Same exact count as yesterday in the S&P500 cash index chart below. This morning we noted the marginal lower low and said a flat wave could form. It looks and measures, so far, like it has.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Five Down and Flat Wave |
Because wave a, upward, is longer in price than wave ii or wave iv, it can not be a sub-wave of a larger down wave. Therefore, it must be the first wave of a new upward flat wave. That is what we mean by "turning a degree". However, b, which is a downward wave, is shorter than wave v which preserves degree labeling.
So far, in the up wave, there are only three waves up, showing. A common expectation of an expanded flat correction - which is the most common among corrections - is c = 2.62 x a. We already know that the wave has made it back to the territory of the prior fourth wave which is 'often', not always, a stopping point for a larger B wave in a (larger) zigzag. This is one of the reasons to try to get the count from the top correct and not include the truncation.
We're not sure we are correct - only that, so far, measurements, degree labeling, and adherence to the 0 - 2 guideline seem to indicate so. If wave c wishes to, in order to waste more time, it may become more of an ending diagonal wave to use more time without taking up much more price.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
thanks
ReplyDeleteimpulse seems a bit forced - no 1.618 extension and ewo has no 4th wave pullback. Am I missing something?
definitely .. a 1.618+ extension in ES
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bbdou
TJ
Would the upward C of the possible corrective flat be invalidated if its displacement exceeds that of the wave five down? Or must both time and distance exceed the wave down?
ReplyDeleteThat seems to to be the case in ES. Thanks!
they are same degree
DeleteI actually measured and so far, still shorter..."Never Mind!"... :)
ReplyDeleteThanks ET. YM & ES appear to have completed 5 waves up as per the C wave scenario off their respective LODs. Although SPX can be counted as "5 down" from its truncated high I wish I could say I see the same possibility for YM and NQ … but I cannot. Therefore the bears may only get a larger A-B-C down in this instance. There is also a chance they will not even get that if this move off the LODs is the start of yet another move to fresh ATHs. Just calling 'em as I see 'em. 😎
ReplyDelete@ET - can you please show how you counted the 5 wave impulse in the last blue (v) of your impulse. I have attached a link BELOW of an image of the 5th wave assuming your count - can you please explain how the last impulse is in fact 5 sub waves (or how you count it) because I don't see it https://imgur.com/DWjQKpz
ReplyDeleteFive waves in a bullish falling wedge on ES futures; ((5)) < ((3)).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bbekt
TJ
I agree that it's a bullish falling on wedge on ES,but I'm sure you noticed that I'm referring to CASH (that is what I uploaded) and the chart that you originally uploaded above for today's post. Do you see an impulse there?
DeleteHi TJ, you counted for me the intraday short term count of your 5th wave of the impulse on ES. Can you show me how your count of your 5th wave on the CASH? It is cash that you have shown in original post yesterday and that is what originally inquired about.
DeleteET, I wonder if on cash, the actual high could be 0, the truncation could be 2, v could be 3, a could be 4, b could be 5?
ReplyDeleteThe truncation move is the longest counter move in time, and a is the biggest counter move in price -- they become 2 / 4, with extended 3rd.
You would have a degree violation where 1 of iii is longer than i.
DeleteThanks. Now the very deep question - are these rules or guidelines and what is the degree of rigidity on them?
Delete-applies to all the questions, and there are many today - EWO profiles, minutiae in counts and so on.
Good question. There are guidelines but degree violation is a rule.
DeleteDegree violation is also rampant and out of control. It's an "easy" way to find a suitable count or a count that matches the bias of the Elliottician.
DeleteMaybe you can answer this, or ET, but I have wondered how that rule could have possibly held up during the 1987 crash or comparable moves? How could the middle waves of very small degree been shorter in price than higher degree waves away from the middle?
DeleteJoeM you will really have to show a chart to illustrate what you mean. In fact I don't understand you question at all. A little bit more delineation is required but a chart illustration is 10 times better.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deleteflash crash:
Deletehttps://www.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/dow-flashcrash-1-min-png.176436/
how would this count without degree violations? I haven't been here that long, I don't fully understand the concept.
But it would seem that small degree waves at the end are larger than higher degree waves earlier on.
DeleteYes I think you do have a misconception about degree violations. There is no issue regarding degree violations with that drop. All it appears to show is wave v was the extended (longest) wave which is perfectly okay. The most basic way to describe a degree violation is when a wave of smaller degree is longer than a wave of larger degree. In your suggestion earlier you made wave iii the extended wave, which is fine, but that made the internal wave 1 of iii longer than all of wave i. That can't happen as 1 of iii is a smaller degree wave when compared to wave i.
DeleteJoeM regarding your last comment about "small degree waves at the end", there are no small degree waves at the end. I would suggest wave v starts just above 10600 and comprises around 80% of the decline all by itself. The smaller degree waves are determined by their length (and also the amount of time they consume). So a small degree wave on that chart (and all charts) is simply the small changes in price (and time). The bigger the changes the bigger the degree. Hang in there brother. It'll gell bit by bit.
DeleteThanks for putting the time in on this. I fully understand what you said about my proposed count.
DeleteOn the flash crash chart, the 5th of the move down from 2:20pm would surely cover more price than larger degree waves preceding it, no?
LOL, okay you can ignore my 10:32 ;)
DeleteOkay just to be clear, there is no larger degree waves than wave v. Waves i, iii and v are all of the SAME degree. Wave iii cannot be the shortest. So wave v can be longest as long as wave iii is still longer than wave i.
DeleteJoeM its hard to know "what came earlier". Upon reflection the "flash crash" was a correction, not an impulse, and what we see on the chart may be the whole correction. In any event we are likely not even discussing waves i, iii and v. Maybe something like W-X-Y. Degree rules still apply. Nevertheless wave Y can still be the longest and represent the "fishing line" in this instance and that would be fine too.
DeleteII 58% bull, bull:bear = 3.45
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at the smaller waves - in wave 5, you can clearly see 9 small subdivisions. One of the sub waves of wave v will be larger than wave i.
ReplyDeleteAnd just to be clear Billy, I do appreciate you suffering a fool!
Was meant to reply to thread, and you may have to magnify chart to see clearly.
DeleteThe final 5 red bars cover more price than higher degree waves, no? Or you are saying those 5 minutes only -- are the high degree wave v for a day long decline?
DeleteClarity - my assumption is that v is from roughly 2:20pm to 2:50pm. Maybe you are saying v is just the final 5 minutes to roughly 2:50pm.
DeleteWe are getting off the track with attempting to interpret wave v. The decline was not an impulse. It was a correction. See my comment above at 11.17pm.
DeleteThere is now overlap on wave iii, upward.
ReplyDeleteHere are the valid fractals in futures, thus far.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bb-gw
TJ
What is the significance of the overlap of wave iii.
ReplyDeleteJohn
..allows a flat, triangle, or diagonal.
Delete..or, obviously, a full-on 'downward' count, but I thought I'd better add that explicitly.
DeleteThank you
DeleteI have been following your site. You and the contributors are actually providing an understanding of Elliott Wave I have never seen anywhere else. It is great!!!
John .. I'm glad it is helping!
DeleteOverlap in gold, up move probably only has an ed left as possibility. Looks like a impulse and running flat off the top.
ReplyDeleteBBR .. please log in.
DeleteSorry about that.
DeleteES has just taken out the red (down) fractal back. Triangle is much, much less likely. Flat, diagonal or 'done' are only good possibilities. Can count five up in SP500 cash, but can also allow for better alternation.
ReplyDeleteFor a 'legal' downward diagonal in cash, must exceed 2,990.30, lower.
DeleteHere is that potential completion count, and diagonal downward. Still 2,990.30 is needed lower, but that length supports a 'degree change' from the upward wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bc0il
TJ
This is helpful TJ as it confirms my thought process. However, I'm forced to press you AGAIN on my question last night regarding the internal structure of your wave V down (of your impulse) in CASH (not ES). Can you please show the internal 5 WAVE structure on that. I don't see it.
DeleteCould we please move on from this topic after this? Within v, 3 = 1.618 x 1
Delete(sorry wrong link the first time)
https://invst.ly/bc1m7
TJ
Thank you. I genuinely wanted to know how you counted it. I guess it's OK, in this scenario that you have just shown, that (wave 4 circle) is smaller than its subwave 4?
DeleteI 'genuinely' counted it in futures. Yes. You can't use degrees 'in reverse'. Can we get off this topic yet?
DeleteSlightly larger diagonal required due to degree labeling. This down wave can also be a w-x-y-x-z 'B' wave too! For example, if we close at the high of the day, then we would have had a, up, the five waves up, this diagonal or other 'b' down IF a diagonal does not complete successfully. Then, a big IF, a new high of day would be (i) of a larger ending diagonal for this larger C wave of the expanded flat. This would be the case where, 'it takes more time'.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bc2mn
As a diagonal, cash must travel below 2,987.12. so that a fifth wave is longer in price than the third wave.
TJ
ES new low of day (LOD)
DeleteWhere or not this pattern completes, I am showing your the clear and equivalent alternate in red.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bc382
There is nothing I can do about this level of indeterminacy in a count. That is because diagonals are 'always' composed of three zigzags. So, they are equivalent until they are not.
TJ
Hey TJ. Probably a stupid question but I seek clarification only - Why did you switch from your smaller diagonal down to the larger diagonal? I understand you mentioned "degree labeling" but can you expanded on that little. Thanks
DeleteS&P500 2.986.33, 'minimum' diagonal target met!
ReplyDeleteMinimal diagonal target met, and at the 62% retrace level of the up move.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bc3jd
TJ
..and at 19 candles, the fifth wave ((5)) or Z wave is longer in 'time' than the third wave ((3)) or Y wave.
Delete..also consider that the entire down move is 'longer in time' .. in the cash market than the entire up move ..again in cash. What about in futures?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bc3me
TJ
62% retrace wave broken lower. 'Some' B's stop at 78.6%
DeleteI have the five up to today's high as an impulse wave i, with the pullback since an A-B-C partial retrace that should complete ii. I could be wrong, though hard to imagine big money and their algos won't push stocks to new highs going into the FED meeting to deliver max pain to the bears and reluctant bulls.
ReplyDelete..just fyi .. FED meeting result is not until 7/31. Please show me how you counted A-B-C, down.
DeleteMomentum indicators appear to tell a somewhat contrary tale...
Delete"Please show me how you counted A-B-C, down"
DeleteClosing price on SPX cash past two days under 15 min intervals:
3004-2992 wave A
2992-2999 wave B
2999-2976.6 close wave C (5 waves.)
With clear five waves up prior to that, thus i and ii complete, or near complete. New lows under 2974 negates this count, and assumes correction not over, or something more bearish. Break to new highs confirms the count as laid out above. IMHO
@kevin, first it's not 'legal' because using closing prices only avoids the issue of overlap. I 'only' do that when I am 'sure' there are no overlaps by checking it out prior. Second, an A-B-C down was just invalidated in the after-hours futures by the futures making a new daily low.
DeleteI did the closing price thing to make it easier to describe the A-B-C turn points. Let's review on Monday whether the futures price movement nixes my i and ii count, as I'm not a fan of mixing apples and oranges, and I trade off the cash indexes.
Delete@Kevin.. just so you know, I'm not very keen on people when they don't admit to being incorrect. It makes it very, very hard to deal with them.
DeleteLooks like we're in w3 down, just below base channel.
ReplyDelete?? huh .. show me the count, if you please
DeleteNow at ((5)) = 1.618 x ((3))
ReplyDeleteDon't hear this wrong. Futures must exceed 2,991.75 to 'turn a degree', that is begin an upward retrace, or more. Don't hear I'm saying they can't; only that such is the requirement. Futures are currently at 2,988 as this is written.
Delete..move lower extending .. ES banging into 18-day SMA
ReplyDeleteQuite a long downward wave, and relatively poor close for the bulls, with the ES on the SMA-18.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bc4pz
While "it's not over 'till it's over", the triple zz count is relegated to a much less likely alternate below the 78% Fibo retracement level.
ES futures did break the lows in the after-hours making an "outside range day down", and confirming the prior impulse count down in the ES.
ReplyDeletejoe thanks nice work
ReplyDeleteif ibhave a chance can you posy a count of todays decline on ndx futures? its got me stumped and im having issue with 0_2 trendline in 2 spots.
https://invst.ly/bcfa6
Deletemarc:
DeleteCan't see where Friday's decline was addressed on the chart. Am I missing something?
Sorry. I mis-read. Maybe later. Not at my computer.
DeleteSo, looking at all the waves since the high and trying to put them in degree context, they 'look like' three-wave moves. Three wave moves with a lower low still imply some type of diagonal from the top. If there is a 62% upward retrace beginning Monday, then perhaps an overall contracting diagonal is being made. Friday's down move would be a-b-c of (3). The problem in the NQ 100 is that the retrace to Thursday was much greater than 78%, but not 90%.
DeletePerhaps that is the sign that a contracting diagonal is in progress. Can't say for sure.
A new post has been started for the weekend.
ReplyDelete