From the flat for the three-wave minute ((a)) wave in the lower left, you can see that this wave has been traveling upwards in the 'half-channel' provided by the parallel shown. You can see that the count already has a problem with overlap at the red line across (w) labeled with "Already Overlapped".
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| ES Futures - 2 HR - Half Channel Count |
On Friday we discussed that the most recent down wave, currently labeled as the second (x) in the series is longer in nominal length than the whole of the prior (x) wave. We said on Friday that could mean a "turn of degree" was at hand. We also said on Friday that one way to rectify that potential degree violation is with a triangle. I do not know if a triangle will form, but it should be watched for. All it needs to do in Sunday's overnight is for an e wave to travel back down over the (y) wave.
Don't like this count? Well, there is another internal problem I ran into with the time parameter. If you look at the absolute number of bars in (y), you find that it is greater than the number in (w). That means that (y) and (w) 'must' be of the same degree or (y) must be of a larger degree. Further, that means there 'must' be a sub-division within (y) that I have showed as black a, b. I have showed one location for a that is less than the number of bars in (w), but you could also move it down one peak, and b could be another flat within (y).
Again, I don't know if a triangle will form, but if a triangle does form, it also has the potential to be the triangle just before that last wave up. But, let me be clear, a triangle does not have to form. It is possible that the net distance traveled in a flat wave to the current (x) location resolves the degree issue, as the net distance traveled is less than the point drop in the whole of the first (x).
Again, the Elliott Wave Oscillator continues declining and does not look like an impulse signature on this time scale.
Something to chew on over the weekend. Enjoy it. This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not seen it, you may wish to read the first one, also.
TraderJoe
I like the triangle idea.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
Because OBV, the A/D line, and price movement above overhead resistance on Friday suggest more upward movement. An initial "fake-out" e wave would be a classic misdirection manouvre by Mr. Market ahead of the final wave higher.
Most interesting that 200 day SMA slightly above the roughly 3K shelf. Next fib relationship above this battle-ground (78.6) at about 314...
ReplyDeleteDream on...!
DeleteI've made alot of $$ trading using EWT. It's a nifty tool to have along with more classic TA tools. If you don't like it, go away! There's nothing for you here.
ReplyDelete0.786R for ES is at ~3115
ReplyDeleteI had it a bit higher but close enough. The INITIAL wave down will leave to doubt that we have topped...
DeleteGood morning all..here is the potential triangle on ES hourly futures. Cash can use a lower cross-over to make a better triangle. ES 'can' be counted as complete or can make a longer (e) wave of the triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bwz3k4mO/
(Quotes are 15-min delayed on TradingView).
TJ
Yep! Another move down to sharply reverse just short of the A/C trend-line would be marvelous...
Deleteso 3020 would be a logical next target in this triangle?
ReplyDeletethat would be logical if cash wants to play along...
DeleteA new post is started for the next day. From here forward, comments and questions are moderated. They have to be approved before posting. Sorry, this creates extra work for me and you. But, the previous situation was getting untenable.
ReplyDeleteTJ