Today made a marginally higher high wave, and then fell off a bit. In order to count the wave degrees properly, this hourly pattern on the ES futures would appear to be best described as three-wave sequences.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Potential E-D for C |
Wave minute ((ii)) was a 38% retrace. The up wave on the 5th to the 7th is likely not a five-wave-sequence because the middle leg - shown above as iv to v of (a) - would be "too short" for a third-of-a-third in comparison to the waves immediately preceding it, and after it. It is worth mentioning that two of us arrived at similar conclusions independently.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
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| ES Futures - 5 Min - FED Induced Impulse
Here is the alternate count that might finish the diagonal.
 Adding the chart with the FLAT possibility. But, as a diagonal, it was exceeded in less time than it took to build  |
ET or BBrider
ReplyDeleteMy diagonal mechanics need a little help and wondering if you could answer some of these questions.
1. Is wave 5 required to make a new high (which is sometimes a "throwover") to prove the diagonal or can it truncate?
2. In regards to time, the diagonal must be taken out in less time than it took to form. What is considered taken out? When the diagonal goes below wave 2 or below the starting point of wave 1?
3. Almost same question as 2 above... what if wave 1 in the diagonal had sub waves abc is the diagonal taken out beyond wave b of wave 1?
Thanks again for all your insight within the blog.
TJChuck
1. No, it 'can' truncate, particularly in C waves, Y waves and Z waves.
Delete2. Starting point of wave 1.
3. Same.
TJ
TJ, Thank you for your time.
DeleteWe are either in throwover or c of 3.
ReplyDeleteThe high this am on ES is a 50% extension of 1 so maybe it is the 3.
Deleteiii of V of C
ReplyDeleteCan someone explain to me why all of C wouldn't/couldn't be an impulse? Both ES and spy look like perfect impulses with flat/sharp alternation
ReplyDelete..please re-read the second sentence under the chart, above. The claimed 'third wave' of that pattern would be too short.
DeleteThe problem is the 3 of 3 is the shortest wave in that impulse.
ReplyDeleteThank you! Ok, so then I would suspect that ES is diagonal, Spy is impulse. Am I off base with that? That would allow ES and Spy to align correctly
DeleteWell, the pattern "looks" good, and has a good reaction off of 2,800. Trading under 2,700 would be the first step in confirmation.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qedqz
TJ
This chart hosting site in general is very slow for me (consistently in recent days .. 10-15 seconds if it pulls it up) and this chart in particular is timing out altogether, on multiple attempts. Anyone else? ... using Firefox here.
DeleteHaving the exact same issues Pedro.
DeleteSame issue here as well.
DeleteFed is gonna start buying junk bonds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/free-markets-are-dead-fed-start-buying-junk-bonds-junk-etfs
There really is not any market or capitalism left. 2849 is the stop on the diagonal. Will see if mother nature or the fed wins.
DeleteWelcome in a new Bubble...
DeleteYesterday YM & ES weren't on the same page. The possible end of iii in the diagonal count didn't work on the YM which unlike ES failed to make a new high. Otherwise their charts match. The remedy was that iii in both camps had not finished. 4 & 5 of iii duly arrived overnight putting YM & ES on the same page before a 68 pt selloff (iv). Then the Fed stimulus announcement to fresh highs (a of v). Then a 35 pt pullback (b of v). Now looking for new highs again for c of v. Both indices are presently in "agreement". Need 5 waves up to new highs in both for c of v after the 35 pt ES pullback to conclude the potential diagonal and end the upward correction. Anyone else observing this possibility.
ReplyDeleteThe best ALTERNATE pattern for a diagonal is this one, based on the higher highs last night making a 'possible' five-up for (a). Although it measures properly, it really begins to strain 'the right look' for a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qeeko
And, in this pattern minute ((iv)) must remain shorter than minute ((ii)) but overlap minute ((i)).
TJ
Sorry ET, can't access any of your "https://invst.ly" charts. Any other chart posting options?
DeleteSeconded. I've been having this same issue since yesterday.
DeleteSimilar loading problems here using Chrome. Usually load after several tries though.
DeleteET, Investing Snapshot system to share charts is near to collapse this days. Maybe you can show the charts in your old flickr.com account. Thank you.
DeleteI hear the concern.
DeleteES 5-min, look for a triangle from 09:30 to 11:30 ET
ReplyDeletePicture added to end of post for easier access.
DeleteThank you Joe, and now it looks like an ending diagonal for v
DeleteET, forgive me but I forget the 4th wave expected reading on the AO, but S&P 500 daily futures are overbought, AO approaching zero, and at the upper bb: https://invst.ly/qefo6
ReplyDeletejoe how will you decide if you are going to count this whole move up as a 2/b wave and
ReplyDeleteor
use last years b wave and subsequent c wave monster crash and begin an upward impulsive count
because it seems to me each as likely. or doesnt it matter because even if ATH you can count 3 waves as B or 5 waves as 1
The speed and nature of any down moves will help. By 'nature' I mean clear impulsive or corrective.
Deleteyes that is a good thought thanks
DeleteES 5-min: There's a new high after the triangle
ReplyDeleteThe alternate for this impulse, is the end of the diagonal, with 10:00 ET as (a), 11:30 as (b), and this up wave as (c). The triangle structure 'may' be too large in price and time for a fourth wave compared to ii. Chart will be added to end of post for ease of access.
Delete..ALT chart added.
DeleteES 5-min 'five-waves-up' in the form of a diagonal from 11:30 ET to 13:30 ET.
Delete..down wave from the high too long for any more of the last diagonal. This is either the retrace of the last diagonal or the start of a down move.
DeleteES 5-min ..now into five-waves-down off the high. When this wave ends, if the retrace holds, then there should 'at 'least' be five more waves down.
DeleteES 1-min, now possible to call five larger waves down as a diagonal.
DeleteOn your two 5min charts, on the triangle, ((A)) to ((B)) leg would be 3 waves, whereas on the other, iv to v of (a) would be 5 waves I believe. As it can't be both, can't we eliminate one by focusing on this small leg up?
ReplyDeleteThanks
..water under the bridge. A triangle "should not" have those near 100% proportions, however. No more on this topic at this time. Moving on to newer waves.
DeleteBelow 2,768.50, if price gets there, the (c) wave diagonal would be fully retraced lower. Not until or unless; otherwise can be a leading diagonal with a "deep retrace". Welcome to 'real world' Elliott alternates.
ReplyDeleteThere goes 2,768.50, and the upward (previous) diagonal (c) wave has been taken out fully in less time than it took to form. The only other upward possibility I could see for today is that is a very long FLAT in time. But, only if they impulse to a new high at the close.
Deletethanks for those updated charts on the main post - appreciated!
ReplyDeleteI added the chart with the completed diagonal or FLAT (alternate) possibility to the end of the post.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Just a reminder .."the markets will be entirely closed on 4-10 due to the Good Friday holiday. So once the markets close at 4 PM CST on Thursday evening they will not re-open until Sunday at 5 PM CST."
ReplyDeleteLet's see what happens at 15:50 EST when the Interactive-Brokers (I-B) clients are forced to margin up or close positions each day.
ReplyDelete..look at that non-sense .. 2,780 to 2,770 in 'one-minute'!
DeleteWhat does that mean?
DeleteForced market movement. Less natural.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete