One Fibonacci Relationship

Try as I might, I can find only one, good simple Fibonacci relationship in the current wave structure on the ES 4-Hr chart.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Three Waves

That relationship is shown as (c) = 0.618 x (a) to a very, very close approximation.  Yes, this would still be in a minute ((b)) wave count, upward, overall. Perhaps it will be a running b wave.

First, let me state very clearly that I am showing an alternate count of 1,2,3 which would be in Minor C. Don't worry. If Minor C occurs, I will downgrade those labels to minute wave status. Right now, I just want clear numerals on the chart. But, for Minor C, there should at least be a good fourth and fifth waves higher. They are not in evidence. They could be later. They are not now.

The rationale for this count is as follows: 1) as we were counting upward from the end of the flat, I remember waiting for 'days and days'  for the fourth wave, iv, of (a) to complete. There were first three-waves down, but the wave refused & refused to make the new high. Then the new high occurred, and it ground on and on. The wave iv of (a) location shown is the only one that looks like a fourth wave on the EWO. 2) There is a large sideways correction in the middle of the chart. I was able to count it as a triangle in the futures, and just a shorter triangle in cash - as you know. A triangle at this location is very, very unusual except in corrective waves. 3) Today's price spike on the employment report drove the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) almost to a new high, but not quite. It may go there yet. 4) There are only 93 candles on the chart which is less than ideal compared to the desired 120 - 160 for making a decision via The Eight Fold Path methodology. But a 2-Hr chart puts 186 candles on the chart, and that is roughly equally bad. 5) If there is actually no triangle in the middle, then the best I can see is a sideways second wave.

Even though price gains are large, something just seems very 'weird' about this wave. It is very, very hard for most people to count, and that is often the very hallmark of a "b" wave. By far and away the largest gains are coming in the overnight session. That is not necessarily odd, but a gap on a cash chart used to be something of a rarity. Something to notice, and perhaps retrace into. But, there are now so many of them. If U.S. institutions are not doing the buying, is it possible some foreign interest has been told to buy U.S. equities - perhaps as repayment for creating the Covid-19 problem? I'll never know. I'm the last one they tell. Something is going on. Why all the massive evening gaps?

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe