In the ES 2-Hr chart we showed yesterday, the indicators seem to have rolled lower with lower lows. Today, also made a daily new price low versus yesterday.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Indicators Lower Lows |
There is one way we can count a still continuing diagonal, upward. Wave ((3)), above, becomes ((1)); wave ((5)) becomes ((3)); today's low becomes wave ((4)); and a new high or failure becomes ((5)) of C. The daily slow stochastic is still embedded, and price is over the 18-day SMA and so has positive bias. Therefore, we can not yet positively rule out this potential alternate. However, this scenario would invalidate if price got below 2,738.50 prior to making a new high.
Because the indicators have rolled, as above, and because the RSI is not yet in oversold territory on an intraday chart, the alternate above likely has lower odds. But, there are weekly unemployment claims tomorrow morning - and that could drive some volatility.
In the futures, it would be nice to see one more lower low below today's 2,751.25 low to make a clean impulse, before starting a more corrective wave, upward.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Looks like the new lower low was put in during the after-hours.
ReplyDeleteAnd the alt currently has not busted 2738.5, it has lost all wedge shape.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your work.
Welcome. If that is a true impulse down, it would also tend to kill the larger diagonal.
DeleteBacktesting the lower wedge line in the overnight.
DeleteSo an interesting observation for futures it was an ed and for cash it was ld. Same pattern
ReplyDelete5 waves down can be a correction ending C wave in Industrials, SP500, and Russell 2000, with peak last Thursday resulting in 3 step - a-b-c - correction that appears to be completing this morning. All depends on how the expected bounce unfolds.
ReplyDeleteSPX island reversal top still in play. Possible H&S top, with right shoulder almost complete. Need solid break out of recent trading range, approximately 2750 to 2800.
ReplyDeleteWhat is sp doing up and down swings
ReplyDeleteExpanding diagonal from overnight high?
ReplyDeletemacd on daily S&P 500 futures beginning to roll over at the zero line while the slow stoch. is still embedded but has crossed down. https://invst.ly/qgz3-
ReplyDeleteDaily CL appears to be directing the market: https://invst.ly/qgzjk
ReplyDeleteTriangle for 2nd wave ?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/gClvdw1
Nice try, but one of the arcane rules is that wave 2 cannot be a triangle. However, wave 2 can be a complex correction that ends with a triangle.
DeleteFwiw, I have same but for B wave.
Delete@Grey, What is the surrounding context for that B wave?
DeleteIm thinking a poss 2nd wave of larger 3rd.
DeleteThanks @Grey. Whether this horizontal wave is a B or 2, my current thought is that a C or 3 down begins soon.
DeleteI'd opt for C, lol.
Deletenasdaq is holding up the market, might have just retraced the first impulse down
ReplyDelete