Last night I had provided some pretty exacting measurements for a potential minute ((b)) wave upward. They played out as written. So, now we have a minute ((b)) wave, as below, which is greater than a 90% retrace on its minute ((a)) wave.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minute ((b)) |
The futures - in the overnight session - made the needed level of the 90% retrace and then fell off before the cash market open to make a lower low below the low of the fourth wave, iv, of (c), as per yesterday's chart. Once that was accomplished, then the futures began rallying back to the 2,937 level by 13:30 ET. This allowed the S&P 500 hourly cash market to also make a 90% wave back up towards its high. That chart was shown HERE.
By 15:00 ET, a double-top was formed to within a tick. And the question is whether or not that double-top will hold in the overnight. If it does, then it is possible we might start the minute ((c)) wave, downward, of Minor B.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Once the Minor B pullback completes, are you expecting a five wave advance for Minor C wave? Is it possible for Minor C wave to advance as three waves?
ReplyDeleteSince when has a C wave been anything other than five waves, either as 5-3-5 or 3-3-5 (in the case of a flat)?
DeleteEvery night you show a different chart to fit your count. How about staying with same chart and just say whether you were wrong or right?
ReplyDeletehey lay off his analysis is great and usually very precise considering market volatility. Take a hike
DeleteAmen, no one has a magical crystal ball, have to go with the price action each day. 2965 and 3K still possible.
ReplyDeleteAgee...we should be here to help each other...being negative helps no one..just sayin
ReplyDeleteSuccessful defence of 2900 brings 3000 into play per a long-standing pattern.
ReplyDeleteSideways consolidation generally presages a move higher when entered in an uptrend. EW The problem for analysts these days is that liquidity injections can and does overcome technical and fundamental market realities, at least in the short term...
agree, the longer we hold up the better of going up to 3K. Oil not hurting any either. Oil could drag folks to $32
DeleteI'm still believe the financials have the clearest pattern, and suggest another 7% or so rally to go, which should have a significant effect on the broader index. Looking at hourly chart last 10 days, I have 5 waves down, and a three step rally, and three step pullback just completing. If that bounce and selloff is an A and B wave, then C wave rally on deck next, targeting $23+. If XLF breaks down below $21 prior, then count is wrong, and third wave meltdown already underway. Overall pattern does seem bearish to me, though still C wave rally to come. Then watch out below.
ReplyDeleteES new lower low since the cash open.
ReplyDeleteAt the moment I only count three-wave sequences. Therefore, I'm on "overlap watch". The second set of three-waves down, is just barely shorter than the first set of three-waves down. If overlap occurs, a contracting diagonal, lower, becomes a 'potential'. If the downward waves become longer than the first set of downward waves, we'll deal with it at that time.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qs1ft
TJ
..downward wave is now longer. Requires re-evaluation. Missed overlap by 'a-tick'!
DeleteSince the wave shown as wave ((5)) just snuck in a lower low, also by a tick, it is possible to count the 'grind lower' as a five-wave diagonal in the following manner and still adhere to degree labeling requirements.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qs25q
TJ
..there's a lower low .. diagonal appears to be 'leading'.
Delete..there's a weird way to count five, non-overlapping waves too.
Delete..this is the five non-overlapping count, as well.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qs2jb
TJ
Price just broke the overnight low from 24:00 11 May.
DeleteES Hourly - price just overlapped the 5 May high, in the downward direction. How happy will bulls be about that?
DeleteWe had tagged it earlier on the 11th I believe (my data shows exact tag). Fwiw.
Delete@GW .. correct, as usual.
Deletejust broke 2900
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - IFF price gets below hourly ES 2880.50 that would definitively 'rule-out' a contracting diagonal from the 3 May low.
ReplyDelete..there is 2,879 any contracting upward diagonal from the 3 May low is 'ruled out' b/c it's fourth wave would be longer in price than it's second wave which would break a 'rule'.
Delete..also the third wave higher of such a diagonal, was 'ticks longer' than the first wave - which also breaks a 'rule'. I mention it because numerous YouTube and blog posters were saying 'contracting diagonal' upward.
DeleteOr this is ii and not iv for the ED.
DeleteReminder in about three-minutes is the Interactive Brokers full-margin requirement at 15:50 ET. We have seen prices move 10 - 30 points in those couple of minutes. Movement can be up, down, or both.
ReplyDeleteThere was 75 - 70 - 75- 70 in less than two minutes. About 15 points net travel.
DeleteWorking on the minutiae...
ReplyDeleteFrom 2939 - 2913 is 1
To 2928 is 2
Now at 4:20pm, late in the third of 3
This is where it get comfusing the wave 1 the first drop this morning was 3 wave move. That's why we were looking at diangonala this morninf
ReplyDeletehad to go down from the 5-min to 1-min time frame to find the impulse, js.
DeleteThanks for all your hard work Joe. Today was particularly interesting as we watched the diagonal develop into a motive wave down. I think the party might be over. How can I join the forum to make comments?
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