Tuesday, July 30, 2019

FED Next

Yesterday it was offered that if a third wave down was to start it would likely happen in the overnight or before noon. It did. Then, there were three waves up, which included an overlap.

SPY - 15 Minutes - Lower Low and Overlap

Because there are several patterns that can resolve themselves, including the possibility of an internal triangle (shown in blue), I am neutral until after the FED results. There tends to be a bit of volatility on FED days, and it would be best to see which pattern that volatility best fits with.

There is no reason lower lows couldn't be made, and if I look back to the low on 25 Jul there is also no reason that an even larger triangle could be a play, and that could even result in new highs. I have no particular vested interest in which occurs. So, caution, patience and flexibility are the continual by-words at the moment.

Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe

32 comments:

  1. Maybe we got a truncation at the 30/7 10.pm candle. That would facilitate the futures count alot lol

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  2. Gold looks really corrective off the 1424 bottom. Thinking is a Y wave in a complex flat. I tried getting a diagonal in but the 3 is longer than 1.

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  3. In cash, the triangle 'b' wave has some potential, but the ((E)) wave, down, must still overlap the 'a' wave, up. Chart below.

    https://invst.ly/bgwgq

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Triangle nullified https://imgur.com/NFsAYHT

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    2. ..still 'can be' a barrier triangle, as price did not close above the barrier. Can also be part of a diagonal, or the end of the wave. Still quite a few options.

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  4. Triangle from 25/7 also looks decent now? Maybe even finished ”e”

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  5. The 'a' was has been re-crossed lower, making a triangle or diagonal, or even the end of a fourth wave possible. Chart to follow.

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    Replies
    1. Chart: triangle possible, diagonal possible, end of wave (iv) possible.

      https://invst.ly/bgy2m

      TJ

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  6. FED ..One-quarter point cut, and stopping balance sheet roll-off two months earlier than previously announced.

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  7. Fed still cutting after 10 year equity bull market and present ATHs … bizarro!

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    Replies
    1. Must be "global risks" such the Euro. But the Euro is at 27 month lows and behaving like US just raised rates … lol. 27050 was mentioned on the DOW yesterday as the bottom of the last 2 weeks range. Important number, decisive crack of 27050 and anything's possible. Currently 4th test in progress.

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    2. DOW now below the round number 27000 … bear progress.

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  8. Lower low than yesterday: likely the high was that wave (iv)

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    Replies
    1. ES needs to get below 2,994.25 to confirm an expanding diagonal downward.

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    2. There is 2,993; likely a downward diagonal has been confirmed.

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    3. ...likely a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal in cash SP500, or SPY.

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  9. EXPANDING DIAGONAL IN CASH CONFIRMED - https://imgur.com/2Pxo5j0

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  10. Nevermind headfake lol. Don't catch a falling knife

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  11. We have now covered the bare 'minimum' retrace I outlined in prior posts.

    https://invst.ly/bgyuh

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Can 'also' overlap 2,900 and meet the weekly up trend line, as well.

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  12. Looks like 'five-waves-up', and now three waves down to a minimum 38.2%, can go further lower if it wants to become more complex.

    https://invst.ly/bgzig

    TJ

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  13. YM now thru the 62% retrace of the bounce. ES at the 62%. More importantly it looks like 5 down from the bounce high on both indices.

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  14. A new post has been started for the next day.

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