Here is a look at the daily closing Dow along with some notes regarding many of the degree considerations. Only the closes are used so that the form of the waves is more apparent.
 |
| DJIA Cash Index - Daily - Closing Prices |
The bottom has tentatively been labeled as Intermediate (1), knowing full-well the alternate is that it is Intermediate (C). For chart clarity only single parentheses ( ) are used for minute waves. Symbols 1 - 5 and A are minor waves.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
If (a) and (b) labelling are to be used, then I'd go with (c) and A. instead of (1). Then I'd have to go with (a) where (i) is and (b) where (ii) is, with the move up your A a (c) to complete B. Which, would suggest a major sell-off to new lows in C. Then, at least, we're not mixing apples and oranges.
ReplyDeleteI personally, think (1) is actually Wave C to complete a Wave 4 correction that started with the swoon in the Christmas 2018 lows, thus the rally off the March 2020 lows is the early moves of a Wave 50 headed to new highs.
But I'm not also right, and the market always is.
Wave 5 (not wave 50 I miswrote.)
DeleteMinor A at the low instead of Intermediate (1) would be a degree violation, because it would be larger than the previous Intermediate (A) at the 2018-9 low. Not good in my book. Most wave counters fail to take into consideration the sizes of the previous waves. (1) and (A) would be of the same degree, and thus would not be a degree violation.
DeleteIf this March swoon is part of the correction that began in late 2018 then the 2020 swoon would be a C wave. No?
DeletePlease re-read the first sentence under the chart in reference to the (C) wave. That would 'also' fit as a completed diagonal. In short, we have a diagonal, and can not yet confirm whether it is "Leading" or "Ending".
DeleteJoe, thanks for the update. So if this is a 3 wave down, doesn't that mean either this is a type of flat or triangle for a correction of the previous 5 wave advance from 2009 OR for a much bigger correction this would be the beginning of a leading diagonal down awaiting a 3rd wave lower that would be longer than the 1st abc lower. Would that be correct thinking? Thanks Sam
ReplyDelete..the diagonal is shown as five waves down, not three.
DeleteJoe , isn't it just the c wave that's the diagonal? You have a, b, the c. Thanks
Delete..no, because then the first sub-wave of the diagonal is longer in price than all of (a) - and that would be a degree violation. You would be saying that a smaller sub-wave i, of (c) is longer in price than all of (a), and that is a degree violation. That's why (a) is shown as a subwave of the longer 1, and is thus, NOT a degree violation.
Delete..can be counted as five non-overlapping waves up. If three waves ended here, it would be 'shorter in time' than (1), down.
ReplyDeleteThanks ET, Will be interesting to note were we are at the 100% time extension of (1).
ReplyDeleteHere is a look at 4-Hr GOLD. It may be finishing as a diagonal. Reason: Wave ((iii)) is shorter than wave ((i)) - use the Fibo ruler on the left - and they "look" like three-wave sequences. Further wave ((iv)) has already overlapped wave ((i)). Further, the EWO is diverging.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qhzte
In order to remain valid, wave ((iv)) 'may not' cross below 1,671. Use the Fibo ruler on the right. Wave ((iv)) must remain shorter than wave ((ii)). NO other theory provides such clear action / invalidation points as Elliott Wave.
TJ
I won't be following the overnight market all night, but here are some thoughts. Clearly, the bulls have to get over 2,885 to start a new portion of an up wave. But, the evening started with a gap down. So, with the NQ lagging the ES, it brings this structure to mind.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qhzzu
IF the minor A wave has finished, we might be beginning the minor B wave down as an expanding diagonal. This diagonal would become much more highly probable under the prior 'b' wave low at 2,823. And, if price crosses that level, then it should trade below - and possibly ALOT below - the 100% x iii level at 2,809.
Sometimes wave v's go to 1.618 x iii or more.
Best wishes to all.
TJ
..note that the downward wave has already overlapped on the prior upward 'a' wave .. a sign of weakness. Again, in no case can iv travel above wave ii - clear invalidation points.
DeleteHi TJ Can you show us your analyse using the Elliott Wave Oscillator on 2 hours.
ReplyDeleteThere a lot of interesting things out there but i can't conclude.
Thanks https://invst.ly/qi78v
https://invst.ly/qi7g0 one hour
DeleteI showed the four-hour chart on Friday with the labeled count.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/04/extended-first-wave-xi.html
Nothing further on this topic.
After some whipping around last night, the market did completely qualify for a diagonal pattern downward by crossing the level at which (v) exceeds (iii).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qi84r
And someone said, "it doesn't always have to be complicated". Lol.
TJ
..keep in mind that unless or until the low of 2,754 is exceeded lower the same exact three zigzags that are required to make up this diagonal count can 'also' be w-x-y-x-z for a 62% retracing second wave at this point in its travel.
ReplyDeleteIn that case it would be an "expanding triple zigzag" and not a diagonal of any type. Not an ending diagonal, and not a leading diagonal. If the 2,754 low IS taken out, then it is likely a leading diagonal.
May WTI at a dollar!!!!!
ReplyDeletecontract expiry, its worthless so no biggie should already have rolled into June
ReplyDeleteIt still trades all day
ReplyDeleteI don't know exactly how taking physical delivery of a futures contract product held at expiration works, but why wouldn't someone in the oil money business be buying like crazy the May contract and then sell the June one? Buy at a dollar sell at $20, what's not to like?
DeleteYou have to store it for a month. If you dont have/cant get storage............
Deletealso if you did have storage it will cost you plenty to truck or ship said oil to your holding facility .
DeleteIf your tankage is within the Cushing system, then they can pump it around reasonably. If your storage is not in the system, then, like you say, $$$.
DeleteSeems anyone with available storage at Cushing is in the catbird seat! :o)
ReplyDeleteES futures just made a new low in the after-hours. Diagonal was leading OR diagonal is continuing in it's fifth wave.
ReplyDelete..this would be the continuing diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qieyx
TJ
Risking getting a bit ahead of myself, may I suggest the rally from 3/23 was possibly a b wave. SPX cash has a near a=c relationship to within 1 or 2 pts. The retrace was over the 50% but below the 61.8%. Days down vs days up 22 vs 18. We now have 5 waves down in a potential leading diagonal which may count as i of 1 of c. At roughly 80 pts (and possibly a bit more) proportion is about right. I would estimate a potential c wave down to be 800 to 1000 pts and 250 to 330 pts for 1 of c. This would conclude in May and no later than June.
DeleteThank you for the superb insights as always Joe...hope you and your family are doing well during these strange times...cheers
ReplyDelete