There are several ways to describe the price movements today. The first, and simplest way, is to say that - as a lower low day was made on the ES daily chart - the daily slow stochastic lost its embedded status, and price and the 18-day SMA tried to come together. That chart is shown below.
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| ES - Daily - Lost of Embedded Slow Stochastic |
Unfortunately, these two events often happen nearly simultaneously, and so it was a good thing that yesterday, we were working on an impulse down pattern. The 18-day SMA was actually located at 2,809 to 2,807 - depending on which software package you believe (some show the Sunday night session separately which can account for some differences), so price didn't make it exactly there. It stopped around 2,812. But, that is so close that the description of the two "trying to come together" is really apt.
The second way to view what occurred today is using this two-hourly chart of the ES futures where the minute ((b)) wave is shown at the top.
Price movement lower, today, stopped precisely at the 62% retracement level of the up move. Are we done going down? Maybe, maybe not, but it doesn't look like it so far. There is no clear reversal candle signal yet.
A third way to view what happened today is through the lens of an Elliott Wave count. This third chart shows that "if you wish", you can view the entire move down as one impulse wave. The count is shown in this ES 30-minute chart.
If you examine the wave lengths you will find that they are correct, and the ((E)) wave of the running triangle exactly overlaps wave iii as it is required to do. There would be nothing wrong and the chart might predict there would be a seriously good announcement Sunday night or Monday morning which might allow a larger second wave upward to begin.
But, yet another version says, "hold on there bud, wave ii is very, very short in time compared to wave i." Therefore, what looks like a triangle, might be a running second wave with the needed overlap like the following chart.
The second way to view what occurred today is using this two-hourly chart of the ES futures where the minute ((b)) wave is shown at the top.
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| ES Futures - 2-Hr - 62% Retrace |
Price movement lower, today, stopped precisely at the 62% retracement level of the up move. Are we done going down? Maybe, maybe not, but it doesn't look like it so far. There is no clear reversal candle signal yet.
A third way to view what happened today is through the lens of an Elliott Wave count. This third chart shows that "if you wish", you can view the entire move down as one impulse wave. The count is shown in this ES 30-minute chart.
 |
| ES Futures - 30 Minute - One Impulse |
If you examine the wave lengths you will find that they are correct, and the ((E)) wave of the running triangle exactly overlaps wave iii as it is required to do. There would be nothing wrong and the chart might predict there would be a seriously good announcement Sunday night or Monday morning which might allow a larger second wave upward to begin.
But, yet another version says, "hold on there bud, wave ii is very, very short in time compared to wave i." Therefore, what looks like a triangle, might be a running second wave with the needed overlap like the following chart.
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| ES Futures - 30 Min - Impulse Still Forming |
This count version makes wave ii almost precisely as long in time as wave i. This chart might predict that wave iii is yet to develop, and Sunday night would have a gap lower. In this case, the "running second wave", legal because of the overlap, would be highly bearish. This might coincide with price getting below the 18-day SMA. In the case of this chart, then all of wave iii should stay below the trend line drawn from the top, as shown.
Let's see how it goes.
Have a good start to your weekend.
TraderJoe
Let's see how it goes.
Have a good start to your weekend.
TraderJoe
Ohh lots of possibilities which one are u leaning towards Joe?
ReplyDeleteThe unknown count is not replied to. Log in or select a user name.
Deletethanks ET, i will go for option ii
ReplyDeletehave a great weekend.
take care
joske
You have a great weekend as well, joske.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/3HJTd1i
ReplyDelete..depends where red ((4)) ended, whether iii is five-waves or not. Very, very difficult to say.
DeleteHi Joe, may I ask a question on EW rule? In the third chart, we have a triangle pattern for wave iv, where it is clear that none of the sub-waves of the triangle overlaps wave i.
ReplyDeleteHowever, let's say we have a case where subwave ((A)) overlaps wave i but subwave ((E)) does not, do we count it as wave i and iv overlaps (i.e. diagonal pattern) or the bigger structure remains as an impulse pattern?
Thank you and have a wonderful weekend.
hi migration; rather than dealing with hypotheticals, perhaps you could just show the actual prices you are wondering about. It is easier to deal with.
DeleteHi Joe, I'm afraid I don't have the chart. This is one of the nagging question I have since I'm still a student learning EW. Sometimes I find that a student can't find a direct answer from textbook, but has to fall back on consultation, logical deduction or experience. For example, I once questioned if wave iii can be a diagonal pattern. However, my logical deduction is wave iii can't, since a diagonal pattern must be "leading" or "ending".
DeleteLet me make a note to capture the chart if I ever come across one. I will bring up the topic again then.
Thanks and have a good weekend. :)
It is very intelligent ! According to this post the market will go either up or down. What a joke! Well, at least it is free. Many charge a lot of money for similar predictions - hehe. Anyway, an index, which I consider the leading one, shows a 3-way decline so far. Furthermore, some stocks I follow show a triangle consolidation. Overall, I believe that the market should go up before any significant decline
ReplyDeleteHere's what I want you to do. I want you to provide me with a chart of the exact prices to be obtained by the ES futures for every five minutes of both the over-night session and the pit session Sunday into Monday. I want this done ahead of time, and I want done by 13:00 ET so we know it is before the market open. If you can not do this, then I say that your prediction is that 'prices will either go up or down' as well.
DeleteWhat flamers like you never realize is that sometimes prices can do both in the same session. Have you never seen futures open lower only to have cash prices open higher? If not, you are no kind of trader or market analyst.
In short, your poorly written comment is taken as nothing but hostility towards this site. Oh, and the hostility is free at that!
I appreciate the comment, Tim. Rather than just saying I predicted something, I can show my Crude Oil projection as outlined in the third chart in this blog post. (The first two charts are the S&P500).
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/09/monthly-prices-may-be-wedging.html
Notice you will see the $20 figure. Of course. We were both wrong -$37 per bbl. for the May contract(lol!).
And with similar 'fun poking' your 20% UE call might be a tad late.
https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total-job-losses-april-23-2020-benefits-claims/
..as it may be occurring earlier than your projection.
Have fun.
TJ
Hi Joe yes your crude oil projection was right on as well. What is your new projection for the current oil market? How would you apply elliot waves to negative oil values?
DeleteI realize about the stock market more than you can ever imagine. I have been following your predictions for some times and I have to say that you are wrong the most of the times. For example, you called for the 4th wave up around March 20. Then on March 26 you finally admitted that you were wrong: I quote here you post "It means that while a Minor fourth wave is not invalidated yet, the odds of it occurring correctly have dropped." The list can go on and on. Also you tend to "find" a lot of ending/leading diagonals. Please understand that they are pretty rare.
DeleteBut anyway I like what you do
Thanks
Hey Oleg, since you know what the market is going to do, can you post some charts that show exactly how it's going to go from here so we can make the right investments based on it? Just make sure it's 100% correct though, I don't want to lose any money. Thanks! :P
DeleteOleg, if your analysis (* not prediction) is more accurate and precise than Elliott_Trader, I wonder why you would even want to spend (or waste) time reading this blog. Anyway Elliott_Trader posts his personal EW analysis that are derived using systematic methods.
DeleteI've been following and reading his blog for years and have learn a lot more him than from textbooks. His posts are not easy to understand at times and require at least intermediate ET knowledge. Readers have the freedom to visit or leave this blog, which is primarily for discussion of EW technique. Hence, posting chart is highly encouraged to aid discussion and imho, "seeing is believing" or "a picture paints a thousand words". Do you have a chart to show?
He-he. Have you read the today's comments? Many started to wonder if it is ABC down that was not mentioned in the weekend post by our "guru". But I actually said clearly on May 3 " Anyway, an index, which I consider the leading one, shows a 3-way decline so far.". Of course I won't disclose that index --ge-ge-ge. In terms of EW I read the Neely's book and several others on this subject. By the way, Neely has an interesting perspective on the current price action. Anyway, answering your question I read this blog just for fun. As a piece of advice, certainly do not trade based on this blog analysis or you would lose your shirt. Last but not least I actually trade on the stock market and by the way have already made a sizeable chunk of money on the rebound from the March low
DeleteThe fib may be meaningful but the upper BB, 200 ma, as well as next gap is around 65 percent or 300-301 on spy. My bet is we get one more higher high. Bears are licking their chops because of the weekly inverted hammer but I don't think it means very much yet.
