Overall, because five-waves-down were counted using degree labeling yesterday, we were expecting an upward retrace day today. Yesterday, we gave clear directions on various levels of invalidation of a potential upward contracting diagonal, which was fine until the overnight trading. The pattern did invalidate in the overnight and formed a flat instead, which we picked up on when we looked at it this morning. That also provided another lower low day. We provided the 3,065 level as a first target for an expanded flat, if the failed flat we woke up to repaired itself. It did. First, here is the daily chart. See the comments from the prior post if you have questions.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((ii)) |
The first target of 3,065 was met and exceeded. Today likely represented part or all of the minute ((ii)) wave of the downward Minor C wave of the potential Intermediate (X) wave.
Next here is the intraday chart.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Flat Wave |
There are two ways this upward wave could reach the prior wave (iv). It could gap up in the overnight, or it could form a very messy expanding diagonal. The later option depends more on a gap down and overlaps. We'll address that if we see it.
If the wave completely falls apart in the overnight, and trades below 3,010 then the upward wave may have finished as a complex w-x-y wave that you see in red. The wave has done everything it needs to do, upward, but it could easily do more.
Because the wave has already retraced more than 50% of the downward wave, it can easily support an extended 1.618 x minute ((i)) wave for a minute ((iii))'rd wave lower.
This is still time to stay flexible, calm and patient and maybe check in a couple of times to see how things are going in the over-night.
Have a great start to your evening.
TraderJoe
While it is very close currently, I dont believe it has quite reached the 50% retrace level as of yet (it looks likely to do so). Perhaps Im measuring incorrectly. Fwiw
ReplyDelete..you are the correct one. I inadvertently measured to the bottom of the (b) wave in error.
DeleteHere is the overnight wave-counting screen, including updated Pivot Points and local fractals. Due to overlap, already, the count is currently (w)-(x)-(y), which may be complete. It 'may' be possible for the waves to extend up to the prior fourth wave if another (x) and (z) is added, but it is not required.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r9d4-
Local count depends on which of the two fractals breaks first.
TJ
The red (down) fractal has broken first, and now trading below the daily PP. This is a big warning on the count because a new (z) wave, upwards, would now have to recycle with another a, b, c - not impossible but more difficult.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r9dj7
TJ
.. now below prior wave ((2)), and below the S1 daily pivot. Wave iii > means it is currently on-going and there isn't a good enough turn yet to say it has stopped.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r9e73
TJ
..further update; looks like a fourth wave could be a running triangle or a flat.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r9gy-
TJ
ES new daily low.
Delete..with less than 180 candles on the 5-min chart, it looks like there was a decent enough signature for a fourth wave as a 'running triangle'. The running triangle with it's lower ((B)) wave would still be a bearish pattern, overall, at this stage.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r9hkm
TJ
Thanks for all the updates! Excellent calls!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the guidance this week Mr. Joe.
ReplyDeleteI've realized mid week that as waves were making progress lower (and breaking recently learned rules) that the overall possible C wave up was not going to happen. As confirmation I noticed that you stopped showing that graph.
Thanks for your brilliant work and teachings! It works!
Joe,
ReplyDeleteYou are magic!!!
You have a wonderful weekend.
you, too! David.
DeleteET if we end the 4th wave as a failed expanded flat where you have wave c of the triangle then wave v at the low closely approximates wave i (i.e. 5 = 1).
ReplyDelete..that works too.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete