Many Elliott wave sites / videos called for higher highs today. Yet, we labeled yesterday as the likely high of the Minor B wave (red in the daily chart below), with an expectation of downward movement from the hourly chart shown in yesterday's post. That occurred with the low of today breaking below yesterday's low and the low of the day prior.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower Low Day |
Today may be counted as five waves down with an extended fifth wave. It could be a first sub-wave of the Minor C wave down, as it was shorter than Minor A downward. We are watching the overnight for signs of a retracing wave. The retracing wave can be, but does not have to be 50 - 62% - or more - if we are still in a first extended wave, provided, by degree labeling, that a first extended wave does not become longer than wave A.
Here is the intraday labeling from the last two days. In today's down wave wave iii is just slightly longer than wave i, and there is very good alternation with no overlap.
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| ES Futures - 15 Minutes - Impulse |
This impulse shows the case where, when wave iii & i are nearly equal, but wave iii is definitely longer, then the fifth wave can be the extended wave in the sequence.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
ET,
ReplyDeleteI regards to your statement "As far as I can tell, there is no trigger to begin a downward count until the fractal in red is broken lower under the EMA-34. (This is not trading or investment advice)."
I was looking at the twin peaks trade idea. I was able to board the train as it's leaving the yard. The AO is showing the strongest sectors diverging. I'll note with triple divergence on the AO for technology. Financial has crossed 0 line. I'm going to work on a graph next week as I think these sectors might diverge as we move into wave 5.
If you move your B to one high earlier which is one tick higher than your B, then it becomes a LD today we had 3rd and 4th. And perhaps 5 overnight in futures
ReplyDeleteI don't believe the overlaps are there to support that count. You would have to post a chart.
DeleteThe clearest pattern on the overnight chart is the three-waves down labeled as ((A)), ((B)), ((C)) in brown down to exactly the 1.382 Fibonacci external retrace of the prior up waves.
ReplyDeleteThe question now is whether the market wishes to live with the 'failed flat', or will go on to make an expanded flat to the levels shown.
https://invst.ly/r8xpa
From a 'time' perspective, the market could use more hours spent making a second wave.
TJ
Here's just an example of a typical 'intraday' wave-counting screen. Futures 30-minutes, with Bollinger Bands (18,2), Classic Day-Trader's Pivot Points, most recent clear fractals, up & down, and slow stochastic indicator.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r8z3s
This is intended to be a "one-level-lower fractal' of the daily chart.
TJ
..market has now added a couple more clear fractals as price continues to whip around the 18-period SMA, "the line in the sand".
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r8-fz
TJ
..first green (up) fractal back has been exceeded higher.
Delete..not too much to update at this time. A couple of new fractals have formed, but previous price movement has been largely sideways. Of note, the sideways wave is now 'longer in time' than the down wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r9250
TJ
..the two green (up) fractals back have just broken higher.
Delete..all up fractals back have been broken. The flat is no longer a failed flat.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r9283
TJ
..reminder 1.618 x (a) = 3,065; not quite there yet.
DeleteThere is 3,065; first target reached, and daily Pivot Point reached.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r92f1
TJ
Here's the futures settlement. There were two half-hourly closes above the intraday Bollinger Band, reducing the odds of the next bar closing outside the upper band to 3%. The closing bar settled just under the band.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r92x4
Price during the day exceeded the 50% retrace level, that means the first wave, lower, can support a longer 1.618 extension wave if it wants to. The 62% retrace at 3,096 and the 2.618 x (a) level at 3,1102 would represent a 'confluence of Fib levels', and the prior ivth wave.
TJ