Friday, May 15, 2020

Looking for the End to Minuet (ii)

Nothing has changed with the four-hourly chart of the ES futures. Yesterday, we called the end of minuet (i) within a half-hourly bar, and we are trying to count minuet wave (ii), up. Here is that same four-hourly chart of the futures.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minuet (ii)

As it currently stands, minuet (ii) is a little over a 50% retracement on minuet (i).

Summary of what we did today relative to this count:

  1. We saw the futures had some higher highs in the after hours.
  2. When the cash market opened, we looked at a cash chart to see if there was any count that was possibly compatible between the cash and the futures.
  3. We saw that, given the three-wave-up structures yesterday, an X wave or a triangle might fit the bill. We published that cash chart in the comments. 
  4. We published the hourly futures chart in the comments and below.
  5. The hourly futures shows a much cleaner potential triangle. We stated it would not be confirmed however until prices exceeded the high. 

ES Futures - 1 Hr - Triangle X

In the futures, the triangle can be clearly discerned with an ((E)) wave that overlaps the w wave downward, as must occur in a running triangle. We said that the triangle might help burn some time, since, so far, the correction is very short in time relative to the down wave.

Further, in after-the-close studies we can see that the "time" of this up wave exceeds the time of sub-minuet wave ii's 25 hours by several hours. This tends to confirm it is the higher degree wave minuet (ii), in progress.

The wave does not need to go higher. It certainly can go higher. The lower edge of the upward Elliott parallel trend channel should be watched for any breaches to the down side.

Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe

49 comments:

  1. We had a failure today in the Dow cash. Eleven waves up,big break to the downside Sunday night. Everything finished today,time and waves ran out. Good work TJ

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  2. TJ-
    You mention that the wave need not go higher. Wouldnt ((B)) need to be exceeded to validate the triangle? Also, as ((B)) is a new high for the move up (a sign of strength), wouldnt this suggest a continued move up?
    Perhaps Im misunderstanding which "wave" you're referring to?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. @GW .. yes, it 'should' go a bit higher to validate the triangle. And, it could 'realistically' move to Y = W with Y measured from the ((E)) wave of the triangle. But, cash already went over the high. So, this might just be a Sunday night gap up, followed by a grind or a reversal. That is the expectation unless there is some unusual intervening announcement or problem.

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  3. https://i.imgur.com/mRW20jY.jpg

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    Replies
    1. Interesting chart. Thanks! Probably like to see "e" move up a bit to get off the a-c TL.

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  4. In the Sunday night after-hours, the futures have now exceeded the minute ((b)) wave high. This confirms a triangle did occur.

    https://invst.ly/qu60h

    Currently we have y = 0.786 x w. The y wave can go a bit further.

    TJ

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  5. Still hoping for wave ii? As I wrote 7 waves which is not an impulse.

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    Replies
    1. Seven waves isn't anything. Ever heard of sub waves? I think you're on the wrong site.

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    2. Not saying it applies here, but 7 can certainly equal 3.

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    3. Seven can also equal five (as in this case, with a large ((3)) of iii.

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    4. Ok I will stick to this https://invst.ly/qugik
      and you can continue to believe that a zig-zag is a third wave and we have ii now.

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    5. RustyP-
      I believe that example would be viewed as nine, not seven.

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    6. Impulse lower for B is history open your eyes.
      I was stunned to read "There are definitely 'five-waves-down'" when we have clear double zig-zag.

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    7. I can count 3,782 waves in the 2009-2020 bull market.

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  6. What time frame did you use Rusty to count your waves...Daily ?

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  7. Cash has exceeded the 5/12 peak.

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  8. Are we now in a upward trend Joe? 2900 resistance was blown away

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  9. Good morning all. While we were definitely headed in the right direction (up) looking for a 62% or 78% retrace at the 2,900 - 2,907 targets, the vaccine news extended the rally. We have exceeded the prior high in cash, and hourly futures do not yet have sign of a reversal candle.