ReplyDelete@JohnnyG I'm not going to take every case you cite, but I would see nothing wrong with the Russell doing something like this (Russell 2000 futures used).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qnxzr
The objective would be minute ((y)) = minute ((w)). As you said, it doesn't have to. I'm just saying this is well within the range of Elliott wave possibility and that's why I remain flexible at the moment.
TJ
ES futures gapped down and are trading more than -40 points lower. This rules out the count in the 1st of the two ES 30-min charts, above, because the fifth wave would now be longer than the third (which is already shorter than the first). That leaves the count in the second ES 30-min chart, which has the second wave almost exactly as long "in time" as the first wave. I simply see that as very useful information - naysayers not withstanding.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here's a link to an evening chart. Note that equality would occur around 2,746 depending on the accuracy of these prices.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qnydu
TJ
That's my lean too. Thanks for the late evening update.
DeleteDoes the overnight change your read? That count would put this as ((2)) of iii, yet it is the largest price retrace and doesn't look finished. How big could it go without invalidating?
DeleteI'm wondering if that was ABC down.
If some or most markets have only 50% retrace then at least there is a room for the up wave to go to 62% retrace !!! Furthemore, the up wave from the March low is not the 2nd wave al all. I am almost sure of it. This is one scenario. The decline to the March,20 is the C (!!) wave of the flat correction started with Dec 2018 decline, which was the wave A. Hence we should see the new AT market high before any significant decline that might be below the March,2020 low.
ReplyDeleteI have not opened up the trading platform yet, but this looks like a triangle in the overnight. Working on C?
ReplyDeleteGood morning all..trying to let the EWO with 120 candles be my guide. The EWO made a lower low last night of -44. That means that -40% of -44 = +18. So, if the EWO get's over +18 to +20, it would likely mean that a fourth wave has busted. Right now, the EWO is 9, and the entire retrace is only 0.236 on the whole wave with no overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qo8at
Still, 1,2,3 is A,B,C until it is not.
TJ
Two thoughts:
Delete1. Interesting that the 1,2,3 is A,B,C was not mentioned as a possibility on the weekend charts, and
2. As the chart 2's running wave ii would indeed be quite bearish in its implication, wouldnt the fact that iii could only reach i x .786 = iii before correcting be enough evidence that this count is unlikely?
Thanks
@GW .. Regarding 1,2,3 and A.B.C. By now I shouldn't have to continually repeat my self. The Eight Fold Path Method, is the featured post. Every one is expected to have fully read it and digested it before running their mouths with criticism. Here's what is says in BOLD.
Delete"IF the potential WAVE 4 breaks the channel, and does not rebound, or the EWO takes on more than -40% of the value of wave iii of 3, on the opposite side of zero, then, most likely, the up wave was only the alternate A-B-C, and there is nothing the Elliott analyst can do except objectively accept the result. 1,2,3 and A,B,C are equivalent until they are not."
TJ
THANKS TJ
ReplyDeleteTJ, can a fourth wave retrace more than 50% of a third wave in an impulse? This one already has. That's why I'm asking.
ReplyDeleteFourth wave invalidated with wave 1 over-lap I think...
ReplyDeleteTJ If you have time Can you summarize quickly your minding 4 days 10hres
ReplyDeleteThanks
SPX cash touched the middle of the downtrend channeland turn down .. meaning ???
ReplyDeleteI just don't see all that much to complain about in cash (SP500 15-min). The wave iii / c in cash is slightly longer than 1.618. That seems to mean we should err on the side of a wave iii.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qoa6h
Other than that, we are waiting to see if a new low is made. Right now, prices are still traveling fairly sideways and in a choppy, corrective fashion.
TJ
..cash clearly has no significant overlaps. And for those worried about futures .. the wave i / a down is clearly denoted at the 2,857 level in the chart from 7:05 pm last night. Thus, there is no wave iv to i overlap in the futures either.
DeletePossible to see a contracting triple zigzag, or it's exact equivalent cousin, the contracting leading diagonal on the ES 15-minute chart. One leads higher, one doesn't.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qobl8
TJ
Exhaustion gap?
ReplyDeleteLeading diagonal it was, and up to the 2,835 daily pivot (Classic calculation).
ReplyDeleteReminder of the 15:50 ET Interactive Brokers Full margin requirement time.
ReplyDelete