Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Five Down - Maybe Incomplete

Whether in futures or cash, it is 'possible' to count five-waves-down to a minuet first wave (i) of the minute ((c)) wave of a Minor B wave. The chart style below has not changed.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minuet (i)

The cash S&P market undercut is May 4th low. As of this writing - at the futures settlement - the ES futures have not undercut their May 3rd overnight low, but they could. So, the minuet wave (i) could still be incomplete, but it does not have to be.

The overnight market needs to be monitored for any new lows or upward overlaps. It is too early to provide more detail than this, except to say that in one way, since cash did undercut its low, then it is technically possible to consider that the flat wave to Minor B as completed. But that would make the time in wave minute ((c)) about the same time as in minute ((a)), and very often the odd legs of a correction show more alternation than that.

So, in the currently preferred count, the 2900 - 2907 level or lower would hold as resistance for a second wave, minuet (ii), in the upward direction once minuet (i) is confirmed to have concluded. Then a minuet wave (iii) might begin, lower. This would also provide more price-length lower to correct the Minor A wave.

Have a good start to your evening.


  1. Joe what is your best guesstimate on how high minute II could shoot?

    1. TJ alludes to 2900-2907 as being likely resistance. I'm seeing 62% fib at 2,884 and 76% fib at 2,907 so those seem like sensible targets.

  2. ES now below the May 3/4 overnight low. Minor B wave 'could' be done here.

  3. Good morning a new post is started for the next day.