For reasons we explained in yesterday's comments, in the ES futures the minute ((b)) wave up completed in the over-night as a relatively rare triple zigzag. It ended between 1.50 to 1.62 times the minute ((a)) wave down. The hourly chart of that wave, and today's wave down is shown in the chart below.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Minute ((b)) Up Completion |
Today formed a clear five-waves-down impulse pattern with wave ((3)), above, just a bit longer than 1.618 x wave ((1)). We counted out this wave in near-real time.
Amazon earnings statement after the close drove the market to fresh new lows likely out of a triangle pattern. But, the five waves are clearly visible on the chart above. In doing so, the lower parallel channel was broken. A significant up wave - for even a retracement - has not started yet.
It is likely that this down wave will evolve into a minute ((c)) wave, lower, of Minor B. But, you know B waves. How low will they go? Well, the first target would be back to the 2,700 low. But, it could go much lower.
The first task, however, is to see if a significant retracement occurs.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Pretty good stuff...
ReplyDeleteso what happens in the fall then? Below March 23 lows?
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis Joe much appreciated you're a pro
ReplyDeleteHi Joe, I'm reading all your interesting analysis. Unfortunately, I dont have enough knowledge to undestand them correctly. Can you send me a link explaining the relation between time and wave degree.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I have posted this link before. I recommend listening to the whole interview.
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/interviews/interview-201710.asp
TJ
NT makes a great point about the varying influences of fundamentals, technicals, and liqudity. The FED has made it clear that the spigot is wide open and will remain so indefinitely. Who knows the outcome?
ReplyDeletePerhaps Im just misreading, but looks like ((3)) = ((1)) x 2.618. Also, the 5th wave looks like poss diag? Any thoughts here?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I should say that ((3)) looks much closer to ((1)) x 2.618 than 1.618.
DeleteNix the diagonal.
DeleteGood morning all. Just closed a gap on cash SPY/SPX
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qnbyu
TJ
Top 'O the mornin'...
DeleteHow are you reading the wave ((5)) on above chart? When time permits.
DeleteThanks.
I agree. Time frame where price and reality collide the only unknown..
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - the 18-day SMA is 2807 - 2809, depending on whose calculation you believe.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BqkeKuZU/
TJ
Looking for a little insight here. Thanks
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/yt3vDcb
..don't use a time frame that has less than 120 candles on it. The hourly chart now has only 38 bars. How many times do I have to say it. I only use the close charts for illustration once the bar chart (OHLC) has been used to confirm overlaps/non-overlaps, etc.
DeleteTry subdividing the 3rd wave ....only now in 4
DeleteReminder: in about two minutes at 15:50 ET is the time when Interactive Brokers client must post full margin, and not just day-trading margins. We have seen price moves of 10 - 35 points in LESS than one minute in that time frame.
ReplyDeleteToday the move was 25 - 13 or about 12 points in about two minutes. I'm am not sure how much discretion or leeway the broker has with time execution (in short I do not know the internal details of the policy.)
Delete..this movement DOES NOT always have to be down. It clearly depends on the nature of client's holdings at the time. It can be up. I have also seen it with a large quick move up, followed by a large quick reversal down.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete