There was a previous gap on the chart, shown by the orange dotted line. Prices today were in such a hurry to get lower that they "gapped through the gap" - leaving both gaps in the SPY 15-min chart below technically unfilled.
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| SPY - 15 Min - A 2.618 Wave |
Yesterday, I did a lot of counting on the ES E-mini futures, and you are welcome to view those charts in yesterday's comments section.
Today, just to be easier on the eyes, I thought I'd show a cash index - the SPY. Besides the gap through the gap, you can also see that the downward wave (iii) was a 2.618 extension. If it makes a lower low tomorrow, there will be five-waves-down. I have been showing an expanding diagonal on ES futures. If there is a lower low on the futures below today's low, then it will likely mean the 'whole wave' is just the whole overall expanding diagonal, lower. Hard to tell without counting waves through the night. I'd rather get some shut-eye.
There are no counting guarantees. Wave (iv) does not have to be over yet. It could be. Right now it is a very sideways looking wave and takes more 'time' than wave (ii). And, then for this count, wave (v) must make a new low.
Note, there are not 120 candles on the chart for this wave, yet, so the EWO does not have to come all the way back to the zero line.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Could the larger gap in Spy be counted as a 3 wave in futures? If so 5 waves may have completed.
ReplyDelete..see 11:17 am, below.
Deletethank you
Deletestrange, i can make 5 waves down in spy, but es just 3 and this 4th is WAY outside the channel.
ReplyDelete..see 11:17 am below.
DeleteSo, there is nothing impulsive downward yet. If the up wave turns into an impulse, as sketched out - with a triangle here, then we 'may' have only three-waves down to yesterday's 2.618 x (i) or (a). It would be a (c) wave, and this might only start a large triangle for the minute ((b)) wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qjcyo
The real question is, "will this wave impulse upward, or not?"
TJ
think the answer is in the previous degree trend ... W 4 now or ??
ReplyDeletewas it just an abc down ??
Delete..see below.
DeleteSo, IFF (IF and only if) it was three waves down, a good B wave can also be a stubborn double zigzag or even triple zigzag -- just to make counting more difficult!
ReplyDeleteso far this orning 3 wav extension 1.618
ReplyDeletemorning
Deletein SPX
DeleteFrom the futures, since there was an exact "double-bottom" in the overnight, it is also possible we are getting a wedge-shaped diagonal c wave, as below, because it is very, very overlapping. This would be a "last chance" fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qjdz6
TJ
..it 'could' also be an X wave of a double-zigzag.
DeleteFrom the all time high to March low, on the rebound, you were still calling it wave 4 at .618 retrace of the third wave down.
DeleteThis rebound is .5 retrace of the third wave down at this time.
Can it still be a wave 4 if it ends as an a-b-c from the low?
4 or X until we know more...
DeleteStill overlapping .. giving it as much time as possible, but 'could have' ended.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qjej1
TJ
Just an observation. ((3))>((1)) in time I believe.
Deletei think that you are miss-reading the a-b-c before the ((1)). It might be confusing as the a-b-c are non-bold and slightly larger font.
DeleteI see. If ((1)) started prior to 22nd, then I'm with you.
DeleteThat would make "c" roughly = "a" x 2.00.
DeleteAlso, looks like ((3)) < ((1)) x .382. If so, that's a pretty meager ((3)).
Delete@greywaver 3 of the diagonal might not be done yet...we don't really know until there is a wave down that is larger than 2 down. Unless TJ has better advice on this matter.
DeletePossible throw over for wave 5
Delete2801.06
ReplyDeletetop of channel. So probably X? These creeping up days are hard as heck to count
ReplyDeleteI don't think the diagonal has invalidated yet as 5 is still shorter than 3 in both price and time.
Deleteah ok, thank you
DeleteIs something different happening?
ReplyDeleteI believe diag as shown now invalidated. Perhaps we are in "c" of 3 now?
ReplyDeleteDaily S&P 500 futures showing the embedded slow. stoch. as having been lost:https://invst.ly/qjgpk
ReplyDeleteThe 2,808 level looks like a 'regular' three .. thanks to the the margin requirements over at Interactive-Broker. Draw a parallel off 2777.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..and high enough to be more likely the X wave.
DeleteBasis my chart, a move below 2793.5 would exceed ((2)).
ReplyDeleteJust exceeded.
DeleteWe have retraced just over 50% of the selloff from 16th.
DeleteHere's a revised chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/qjg-p
TJ