It is clear the big crash did not get started downward this morning, even though the futures gapped lower. Still it is likely some larger downward price movement will occur relatively soon. After you read this post, you will see what is being thought of. Still, in considering degree labeling over the weekend, I could find one way for prices in the S&P500 to go 'over the top' as they have in the NDX. That proposed chart for the daily ES futures is below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Possibility for Double Zigzag |
So, if you are a reader of this blog, you have noticed we said the downward wave to what is now shown as red A is larger in price than the prior black B. This likely means the wave is not a minute wave, and should be of the same degree - or larger - than the Minor B wave. But, what if red A is a Minor A wave? Then, we would have had three-waves-up to the red wave labeled Minor B and the expected downward movement would be the red Minor C wave, down, to make an Intermediate (X) wave. That might allow prices to go over the top, again, in an Intermediate (Y) wave, and that might successfully conclude a Primary ((B)) wave.
Such a Primary ((B)) wave would then be longer in price and time than its smaller degree Intermediate (C) wave down to the March 23rd low, and it might allow the Primary ((B)) wave to attain the 90% or greater needed for the ((B)) wave of a flat - awaiting Primary ((C)) down.
Food for thought.
Food for thought.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
Here's an update on the intraday. Looks like three waves up of ((C)), so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r7nhv
TJ
Thank you Joe.
ReplyDeleteFew days ago Neely commented in his FAQ page that when the B of an ABC is short in time compared with A and C, is an indication that is part of a triangle or a seven waves formation (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). Here we can see that really is a good hint.
Welcome 6Q, and thanks for confirming.
DeleteES 'can' be counted as another five waves up within ((C)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r7oiq
TJ
Caution commuters: the red train may be leaving the station. Here is the NQ futures 1-min; perfect ending expanding diagonal, or (b) wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r7or4
TJ
..start of NQ diagonal exceeded in less time than it took to build. It qualifies as a real ending diagonal.
Delete..an hour up; fifteen minutes down.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r7ou8
Deleteok .. well, they took the NQ a couple ticks over the top; so, regardless, the expanding pattern was a "b" wave, and now likely into "5" up. They may want to make a higher high, for a Tuesday reversal.
Deletenq is in the process of confirming the breakout above the previous all time high'
Deleteone the commuters realize the train is leaving the station
and the breakout is for real
11000 nq will be seen quickly
The only surprise in the cash session was the last wave up today. If red A down is 'three', then the red B can also be the B wave of a flat (X).
DeleteAs far as I can tell, there is no trigger to begin a downward count until the fractal in red is broken lower under the EMA-34. (This is not trading or investment advice).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r7p97
Have a very good night all, and stay safe.
TJ
None of the real Peter Navarro 'flub' shows up in the cash session.
ReplyDelete"Stocks rose on Tuesday after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro clarified that the U.S.-China trade deal is not over."
https://invst.ly/r80oc
TJ
..essentially .. those are typical EW expectations.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Im remembering wrong, but arent futures to be used to correctly determine degrees?
ReplyDeleteThanks
yes, because not all prices show up in cash, as this example shows, and it is very difficult to determine 'number of trading hours' in cash.
DeleteThe first 'five-waves-up' definitely has overlaps, and still looking like a diagonal - just larger one than yesterday. Then, this wave up is overlapped (orange), but the start of this most recent up-wave is not overlapped (blue).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r80zm
So, the current up wave could turn into an impulse if the low holds.
TJ
Amit, please use the "Reply" link to reply to a response and keep the threads together so others can follow where the questions come from.
ReplyDeleteNo. Not 'every'. For example, an internal wave ii correction does not have to visit the larger wave 4th area. "Many" B waves, 2nd waves, and larger degree fourth waves visit the prior 4th wave correction area.
..more primarily degree labeling considerations. But, yes, primary ((C)) could visit the prior wave ((4)) low.
ReplyDeleteHere are the best options I see for completing a Minor B wave upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r857f
The cash closes have tended to the upside of late, so I can't rule out a developing triangle, but there are insufficient waves for it currently. But, if this is/was a "triple zigzag" with a failure, then we should see some significant price movement lower. Maybe look to follow fractal breaks for counting (not trading or investment advice).
TJ
..below 3,120 would invalidate a smaller triangle scenario. There' could be a larger one, but nowhere close to that yet.
Deletefyi .. 3,125 is 78.6 % from the top; typical triangle point; let's see if we push through or not.
Delete..now below 3,125 and 3,120 thanks to the margin requirements over at Interactive-Brokers at 15:50 EDT.
Delete