    It is possible, that this is a larger 'news-driven' minute wave ((b)) back to the 90% level or better. The initial flat counts as this 3-3-5. There is nothing incorrect about what we did there.

    https://invst.ly/quj4y

    I did say it was 'possible' the whole FLAT wave was done and over there. If this wave makes only what looks like three-waves-up. Then it is 'possible' it is the larger minute ((b)) wave. If it makes five-waves-up, then it is 'possible' it is already the C wave of Intermediate (2). Clearly, the odds are only about 50:50 here, so patience, calm and flexibility are required. I see no 'likely' downside until or unless we cross 2,880 again, lower.

    TJ

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  10. Futures have exceeded 5/10 peak. Did ((C)) of larger B complete at 14th low? If so, would appear to be in larger C up, which would seem to suggest the triangle was not valid (as it would be a 2nd wave)?

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    Replies
    1. @GW .. see 11:21, above. Depends if this is a larger minute ((b)) wave up. If this makes only three waves, then the triangle was still possible and this could be a 1.618 C wave out of it.

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    2. ..and, if not, it is the C wave (or more higher).

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  11. Cash - 4/29 peak has been exceeded.

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  12. Is there a resistance level we can use to classify this as wave c of intermediate 2?

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    Replies
    1. It's possible you are jumping the gun. The first thing that needs to occur for a C wave is a clear five-waves-up. They are not in evidence yet. Remember, 1-2-3 is the same as A-B-C until it is not.

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    2. Could the gap up this morning in cash be seen as "possible" evidence of a 3rd wave acceleration gap (hinting at 5 waves)?
      Thanks.

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  13. Try to follow this hourly chart outline. See if provides just a three-wave sequence or a five-wave sequence.

    https://invst.ly/qujob

    TJ

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  14. Are we in wave 3 right now of that upward trend for minute B? I'm counting 3 but could be wrong

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  15. Just an observation - the moves down from 4/29 and from 5/10 are quite close to equality, and can be contained within parallel lines.

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  16. Just broke 2957.38 we're in a new upward trend

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  17. Daily S&P 500 futures look to in a bb pipe going sideways with upper bb at 2958. 100 ma at 2975 and 200ma at 3005 still above price. https://invst.ly/qul6a

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  18. This is the cash S&P since the market opened ...

    https://invst.ly/qulpw

    Like MAd MAgaZine; What? Me worry? Lol.

    TJ

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  19. Expanding triangle? May 1 (a), May 10 (b), May 14 (c), today (d)

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    1. I might be wrong, but my quotes show May 10-11 did not make a new high in the futures.

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    2. @TJ You are correct. Perhaps, May 10 (a), May 14 (b), Today (c), but that would be too eary for a triangle call. Just need to keep eyes open.

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  20. so the down count is officially over?

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  21. First breach of short term wedge.

    https://invst.ly/qum0u

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. . 'may' be having the 'throw-over' now. Max wedge in ES futures is 2,965.50. Cash is shown.

      https://invst.ly/qumdx

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    2. What about divergence. Cant see any on my charts.

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  22. ES futures held 2,964.50, a full point less than the invalidation and turned lower. Now breaking wedge to the down side (cash shown).

    https://invst.ly/qumly

    Put a wave counting stop over the high.
    TJ

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  23. im so confused - is the down count still in play? Why is 2965.50 the invalidation point?

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    Replies
    1. still the outstanding high in the recovery from 3/23 lows.
      Above that, and we look to the fib ruler for the next stopping point

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    2. I think it was just the invalidation point of the wedge in 5 minute chart.

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    3. Mobes .. that was just the invalidation for a 5-minute ending diagonal of the up wave. It did NOT invalidate before heading lower.

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    4. Oh I see thanks for the clarification. Did we get the 5 waves up today for wave c?

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    5. nvr mind just read your new post thanks joe

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  24. What about the Interactive margin settlements? I guess it all counts in the wave count.

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