ES futures were higher overnight, and closed mid-range above the key 18-day SMA and 34-day EMAs. So, the daily bias is up. The daily chart is below. Nothing has changed, so far.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Higher High Day |
As long as higher highs are made - and prices remain in the channel - the up trend may continue. It is interesting the last daily high at minute ((x)) did not diverge on the MACD.
Bears are aware the up move to today's high may currently be counted as an expanded flat after the spike down four day's ago. The up wave, c, is almost precisely 2.618 x the a wave of that move, added to the b wave. That would be a legitimate way for the market to move lower - see the chart at this LINK.
The difficulty is that the market did little in the middle of the day to satisfy the beginnings of a dramatic third wave lower. Price would need to get under the 3,060 level before making a new high for the expanded flat idea to really activate a down count. That has not happened yet. Contrariwise, if price goes over the 2.618 extension, that would tend to rule it out, as expanded flats rarely get longer than that.
I have no issue if the market moves higher or lower here, as both are completely legitimate. There are some times when one simply must be neutral and look for clues.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The difficulty is that the market did little in the middle of the day to satisfy the beginnings of a dramatic third wave lower. Price would need to get under the 3,060 level before making a new high for the expanded flat idea to really activate a down count. That has not happened yet. Contrariwise, if price goes over the 2.618 extension, that would tend to rule it out, as expanded flats rarely get longer than that.
I have no issue if the market moves higher or lower here, as both are completely legitimate. There are some times when one simply must be neutral and look for clues.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
In the ES do we have a ABCDE triangular top? on E now. Japan opens in 20 minutes and that should be a clue.
ReplyDeleteThat worked out. Thx.
DeleteJust a topping process...The NDX needs today (could finish or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting intraday on the 1-min ES
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r5wx9
TJ
The Dow doesn't matter or the SPX ...it's the NDX. The NDX is close to exhaustion. The Fed never learns, They think they are more powerful than the markets.
Delete...this is somewhat of a nonsense, and overly general comment. The other indicies matter, they just represent different groupings of different mixtures of stocks. The FED is doing what you are telling it to through your elected representatives. Want to change it? Tell them. This is not a site for that general type of 'grousing'. It is for trying to count waves.
DeleteHere's how this is playing out, so far. If a true diagonal, then start of diagonal should be taken out in less time than it took to build.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r5xlz
..If not, then consider it as part of a larger triangle.
TJ
ET, If time expires (which it has not yet) on this diagonal and the diagonal is not taken out to the downside or a higher high. What is typically concluded is it considered invalidated?
DeleteStart of diagonal was just exceeded lower in less time than it took to build. True diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r5xtw
Now, it must be placed in the larger context.
TJ
ES new lower local low.
Delete..chart of new low ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r5x-a
TJ
@Tjchuck, it often (not always) means it was a leading diagonal, not an ending diagonal.
DeleteTJ I get you point,but at some point the count is at moment of clarity. For me it was and I thought the action of the NDX was the clarifier.
Delete@458african - I believe I illustrated quite clearly what clarity I had, when I did. I even provided an exact way to tell on a 1-minute intraday chart. Who else does that?
Delete@458african - all of your future posts are being sent to spam for inappropriate language, and just a bad 'holier than thou' attitude in general.
Delete