Slap Me Silly

A lot of people like to take an Elliott wave analyst out to the woodshed and beat them into a fine mixture of compost. I want to take this opportunity to do it myself, and save you all the trouble. As you know, I originally started counting the move from the 14 May bottom as a corrective move. So, how in the world, does this analyst get off now potentially calling the up wave as an impulse? This seems like "snake oil" at best or maybe "dishonesty" at worst. Contrary to many paid services, when I make a mistake of some significant kind I like to examine where I went wrong and why, especially to see if degree labels were violated somewhere. Hopefully, I can learn from it.

In the spirit of learning, let me remind you of my initial count from the low.

ES Futures - 5 Min - Corrective From May 14th Low

Now, to be honest, you have to remember I was highly focused on that ((A)) wave on the one minute chart and showing you how to count that wave without violating degree labels. To refresh your memory, refer to this CHART.

Working on such a small time scale as the linked chart, above, can really cause some stress and myopia, but that was not the problem. The chart below shows what I missed at the low.

ES Futures - 5 Min - Missed Diagonal

Those first three waves were, in fact, an a-b-c sequence. But they were a-b-c of ((1)) in a larger contracting leading diagonal that completed after the regular session. Notice that all the needed requirements of a diagonal are met: ((5)) is less than ((3)) in price and time, and ((3)) is less than ((1)) in price and time, and ((4)) is less than ((2)) in price and time, and overlaps wave ((1)).

The reason I am taking the time to show you these charts in this detail is strictly for learning. People scream at me, "You find too many diagonals!" Well - you know what - I missed this one, and it had a large opportunity cost (upward trades not taken).

But mostly, I show you these charts so you can learn something too. Did you find the diagonal? Did you care? Or, like other charting 'professionals' with paid services, did you just ignore degree labeling and say (literally), "Um.. it looks impulsive". No, not an impulse - a diagonal. And, as a diagonal, it meets all degree labeling requirements.

And, then the wave following (which in the cash S&P did not overlap, and I said, "it didn't overlap - do you trust it?") had to be some kind of flat wave, or compound flat wave as it did overlap in the ES futures.

So, now you know. An error was made because I was trying to help show you short term degree labeling. And the results of such efforts was a mistake made in the type of upward direction. Is that honest enough? Does anyone else on the web give you that * for free *?

Hope it helps,

TraderJoe