Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Larger Minute ((b)) Wave

Today, using The Eight Fold Path Method, the futures may trace out an impulse if they can tonight trade over the prior 2,976 high. If that happens, and an impulse up is recorded, then it is possible we are just making a larger minute ((b)) wave, or circle-b, wave up for an expanded flat, and today's impulse is the minute (a) wave up. Here is the daily chart with the count.

ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((b)) Circle-b Up

IF a 105 - 132% x minute ((a)) = minute ((b)) wave can be made, then it is possible to get the expanded flat for the Minor B wave. The higher highs are already generating lots of bullishness. From a degree labeling standpoint, I see nothing wrong with this count because Minor A is the larger wave in comparison to minute ((b)), circle-b. That means that minute ((b)) must simply remain shorter in time than the Minor A wave. So far, that is not a problem. And, of course, it must remain shorter in price than Minor A, its larger wave - and that is not a problem either.

Also - by measurement - the minuet (c) wave of the minute ((a)) wave down or circle-a is shorter in price than all of the minute ((ii)) wave, lower, circle-ii. So, this fits with degree labeling also, and the wave structures seem to fit.

Part of the technical reason for this count is the location of 1) the 100 & 200 day SMA's, and 2) the location of the upper daily Bollinger Bands. With those factors, as well as the extreme gaps formed in the cash charts, it is hard to be as bullish as those who see an immediate C wave 'going to the moon'.

Have a great start to the evening.
TraderJoe

22 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe. Is your alternate (red) B dead for the reasons you cite in the last paragraph above?

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    1. hi Roy & welcome .. yes, until something proves different.

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  2. Certainly over the 3K area will be very tough. Or should be! Look at daily chart, weekly or monthly!

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    1. Agreed. I have been expecting a re-visit to the 3K region with reclaim of 2900. It will be formidable resistance...

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  3. w1 from 2766 was ~86 pts so I was looking for a 86 wave up from 2910 area. Roughly

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  4. I agree - the last resistance was 2900 now it appears its been moved to 3100 lol

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  5. IF the expanding diagonal from the 1-min chart invalidates (see orange line below), then consider the triangle option that I noted in earlier comments.

    https://invst.ly/qvncr

    TJ

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  6. There's a new moon tomorrow, often a turn around new/full moons.
    Vix May contracts expired yesterday, vix was nicely pinned by the market makers.
    Big fib at 2540.

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  7. With 120 candles now on the ES 1-Hr chart, this could be 'one' of a couple of locations for a triangle. If it breaks the current ((c)) wave, lower, then the potential triangle could expand a bit. So, be flexible, patient and calm.

    https://invst.ly/qvyug

    TJ

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  8. Yes, new moon highs, sometimes 3 market days after moon. Hopefully support in 2940s holds. It should. 3K or bust!

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  9. Now with the breakdown below the former ((c)) wave, look for a 78.6% retrace or thereabouts for a new down wave, for new ((c)) wave. But for a triangle, in no case below ((a)). We have seen some "a" waves up where the fifth wave truncates, and that may have occurred. So, be calm, flexible and patient. The market is really getting chopped up in both directions.

    TJ

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    1. Chart update, below. If a triangle invalidates, then perhaps a "last chance flat"

      https://invst.ly/qvzht

      TJ

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  10. Joe-
    Your exp diag (5th) from yesterday appears to have measured out. If so, could this have been a truncated 5th, and everything since is in the next wave down?
    https://invst.ly/qvlan

    Thanks

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    1. GW: just curious as to why wave 4 is allowed to enter the territory of wave 1?
      Thanks for your numerous posts GW!

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    2. Chart is Joe's expanding diagonal from yesterday. For diag., 4 has to overlap.

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    3. @GW .. yes, as I mentioned at 11:23 am, a truncated fifth wave is possible in an 'a' wave. We have seen a few of those, but, also going into a holiday weekend, a longish triangle like we are seeing now on the hourly chart is possible too.

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    4. @Luc .. GW is correct about the overlapping fourth wave in an expanding diagonal.

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  11. Thanks Joe and GW for the answers. Make sense.

    Congrats Joe and seeing your count now being used by EWIntl. I agree with you their wave B is short compare to wave A. They need to practice more patience like you teach us to do! Continue the excellent work! Much appreciated.

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  12. The move down from roughly 9:45am to 11:30am looks like an impluse down. Movement since then looks corrective,that indicates more downside ahead, IMO.

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  13. Jerome powell speaks at 2:30 pm. Let's see how the market likes it. Could "patience" become a "bad" word today?

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  14. A new post has been started to explain a mistake made.

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