It is possible we completed, the minute ((b)) wave, up today. But, for all the critics out there in wave-counting land, it is not for certain. ES daily price did hit and trade over the upper daily Bollinger Band today, and there was some profit-taking into the close.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((b)) Complete? |
But, the major wrinkle in the picture is that the daily slow stochastic is now embedded at the settlement. We need to watch it's progress in the next day or two. Here is the four-hour chart.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - ((b)) in a Wedge? |
There are some who will try to see this wave as an impulse. That's fine, it's a good alternate and is shown in red as alt: a of (y) of ((b)). Yet, the wave didn't act much like an impulse as certain sub-waves, like the (x) wave took, so long to complete relative to the b wave at the bottom. Also, wedge shaped impulses typically form when the first wave is the extended wave, not when the c of (w) wave is the extended wave.
So, that is the rationale. Better confirmation will come if and when the ((a)) to (x) trend line breaks to the down side, and the prior wave (b) high is overlapped in the downward direction.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
One cannot help but chuckle at the maelstrom of perplexity and befuddlement market watchers would be thrown into if price did indeed witness a sharp c of b down, only to be thereafter followed by an even shaper higher degree C to the upside!
ReplyDeleteAs mischievous a potential count as I have seen in quite some time...lol!
3K should hold in ES if that is where we're headed methinks...
Thanks for the heads-up....
3000 Gap filled - what's the next target?
ReplyDeleteTry looking at remaining open over-head gaps in other indices
Deleteto glean possible upside targets. One remains unfilled in SPX...
Which one in the spx?
DeleteNot a criticism, just an observation.
ReplyDeleteIF (y) of ((b)) did complete,
for (y), c < a x .618
for (w,x,y), (y) < (w) x .618
Some waves of meager stature.
If b of (y) could turn into a flat, perhaps we could get another shot up for a larger c of (y).
DeleteIn his daily video Epstein said the ESM20 Daily 500 futures were not yet embedded. ToS shows the index did embed yesterday. Unsure of the reason for the discrepancy.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. The ES futures 15-min have just overlapped the last two peaks in the downward direction.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qy1vd
This 'might' be some kind of ending diagonal.
TJ
ES now below a 62% retrace from the 2,984 double-bottom low. Put "or Top" at ES 3,035 high. Might have finished minute ((b)) as a triple zigzag; this last set of three waves up is the third zz. That is if it can not swing around to make an E-D.
DeleteIF a (b) wave was the double-bottom 2,984 low, then any upward diagonal would have had to have started from there. The ES has retraced >78.6% of the prior wave, and is 'longer in price' than that potential wave (b). Therefore, any trade below 2,983.50 - with a lower low - rules out any chance of an upward diagonal. Caution, patience and flexibility needed here.
DeleteNow at 2,982 with five-waves-down; both reasons to treat any retrace with suspicion.
Deleteso this rules out the upward diagonal right?
DeleteThank you TJ for re-posting the multi-month chart and updating it. I was wishing for it yesterday and looks like you heard my wish!
ReplyDeleteI really like your frequent posts with educational tidbits and honesty. Continue!
TJ - because minute ((b)) retraced 'over the top' of minor A, am I right in thinking that minute ((c)) can complete the flat minor B without going below minute ((a))? On the daily chart you have the placeholder down near 2,500, but the wave could feasibly (perhaps more probably) complete at a much higher price level.
ReplyDeleteThis looks alot more probable - we are not staying below 3000
DeleteThe battle for the 3K shelf is ongoing. In protracted battles over S/R areas the bulls do tend to ultimately prevail.....
DeleteTachyon your sample for that 'tend to' statement is likely taken from a period of history where the bulls were generally prevailing. I think we'll go back significantly below 3k, but 2,500 is a stretch for the minute ((c)).
DeleteNow possible to see 'five-waves-up' from the low ..cash 5-min shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qy6pk
TJ
C wave or 1...?
ReplyDeleteI would expect 3K to hold if new uptrend underway.....
ReplyDeletedo we have enough volume behind this big move to 3020?
ReplyDeleteNow, the up move can 'also' be counted as a non-overlapping double-zigzag. 1) There is no clear 1.618 wave, 2) there is a triangle in the center, and 3) the EWO doesn't seem to show 'either' a second or a fourth wave, on this time scale.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qy7r2
TJ
..cash nicked over the top, so it must be the extended fifth wave count.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qy7uc
Ugly stuff..
TJ
we've broken a series of resistance levels - if this is a c wave it's going to go pretty high
Delete3070 maybe? https://invst.ly/qy7yg
DeleteIm thinking closer to 3100 - there is too much power in this uptrend
ReplyDeleteYep! The re-capture of 3K argued for a move higher. If ES does not surrender it I suspect they will have successfully negated "Sell in May..." They are predictable...
ReplyDeleteFwiw, the "sell in May" actually lasts til November. There's still time, lol.
Deletelol - sell when we're bk to 3400
Delete