When Not

A lot of people on the internet want to tell you what their Elliott Wave count is, or what all six of them for the same symbol are. As I noted in the comments for the previous days' posts, we have the potential to make a 1.618 wave down. Yes, you will see that in the ES 2-hr chart, below.

But, instead of focusing on the count, per se, I want to focus on how you will know that the count below is not working. 

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Possible 1.618 Wave

Notice the red dotted line that goes from Minor B to wave black minute ((ii)), or circle-ii. Wave black minute ((ii)) is a 50% pull-back. And, by itself, because it is much more than 38.2%, that retrace wave is deep enough to support a 1.618 wave downward. However, we want to look for post-pattern behavior that confirms that a 1.618 wave should unfold. 

The first evidence of that will be that wave blue minuet (ii) should stay below the red dotted line. If it does, that would mean it meets our expectations that the market is in fact weak enough to make a 1.618 wave lower. In other words, all of wave black minute ((iii)), circle-iii, is below a line from 0 - ((ii)). The 'zero point' in this case is red wave Minor B.

If this does not occur it would be a major red flag and warning that the downward count is not progressing as expected. 

Yes, everyone else on the internet will tell you what their wave count is for the next 99 years or more. I prefer to concentrate on clues that can tell you that a current count is working as expected, or it is not.

Hopefully, the reminder will be a bit more helpful to you.

Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.

TraderJoe