Due to some people who can not control themselves, and as I had warned several times in the past, this blog is now closed for random commenting. Comments will now be allowed by moderation only. This means you now have to submit a comment and have it approved before it will be posted. And, the only comments or questions that will be allowed are those relating to Elliott Wave analysis and related technical analysis. I will now chose which comments to publish and when.
Nothing changed today. We are still counting the minute ((b)) wave, higher. Over the weekend, it was posed that the latest (x) wave could be a triangle. Today was an inside day, so, in short, prices moved sideways and took up time: the very characteristics of a triangle.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Minute ((b)) |
One form of a valid triangle can already be counted at this morning's opening low. A slightly longer form is shown above in case the cash market wishes to become more complex and elongated as well. The divergences continue, and volume was quite light today, as well.
Here is the daily chart.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((b)) Wave Up |
A Fibonacci ruler has been added to show where the 1.618 external retrace on minute wave ((a)) is located.
Have an excellent start to your week.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ, I have been a loyal reader follower for many years. I have not posted many questions because I did not have all the tools (futures quotes / EW oscillator) but now on board with these. Hoping to be more involved and ask better questions specific to degree now.
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear you've gotten the tools!
DeleteStating the obvious: Looks like wave ((c)) of B is in progress
ReplyDelete..always a possibility when a potential triangle forms.
DeleteIt appears the triangle overlap was tagged right at the required price. "b" has been exceeded. The thrust measure (min 75%) shows as 3110. Does failure to reach the minimum thrust invalidate a triangle?
ReplyDeleteThanks
no.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteSo, the thrust requirement is just a guideline? Or just a Neely"ism"?
GW I have not heard of the min thrust measure 75% I will add that to my tool kit. However, another target for the final wave that I have seen from ET is the price distance from A to B of the triangle (about 100 points in this case). Then add that to the top of the breakout point which was 3055. This would make the target for the final wave to be about 3155.
DeleteIt is neither a guideline nor a rule. It is a price target. Attaining the target provides one information about market strength. Not attaining the target tells you another thing about market strength.
Deleteare we still in the triangle or has wave C of big wave B already started?
ReplyDeletesee below.
DeleteAll aspects of even the larger hourly triangle worked out well in the overnight futures. Wave e, down, crossed back down over wave (y) by a few ticks, and also traded back under the EMA-34.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/X0NoMMM3/
Further, the triangle's b wave has now been exceeded to upside.
TJ
I like the new format and think you did the right thing. Sorry that it means more work for you. But I will like it more not having to sift through the other comments to get to the EW content.
ReplyDeleteAgree!
DeleteSo glad T.J took care of it. The web has become a place infested by the worse kind of cretins who make it virtually impossible to carry on an intelligent conversation. I was just about to take a hike after the third post by the most recent ignoramus. Thanks T.J!
DeleteYes, thank you all for your desire to learn. Makes my education easier. Remember, every classroom has its clown.
DeleteWhat would be the minimum fib relationship we should expect for (z) vs (w)? .618?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Hi Joe can you please give us your thoughts on the primary wave breakdown? Your analysis is impeccable
ReplyDeleteIf you don't mind - regarding gold,do you think it was a leading diagonal wave 1 with the correction completed today? Thank you
ReplyDeleteThere was only a-b-c down, and a-b-c up to yesterday's 78.6% 1,760 high. The pattern is a long, long way off from completing a downward expanding diagonal, because the a-b-c down would only be wave '1' of such a pattern. Can still equally be a triangle, but not below the prior 1,665 low. Elliott Wave only allows one to do so much, and I know what you are trying to do here, but I would rather you concentrate on counting properly.
DeleteThere is one way to count the NQ as completed as of today's 4-hr chart. The diagonal would complete the larger daily count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zztHd2eK/
TJ
it is 'possible' there could be one more spike high, but not required.
DeleteMeanwhile, back at the very short term 5-min ES, we're trying to see if it can defeat the 3,069 high in five waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q-sjp
TJ
reminder ... (z) waves have a propensity to fail. Getting close to failure.
Delete..downward overlap on wave ((1)), up.
Delete..two interesting fractals here ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q-t8c
TJ
..busted the 3,058 down fractal lower.
Delete..now draw the downward base channel
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q-tdy
TJ
..because the base channel busted .. can only be a triangle "b" wave.
Delete..now in 'c' of (z)
DeleteES higher high
DeleteIs a truncation in an A wave unusual?
ReplyDelete