The chart below of the cash SPY shows that it (and the SPX) "went marginally over the top". Since they clearly made the 90% retrace level, they qualified for the Minute ((b)) wave that has been discussed for several days now. We said we could not call them "b" waves until they reached that 90% level, and here they are - and then some.
 |
| SPY - 30 Min - Minute ((b)) |
Today's up movement filled that cash gap at the 287 level shown by the black dashed line. However, there are now two open gaps below the current price - as shown by the red circles. The higher high occurred on a divergence with the EWO, and the day ended with a reversal candle. As typical, a confirming significant lower close candle in the cash market would be needed to better confirm the activation of the pattern.
Note that the up wave took a longer time to reach the new high than the down wave took to form. Also note that the futures have not (as yet) eeked out a new high. There would be nothing wrong if they did.
Also, note on the daily chart that the ES slow stochastic is now back up above 80 at just the "over-bought" level, as it is not embedded. But, price bias is higher, and price is not up to a daily upper Bollinger Band.
Blog readers are encouraged to draw the relevant up trend lines and monitor the situation to see if price breaks below them, and back-tests. The location of minute wave ((c)) can not be precisely located at this time, but it may be expected to travel below minute ((a)), even well below it - if price chooses.
But let's take one thing at a time and see if confirmation of a move lower begins to occur.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
In '29, the first drop was almost 50%, this time closer to 35%.
ReplyDeleteIn '29, it took 5 months to recover half the drop, this time more than half recovered in less than a month.
There are similarities, but big differences also. I suspect when this is done, that the flat wave at the end of March will have been a B or X, and the full rebound will be finished within a week.
To clarify, I'm saying the degree of the correction probably needs to be raised by one, i.e., the A wave looking to complete soon was actually completed on March 26.
ReplyDeleteThe expanded flat is the most nefarious tool in Mr. Market's arsenal. The move past the A wave invariably serves to stoke bullish sentiment just before the onset of an unexpected C wave in the opposite direction. When Mr Market wants to befuddle the most, it seems that is his instrument of choice...lol!
ReplyDeleteThat would make your potential B wave some kind of triangle it seems...
ReplyDeleteI leave the count open, it will be tricky as it has been.
ReplyDeleteThis hourly ES chart is still compliant with 'degree labeling' because the second 'a' wave is smaller than the (w) wave of larger degree. Now back-testing the orange up trend line. Unfortunately, also by degree labeling, we can not say the degree has turned until there is a wave larger than (x).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qlthm
TJ
..since the low; "three waves up" and a >90% down wave.
DeleteLooks like we are in some kind triangle, possibly b of a ZZ down...?
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know the relative frequency of c = a vs 1.618 a for ZZs?
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; up wave now longer in time than down wave, and 'minimum' FLAT expectation fulfilled. Watch out for extension in fifth wave, but not below 2,865.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qlvn8
TJ
..not sure wave ((5)) is done yet, but ((3)) and ((1)), up, very close in price. But, again, not below 2,865.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qlvpl
TJ
Upward flat for ES now looking more likely imo...
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; There's a higher high. Looks like wave ((5)) extending in some manner.
ReplyDelete..wave ((5)) extended a little, and now falling off. Down wave now too larger for a further diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qlwg5
TJ
..just a reminder in about 10-min at 15:50 ET, Interactive Brokers requires all clients to "fully" margin. That time-frame sometimes sees moves of 10 - 20 S&P points in ONE minute. Also, GOOG, AMD report after the close, and FED tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTJ
fyi - 'possible' H&S here, has been activated.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qlx0r
TJ
..H&S target or equal distance from neck met.
DeleteES new LOD
DeleteI had potential H&S target a bit lower...
DeleteTim, maybe computerized trading makes price discovery faster?
ReplyDeleteIf you view it as retracement percentages:
In '29, the first 1 month rally was .382 retrace. In 2020, that took 3 days.
In '29, the 5 month rally retraced .5. In 2020, after 1 month it is near .618.
So maybe it all happened a lot faster this time and the roll over comes a lot quicker?
The intervening decline to match the 15% selloff in '29 was the flat wave starting late March - nearly 10% decline.
ReplyDeleteJust noticed target met AFTER you posted chart..
ReplyDeleteES just hit the .618 fib now with hourly bear divergence.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Price is still inside of minute ((b)) = 1.382 x ((a)) until 2,950. Meanwhile, one might watch for a triangle on the ES 5-min., subject to the usual triangle invalidation levels.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qmat5
TJ
Possible ED (1min) that just broke the bottom trend line.
ReplyDeleteAlso of note the futures have reached the upper BB line
DeleteWith the new high the diagonal is invalidated
DeleteOr we completed 5 waves from march low today
ReplyDeleteWith the slight higher high, downward overlap, and putting the wave in a slightly larger context, including Fibonacci, this count could work, as well.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qmcne
Bear in mind the "middle wave" shown as black "b" is too large for an impulse count upward and creates degree violations.
TJ
..note that the second circle-1, ((1)), is smaller than 'a', and may therefore be a legitimate sub-wave.
Delete..also note that ((1)) and ((3)) are higher than their respective prior highs - which is the usual formation in a diagonal.
Deleteupdate ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qmcuo
TJ
can it be impulse off march low without 1.618 wave? ewo looks right.
ReplyDeleteor are we now at wxyxz as i alluded to given a further extension?
The second one looks good. How do you read it from 2717?
DeleteHere's an update. A diagonal's lengths measurements have not broken yet. Time measurements are not ideal. One steep up trend line has been broken.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qmehq
Have to take this step-by-step.
TJ
..need to watch for relevant overlaps; speed of any down move, etc.
DeleteIt would be remarkable to see a move below 2926.38 followed by a new high if just a third done. That would certainly whipsaw a few folk....
DeleteReminder: FOMC report at top of the hour; followed by a press conference I believe.
ReplyDeleteFirst set of 5 waves down
ReplyDeleteFrom what I can see, a larger diagonal would invalidate below 2,920. Not there yet. Currently at ~2,930.
ReplyDeleteThis would be the larger alternate diagonal, and it's invalidation.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/qmfb7
TJ
..there is a new higher high
DeleteDaily S&P 500 futures at the upper bb:https://invst.ly/qmfyu
ReplyDeleteReminder: in about 5 min - at 15:50 ET - Interactive Brokers clients must post full margin, not day-trade margins. We have seen moves of 10 - 30 points in LESS than 1 minute in that time frame. Yesterday was down. Direction varies.
ReplyDelete..there it is; ES 2945 to 35 in less than 1 minute,
DeleteReminder: lots and lots of earnings after the close today, including MSFT, Samsung, FB, GE, Mastercard, Boeing, YUM, etc.
ReplyDelete