triangle is allowed to be some corrective structure other than a zigzag, and this is thought to be the case for length purposes in minuet wave (iii).
If the ES futures break below 2,952 as noted previously, then this is probably the best way to count the S&P500 cash index, as well. As noted previously, there is a discrepancy in contract months on the ES futures as to whether there is overlap or not. There is not such overlap in the Dow (YM) futures.
Have a good start to your evening, and to your week.
TraderJoe
this is the count i recommended buy you didnt like as it was happenning. I specifically stated i thought it would be 5 waves up with extended wave 1. My question is when from measurement standpoint did/could this count become valid or preferred? Was it an error to have it as primary count when wave 4 was forming? There would not be a 1.618x for 3rd or fifth wave, which is what you have told me to look for when counting 5 up, because 1 was extended. The structure was quite predictive if its right giving terminal target for wave 5 (sorter than 3).
ReplyDeleteunderstood. how do we deal with extended first waves as they unfold in real time ? does it matter?
DeleteThe count does not even work on the cash S&P500 index without breaking the 0 - 2 trend line guideline. It doesn't work because (iii) becomes the shortest wave without the lowest lows in (ii). And, in order to include the lowest low in the S&P (not the Dow), you have to break that trend line.
DeleteWave (i) would be the 1.618 wave. Measure it.
Also consider the possibility that the Dow and the S&P may be out-of-sync temporarily. Welcome to corrective waves.
I'm not sure I know what you mean by 'deal with'. Once there is a degree change, it should be respected.
DeleteJoe -
ReplyDeletePerhaps I've been under the wrong understanding of the form of an extended 1st wave 5 wave move. If this is not correct, can you clarify? Thanks.
https://imgur.com/DN8fXSZ
I have no idea where the ideal came from, but it generally fits everything in the picture. The wedge is across 3 - 5 in this case.
DeleteES finally went through yesterday's low on the futures. The means the typical minimum expectation of a flat or zigzag has been met, but can go further lower if it wants (i.e. even as in the ((b)) wave option).
ReplyDeleteET - based on your count from the weekend, where it is currently 2 of ((c)) - is this permissible time wise?:
ReplyDeleteCounting a flat from the top for wave 2 -- C of the flat starts 3pm last Friday. The low near noon yesterday was the end of 3, 4 was a flat to the close, and now 5 down into early today, with a 45% +/- retrace of 1 of ((c))?
5th of 3 of c and 4 of c would take a long time.
At about 2965 would be 38% cash retrace.
DeleteIf it is the weekend count, which seems to look good - the fact that wave 1 subdivided, as well as its large size relative to all of ((a)) - does this suggest it will be the long wave of the sequence of give any clues regarding the waves to follow?
Try to look for the upward break of a downward parallel channel. Second waves and b waves can be w-x-y, too.
DeleteThe downside series gaps we are seeing in SPX seem unusual in a corrective pattern. It looks like CBs have really opened the spigot of late, which could account for the current wave complexity...
ReplyDeleteTrying to figure out how to incorporate other T.A. signals into informing possible EW likely counts. Price action appears to be flagging action in a short-term down-trend with subsequnet time/displacement dimensions on flagging candles becoming increasingly weaker...
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ReplyDeleteBTW, really appreciate the detailed info provided for possible wave counts. Some analysts make all kinds of dogmatic statements with nary a glance at providing info on wave degrees! :)
DeleteThere are seven 1 hour candles completed in each leg of the flagging sections of the short term down-trend. If the pattern obtains, the next hour of price action should result in another down-side gap.
ReplyDeleteSince this morning, with close to 120 candles on the chart (113), the DOW has put together a very nice contracting diagonal, and break of the diagonal trend line lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b7rm9
The question now is why and where will it lead. To be a leading diagonal, it may not break the low.
TJ
New low beneath 2973.13 gives five down off recent highs. Three wave up followed by a strong third down perhaps?
ReplyDeleteWas expecting another gap down but no cigar...! :)
ReplyDeleteDOW is now up over the diagonal making it a Leading Diagonal.
ReplyDeleteHere's the updated chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/b7ru-
TJ
Upward move fell just shy of 100% the length of the diagonal as far as today's session.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/b7rym
TJ
if an anc can have ld for a we can have abc. both ndx and ndx futures have expanding diagonals with wave 4 up abc c wave in progress for alternate count
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletemeant ld for a wave of abc
Delete