Yesterday, we noted how no gaps were filled. We also clearly stated and showed that the minute ((x)) wave didn't have to be over yet. Not to disappoint us, the market gapped up at the open, and traveled higher until it back-tested the Minor A wave up trend line again. Readers of this blog should plot a four-hour chart of the ES futures to see just now precisely this occurred.
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| SPY - 15 Min - Gap Fills |
In doing so, the gap at the black dashed line was filled, and the minute ((x)) wave attained the 78.6% Fibonacci retrace level rather precisely. Then, prices began moving downward in a whipsaw fashion to fill the opening gap, shown by the black circle, and ultimately close below it. Because of the settlement price, the daily ES confirmed the loss of it's slow stochastic reading again.
Because the minute ((x)) wave did not attain the 90% level, we can not (yet) classify this wave as a flat b wave. We must follow the rules. Therefore, we are holding to the multiple zigzag classification of the down wave for the time being. So, one should then also draw a new parallel between the top, minute ((w)) and minute ((x)) on the hourly SPY chart. The first sign of a flat wave - or something larger upward - would be if that parallel was broken to the upside.
This chart was added after the close. It is the best alternate I see. The purpose is to give the minute ((a)) wave of Minor B more downward length.
The pattern looks more weird on cash than it does on the futures. Wave (v) would need to become longer than wave (iii).
This chart was added after the close. It is the best alternate I see. The purpose is to give the minute ((a)) wave of Minor B more downward length.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Potential downward Diagonal for Minute ((a)) |
The pattern looks more weird on cash than it does on the futures. Wave (v) would need to become longer than wave (iii).
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
This is the best alternate I see. The purpose is to give the minute ((a)) wave of Minor B more downward length. It looks more weird on cash than it does on futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qj-vu
TJ
Does the alternate presume a necessary 5 wave structure up at the end of minor B?
ReplyDeleteMinor B is a down wave. It's ending wave will be a down wave.
DeleteI meant if minor C following had to be an impulse or ED. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteEither is acceptable, but the diagonal would be telling.
DeleteES (1 min) very short term: five-waves down off the 09:30 ET high. This includes a 1.618 wave ((3)) x ((1)) wave.
ReplyDeleteChart -
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qkaw8
TJ
..just fyi 2,800 is the 62% retrace level on ES.
Delete..hit 2,800+, downward overlap on last up wave. 'Possible' E-D 4th wave acceptable to down to 2,793.
Delete..now below 2,793; suggest tiny little failure in the ED at 2,801.00
Delete..there's a new low below the 2,785 morning low. Assessment of a failure in the E-D was correct.
Delete..recent up wave meets 1-2-i-ii, down, parameters but needs to make a new low.
Delete..up wave busted 1-2-i-ii parameters; by traveling over down trend line.
Delete..this suggests the move down, so far is a-b-c, 'possibly' of yet another grinding intraday diagonal.
DeleteB of 5 on Gold 4hr?
ReplyDeleteuse ticks/can get 10 dwn 3up
ReplyDeleteno follow through for bears on a Friday of all days. Welp, back to another count for me
ReplyDeleteLatest AAII survey makes further upside likely. There's a good case at present for this being b of 2 from 2718/2727 ES/SPX. We will probably see .618 retrace from the top - in first week of May?, and maybe 3k or close to?
ReplyDeleteMy observation is that a new high next week would make the rebound from the low equal to and longer in time than the full decline, opening the door for it to be the full upward correction.
ES 5-min, there is now a 1.618 wave to the upside.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's the Interactive Brokers full margin requirement at 15:50 ES .. 2,836 to 2,825 in LESS than one minute.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete